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Baseline Edition 2026
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Strategic Systems Report 2026: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

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ReportsSR-04

Strategic Systems

Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026

Baseline Edition 2026NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number: NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close: 30 September 2026, cut DC-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Status: Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI: Issued at deposit
Licence: CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as: Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Strategic Systems Report 2026: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-04/

Contents

·
Executive summary
1
Chapter 1. Small volumes, large dependence
2
Chapter 2. Key findings
3
Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline
4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
5
Chapter 5. Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze
6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
7
Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda
8
Chapter 8. Systems in depth
A
Annex A. Methodology
B
Annex B. Data appendix
C
Annex C. References and record

Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026
Executive summary

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables9 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

Critical minerals are the small-volume inputs that large industries depend on: lithium, cobalt, graphite, rare earths, gallium, germanium and copper. The 2025 and 2026 evidence shows supply concentration turning into disruption. Excluding rare earths, the average share of the top refining country rose to 72% in 2025, up from 70% in 2023². China produced 270,000 tonnes of the 390,000 tonnes of rare earths mined worldwide in 2025, and 99% of primary low-purity gallium¹. In April 2025 China placed licence controls on seven heavy rare earths and announced an October 2025 expansion; the status of that expansion at the close is not bound⁵. The DRC replaced a cobalt export ban with quotas of up to 96,600 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027, and cobalt metal approached USD 58,000 a tonne in the first quarter of 2026¹². The IEA estimates that full rare earth controls would put USD 6.5 trillion a year of downstream production outside China at risk². Investment fell 9% in 2025, while public finance commitments in advanced economies reached about USD 65 billion². Responses include the G7 roadmap of October 2025, a US price floor of USD 110 a kilogram for NdPr oxide and the EU 2030 benchmarks¹⁹²⁰¹¹. This baseline reads these events as mechanisms, not as a list. It places no country or company in a league table, attributes no motive and recommends no policy.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the critical minerals baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

Yes: the top refiner averaged 72% excluding rare earths in 2025.²
Is mineral supply concentrated?Reported
Yes: China placed licence controls on seven heavy rare earths in April 2025. The status of the October 2025 expansion at the close is not bound.⁵
Are export controls real?Reported
Yes: the DRC caps cobalt exports, and Zimbabwe and Mozambique limited raw exports.²⁹
Do producers also restrict supply?Reported
About USD 6.5 trillion a year of downstream output in the rare earth case.²
What is at stake economically?Reported
Slowly: rare earth refining concentration eased modestly, and refining lags mining.²
Is diversification under way?Reported
The G7, the EU, the United States and Australia use stockpiles, price floors and benchmarks.²¹¹²⁰²²
Who is acting?Reported
Little so far: the United States recycled USD 18 billion of critical minerals in 2025.¹
What does recycling add?Reported
A lapse of Chinese controls that overlaps the cobalt quota and thin stockpiles. SCN-SR04-MAG-01
What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-004

The DRC replaced a February 2025 cobalt export ban with quotas of up to 96,600 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 tonnes for strategic reserves, and cobalt metal approached USD 58,000 a tonne in the first quarter of 2026.

Figure S.1Cobalt: mine output and the export cap, tonnes

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
DRC mine output, 2025 (estimate)		230,000
DRC export cap a year, 2026 and 2027		96,600
of which strategic reserves		9,600

Source: USGS¹. Output and exports are different measures; the cap covers exports of contained cobalt.

A producer that holds about two thirds of mined supply can move the market by decision. The quota also reserves 9,600 tonnes for state use and lets the regulator move unused quota to that reserve, which adds discretion for buyers²¹⁰. Refined stocks stayed high, so prices of intermediates and refined metal diverged².

S.4At a glance

72%

top refiner average, 2025²

270,000tonnes

China rare earth output, 2025¹

99%

China primary gallium, 2025¹

96,600tonnes

DRC cobalt cap a year¹

6.5USD trillion

output at risk a year²

65USD billion

public finance, 2025²

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading critical minerals as one dependent network.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people mineral risk arrives as a late car, a dearer battery or a delayed device.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. A disruption puts very large downstream output at risk, public finance has grown fast, and refining projects outside the dominant supplier cost more.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Mineral risk is well described event by event and thinly measured as a system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of the world’s critical minerals and strategic materials and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a mineral-security ranking, a trade-policy position, an investment recommendation or an assessment of any producer, company or government. Mining, trade and stockpile decisions rest with owners, regulators and competent authorities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 critical minerals edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10Shanghai Metals Market (ed.), Congo creates strategic cobalt reserve to influence supply and prices, regulator says (news report of 16 April 2026; reserve run by ARECOMS; 10% of national export volumes, 9,600 tonnes in 2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026
Chapter 1

Small volumes, large dependence

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

4 min read2 figures1 table5 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

Where is critical minerals risk concentrated?
Which couplings carry critical minerals shocks into other systems?
Which critical minerals capabilities hold under compound stress?
What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

Narrative
Headline finding
Lead figure
Five mechanism chapters
Twelve-domain reading
Sector screens
Dependency matrix
Risk objects
Capability ladder
Scenario
Three lenses
Portfolio

1.2The argument

Critical minerals are usually reported by commodity: lithium, cobalt, graphite, rare earths. The 2025 and 2026 evidence reads them as one dependent network. A few countries refine most of the supply, trade controls and quotas can move prices within months, and small volumes underpin very large downstream output²¹.

The causes repeat. China placed licence controls on seven heavy rare earths in April 2025⁵. The DRC capped cobalt exports from October 2025⁹. Zimbabwe and Mozambique limited raw exports of lithium and graphite². Prices followed: cobalt rose by around 130% and strategic minor minerals more than doubled².

Diversification is slow. Refining and magnet capacity lag mining outside the dominant supplier, and refining projects there face capital costs 20% to over 150% higher². In rare earths, diversified refining capacity equals about two thirds of expected mined supply by 2035, but planned magnet capacity only one third².

The edition therefore asks the same four questions of every event: what was the common cause, how did it spread, what was shared, and what threshold was crossed. It attributes no motive and places no producer in a league table.

Figure 1.1How concentrated is the supply of key minerals? Share of world output, 2025, %

For each mineral one country holds most of the output. The shares come from different measures, so the bars compare reach, not risk, and refining shares are higher still for several minerals¹².

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
China, primary low-purity gallium		99
China, natural graphite		82
DRC, mined cobalt		73
China, rare earth mine output		69

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

99%

China, primary low-purity gallium¹

82%

China, natural graphite¹

73%

DRC, mined cobalt¹

≈69%

China, rare earth mine output¹

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The critical minerals-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their critical minerals content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

Strong
Moderate
Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, to	WAT	ENE	FOO	HLT	BIO
WAT Water	·	WEAK hydro · cooling	WEAK irrigation	WEAK safe supply	MODERATE mine water · tailings
ENE Energy	MODERATE pumping · treatment · acid	·	MODERATE sulphur · acid · fertiliser	WEAK power	MODERATE mining footprint
FOO Food	WEAK withdrawals	WEAK bioenergy	·	WEAK nutrition	WEAK land conversion
HLT Health	WEAK workforce	WEAK workforce	WEAK labour	·	WEAK residues
BIO Biodiversity	WEAK catchments	WEAK hydrology	WEAK pollination	WEAK zoonoses	·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

01
TRD → MIN → FIN
A licence on heavy rare earths halts magnet supply and cuts vehicle output.
Reported 2025 controls²⁵
02
MIN → FIN
A producer quota lifts cobalt prices by around 130%.
Reported 2025 to 2026²⁹
03
INF → MIN → DAT
Weak smelter fees threaten by-product recovery of gallium and germanium.
Reported 2026 fees²
04
ENE → MIN → FOO
A Gulf shutdown curbs sulphur and acid used in processing and fertiliser.
Reported 2026²
05
MIN → BIO
Mine expansion triggers offsite deforestation.
Reported Africa 2001 to 2020²⁷

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27Morton, O., Bousfield, C.G., Dégny Valé, P. et al., Mining triggers extensive additional deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa, Nature, 2026 (16,627 mines, 2001 to 2020). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026
Chapter 2

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the critical minerals baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables10 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-004

Figure 2.1Cobalt: mine output and the export cap, tonnes

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
DRC mine output, 2025 (estimate)		230,000
DRC export cap a year, 2026 and 2027		96,600
of which strategic reserves		9,600

Source: USGS¹. Output and exports are different measures; the cap covers exports of contained cobalt.

Implication

What would move it

The allocation framework beyond 2027, use of the strategic reserve and Indonesian cobalt output would each move this finding.

2.2Minerals

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-001
Excluding rare earths, the average share of the top refining country rose to 72% in 2025, up from 70% in 2023, according to the IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026.²
ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-002
World rare earth mine output was an estimated 390,000 tonnes in 2025, of which China produced 270,000 tonnes; the United States relies on imports for more than two thirds of the rare earth compounds and metals it consumes.¹
ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-004
The DRC replaced a February 2025 cobalt export ban with quotas of up to 96,600 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 tonnes for strategic reserves, and cobalt metal approached USD 58,000 a tonne in the first quarter of 2026.¹²⁹
ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-005
China accounted for 99% of world primary low-purity gallium production in 2025, and European gallium prices were about five times Chinese domestic prices in 2026.¹²
ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-010
A July 2025 agreement between the US Department of Defense and MP Materials includes USD 400 million of preferred equity and a ten-year price floor of USD 110 a kilogram for NdPr oxide, and MP produced 2,599 tonnes of NdPr oxide in 2025, up 101%.²⁰²¹

2.3Trade

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-003
China placed licence controls on seven heavy rare earths in April 2025 and announced an October 2025 expansion, and the number of Chinese tariff codes under export control has tripled since 2023. The status of the expansion at the close is not bound.²⁵

2.4Finance

ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006
The IEA estimates that fully implemented rare earth export controls would put USD 6.5 trillion a year of downstream production outside China at risk, and a full disruption of battery-grade graphite trade over USD 300 billion a year.²
ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007
Critical mineral investment fell 9% in 2025, and public finance commitments in advanced economies reached about USD 65 billion, over four times the 2023 level, with a gap between commitments and disbursements.²

2.5Infrastructure

ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-008
The benchmark copper smelter fee was settled at USD 0 a tonne in 2026, China’s share of global copper smelting capacity rose from about 15% in 2005 to 50% in 2025, and many strategic minor minerals are recovered as by-products of base metal smelting.²

2.6POL

ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-POL-009
In June 2026 G7 leaders set a target to reduce dependency on a single non-G7 supplier of rare earths and permanent magnets to below 60% by 2030, and the G7 roadmap of October 2025 sets minimum criteria for standards-based markets.²¹⁹
ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-POL-011
The EU Critical Raw Materials Act sets 2030 benchmarks of 10% of consumption from extraction, 40% from processing, 25% from recycling and no more than 65% from one third country, and the Commission adopted the RESourceEU action plan on 3 December 2025.¹¹¹³

2.7Systemic

Expert inputEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is the October 2025 Chinese control expansion taking effect in a way that overlaps the DRC cobalt quota and thin stockpiles. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10Shanghai Metals Market (ed.), Congo creates strategic cobalt reserve to influence supply and prices, regulator says (news report of 16 April 2026; reserve run by ARECOMS; 10% of national export volumes, 9,600 tonnes in 2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21MP Materials, MP Materials Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, 26 February 2026 (REO in concentrate 50,692 tonnes; NdPr oxide 2,599 tonnes; first NdFeB magnets on commercial equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025; company-reported figures). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13European Commission and the EU Circular Economy Stakeholder Platform, European Commission adopts RESourceEU Action Plan (platform post of 10 December 2025; plan adopted 3 December 2025). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026
Chapter 3

Systems and sectors at baseline

4 min read0 figures2 tables9 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

MIN · Refining

Top refiner average share, excluding rare earths

72%

up from 70% in 2023.

Reported2025IEA²

TRD · Controls

Chinese tariff codes under export control, against 2023

status of the October 2025 expansion at the close is not bound.

Reported2025IEA²

MIN · Cobalt

DRC export cap a year, 2026 and 2027

96,600tonnes

less than half of 2024 production.

Reported2025USGS¹ · IEA²

FIN · Value at risk

Downstream output outside China at risk, rare earths

6.5USD trillion

about 7% of combined GDP; modelled.

Reported2026IEA²

MIN · Rare earths

World mine output

390,000tonnes

China 270,000 tonnes.

Reported2025USGS¹

SYS · Cross-system

Public finance commitments, advanced economies

65USD billion

over four times 2023; disbursement lags.

Reported2025IEA²

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through critical minerals, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries critical minerals risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	Sulphuric acid and water underpin mineral processing; evidence not consolidated here.	WAT → MIN	Inferred EQL 2
ENE	The 2026 Gulf conflict curtailed aluminium and sulphur supply; energy minerals drive demand.	ENE ↔ MIN	Reported EQL 3
FOO	Sulphuric acid links mineral processing and fertiliser; China curbed acid exports in May 2026.	MIN ↔ FOO	Reported EQL 3
HLT	Imaging and device minerals such as gadolinium; not consolidated here.	MIN → HLT	Inferred EQL 2
BIO	Mining triggered 187,000 hectares of direct deforestation and about 34 offsite hectares per direct hectare in Africa²⁷.	MIN → BIO	Reported EQL 4
CLI	Lithium demand rose by nearly 30% in 2024, led by vehicles and storage³.	CLI → MIN	Reported EQL 3
INF	Smelters are strategic midstream infrastructure; the benchmark copper fee was USD 0 a tonne in 2026.	INF ↔ MIN	Reported EQL 3
FIN	Investment fell 9% in 2025; public finance commitments reached about USD 65 billion.	FIN → MIN	Reported EQL 3
DAT	Gallium and germanium underpin chips and optics; data-centre servers are a growing exposure.	MIN → DAT	Reported EQL 3
AIC	Semiconductors, robotics and AI raise demand for gallium, germanium and indium.	AIC → MIN	Inferred EQL 2
MIN	The core system: a 72% top-refiner average and 270,000 tonnes of Chinese rare earth output.	the core system	Reported EQL 4
TRD	Chinese tariff codes under export control tripled since 2023; heavy rare earth licences placed in April 2025.	TRD ↔ MIN	Reported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on critical minerals, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	one mineral shock reaches magnets, batteries and chips²	control lapse with cobalt quota	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	water and acid in processing	acid supply shock	THIN
GS-02	Energy	lithium, graphite and copper demand from storage and grids²	storage and grid build-out	GOOD
GS-03	Food and agrifood	acid and sulphur link to fertiliser²	acid export curbs	THIN
GS-04	Health	imaging and device minerals	specialty material gaps	THIN
GS-05	Finance and economy	USD 6.5 trillion of downstream output at risk in one case²	price shock	PARTIAL
GS-06	Development	producer revenue and export policies²	export restrictions	PARTIAL
GS-07	Climate	demand for clean-energy minerals³	demand outpacing supply	PARTIAL
GS-08	Disaster	Gulf conflict curtailed aluminium and sulphur²	regional shutdown	THIN
GS-09	Infrastructure	projected copper supply gap of 25% in 2035²	copper shortfall	GOOD
GS-10	Cities	urban demand for batteries and cables	thin evidence here	THIN
GS-11	Biodiversity	mining deforestation in Africa²⁷	mine expansion	PARTIAL
GS-12	Earth observation	the Earth MRI programme remaps US resources¹	data access	THIN
GS-13	Cyber and digital	chips and optics depend on gallium and germanium¹	single-supplier gaps	PARTIAL
GS-14	Policy	stockpiles, price floors and benchmarks²¹¹¹⁹	implementation gaps	GOOD
GS-15	Science	cascade and trade-network models published²³²⁴²⁵	data at operating scale	PARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27Morton, O., Bousfield, C.G., Dégny Valé, P. et al., Mining triggers extensive additional deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa, Nature, 2026 (16,627 mines, 2001 to 2020). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23Ouyang, X., Liu, L., Liu, Q. et al., Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain, Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 2026 (trade-linked flows, 1998 to 2019). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24Liu, X., Huang, H., An, F. et al., Resilience assessment of lithium ion battery supply chains under critical mineral shortages, iScience, 2026 (multi-tier network of nine battery manufacturers). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25Han, Y., Wang, P., Liao, Z. et al., Exploring the divergence of rare earth trade networks with a global simulation model, iScience, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026
Chapter 4

Risks and capability

Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

6 min read0 figures1 table20 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

ReportedEQL 4RSK-SR04-TRD-001
Export controls on rare earths and magnets take effect
Driver
the status of the October 2025 expansion at the close is not bound⁵; post-close, context only: a suspension reported to end on 10 November 2026⁷
Exposure
vehicle, electronics, defence and data-centre makers outside China²
Vulnerability
refining and magnet capacity lag mining outside the dominant supplier²
Capacity
licences; stockpiles; new magnet production in Texas²¹
Cascade
TRD → MIN → FIN
Horizon
1 year
ReportedEQL 4RSK-SR04-MIN-002
Cobalt quota squeeze
Driver
a DRC export cap of up to 96,600 tonnes a year¹⁹
Exposure
battery and superalloy makers
Vulnerability
no allocation framework beyond 2027²
Capacity
Indonesian by-product supply of about 14% of world output¹; recycling
Cascade
MIN → FIN
Horizon
1 to 3 years
InferredEQL 3RSK-SR04-INF-003
Smelter stress and loss of by-product recovery
Driver
smelter fees at USD 0 a tonne and negative spot charges²
Exposure
gallium, germanium, indium and antimony
Vulnerability
utilisation below 70% outside China in 2025²
Capacity
targeted support for recovery and refining²
Cascade
INF → MIN → DAT
Horizon
1 to 5 years
InferredEQL 3RSK-SR04-POL-004
Slow diversification against concentrated refining
Driver
higher costs outside the dominant supplier²
Exposure
importing economies
Vulnerability
refining and magnet projects lag mining²
Capacity
price floors, stockpiles and public finance²²⁰
Cascade
FIN → MIN
Horizon
5 to 10 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
Function	Level	Strongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigation	EXISTS	due diligence and responsible-mining standards widespread; uptake uneven³³³⁵
Monitoring and observation	ADEQUATE	agency statistics and outlooks published every year¹²
Early warning	LISTED	no common cross-mineral warning; an IEA programme exists⁴⁸
Preparedness and planning	EXISTS	national critical mineral lists and an IEA programme¹⁶¹⁷⁴⁸
Redundancy and reserves	EXISTS	US, Australian and DRC reserves announced; use not yet tested²
Response	LISTED	an oil stock release in March 2026 is the analogue; no mineral release found²
Continuity of critical services	LISTED	offtake and price-floor arrangements; not consolidated²⁰
Recovery	LISTED	restart time after a shock not consolidated
Adaptation	EXISTS	substitution and circularity studies published²⁸²⁹
Social protection	LISTED	support for mining communities not consolidated
Finance and insurance	EXISTS	public finance, price floors and loans²²⁰²²
Institutional coordination	EXISTS	G7, IEA and bilateral frameworks¹⁸¹⁹²²
Technical infrastructure	EXISTS	refineries and magnet plants being built; gaps outside China²²¹
Workforce	LISTED	skills and equipment constraints noted²
Research capacity	ADEQUATE	cascade and trade-network models published²³²⁴²⁵
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21MP Materials, MP Materials Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, 26 February 2026 (REO in concentrate 50,692 tonnes; NdPr oxide 2,599 tonnes; first NdFeB magnets on commercial equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025; company-reported figures). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD, OECD Due Diligence Guidance for Responsible Supply Chains of Minerals from Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas, third edition. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2016, cited from memory; the request returned an access error. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, IRMA Standard for Responsible Mining, version 1.0, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA, Critical Minerals Security Programme, described in the Outlook 2025 and 2026 texts; the programme page was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16U.S. Department of the Interior, Interior Department releases final 2025 List of Critical Minerals (7 November 2025; 60 minerals; ten additions). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17Congressional Research Service, U.S. Geological Survey’s Critical Minerals List, In Focus IF13145, 7 January 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28Yuan, X., Song, Q., Liu, Y. et al., Role of anthropogenic mineral circularity in addressing dual challenges of resource supply and waste management in global photovoltaic development, Nature Communications, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29Teixeira, C., Gabbett, C., Synnatschke, K., Coleman, J.N. et al., A self-reliance framework for identifying strategic advanced materials, Nature Communications, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18G7 Leaders, G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan, Kananaskis, 17 June 2025 (read in an archive copy of the text). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23Ouyang, X., Liu, L., Liu, Q. et al., Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain, Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 2026 (trade-linked flows, 1998 to 2019). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24Liu, X., Huang, H., An, F. et al., Resilience assessment of lithium ion battery supply chains under critical mineral shortages, iScience, 2026 (multi-tier network of nine battery manufacturers). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25Han, Y., Wang, P., Liao, Z. et al., Exploring the divergence of rare earth trade networks with a global simulation model, iScience, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026
Chapter 5

Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

3 min read0 figures0 tables3 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline: the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers: the October 2025 Chinese expansion takes effect while the DRC quota holds and stockpiles are thin; post-close, context only: a suspension reported to end on 10 November 2026⁷
Analogues: April 2025 rare earth controls; DRC cobalt quota, 2025⁵⁹
Interventions: none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state: narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1
TRD → MIN
licence requirements extend to foreign-made products that contain Chinese rare earths
2025
2
MIN → INF
magnet exports fall and plants outside China wait for licences
2025
3
MIN → FIN
prices diverge between Chinese and other markets
2026
4
MIN → FIN
cobalt supply stays capped while battery demand grows
2025 · 2026
5
FIN → MIN
buyers draw on stocks and reserves; the net cost of stockpiling is modest against the impact
2026
6
MIN → DAT
chip and device makers face gallium and germanium gaps
2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01 would travel through Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Trade to minerals	Licence requirements extend to foreign-made products that contain Chinese rare earths. Analogue or source: 2025.	Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 1
02 Minerals to infrastructure	Magnet exports fall and plants outside China wait for licences. Analogue or source: 2025.	Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 2
03 Minerals to finance	Prices diverge between Chinese and other markets. Analogue or source: 2026.	Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 3
04 Minerals to finance	Cobalt supply stays capped while battery demand grows. Analogue or source: 2025 · 2026.	Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 4
05 Finance to minerals	Buyers draw on stocks and reserves; the net cost of stockpiling is modest against the impact. Analogue or source: 2026.	Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 5
06 Minerals to dat	Chip and device makers face gallium and germanium gaps. Analogue or source: 2025.	Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01 (2026); Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

7POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026
Chapter 6

Readings from the other desks

The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

15 min read0 figures8 tables41 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading critical minerals as one dependent network. Concentration is rising in refining, controls and quotas have turned concentration into disruption, and diversification is slow because refining and magnet capacity lag mining. Evidence is strongest for production shares and prices and weakest for stocks, secondary supply and end-use flows.

MIN-001 · TRD-003 · MIN-004 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people mineral risk arrives as a late car, a dearer battery or a delayed device. The baseline asks that public debate treat minerals as shared and interdependent, and keep recycling, stockpiles and standards in view, not only mines.

MIN-004 · TRD-003

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. A disruption puts very large downstream output at risk, public finance has grown fast, and refining projects outside the dominant supplier cost more². These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-006 · FIN-007

NEXUS

Synthesis

Mineral risk is well described event by event and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind stock data, test the control and quota compound, and map recovery thresholds before the next large shock.

SYS-012 · M-01 · M-03

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for critical minerals. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability exist?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests show?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What changed in the year, and what renews?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
GCRI Canada	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Reports strategic desks	mineral chapter inputs: GCRI evidence and GRA readiness	strategic editorial board

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Magnets need rare earths, batteries need cobalt and graphite, chips need gallium, and all of them need smelters and refiners. Treating each mineral alone understates how one decision becomes a shock in many industries. This edition reads the network.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Minerals are one network

Mining is concentrated for some minerals, but refining is more so. The top refiner averaged 72% excluding rare earths in 2025, and refining capacity outside it lags mining plans. Earlier data show the same pattern in 2022 and in 2024.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Concentration is a refining problem

The G7 roadmap ties market access to labour, anti-corruption and environmental criteria. Evidence on uranium in cobalt exports and on deforestation around mines shows why oversight gaps matter.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Standards are part of supply security

Recycling is small today. Models show that secondary supply can rise sharply in some technologies, but over decades and with surpluses in only a few metals.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Recycling is a long game

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 critical minerals readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 critical minerals readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	Global risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five global system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	national chapters in preparation	national chapters
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ISSUED
PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Critical Raw Materials Act³⁰	European Union	EU	IN FORCE	benchmarks and strategic projects
Batteries Regulation³¹	European Union	EU	IN FORCE	recycled content and due diligence
Conflict minerals regulation³²	European Union	EU	IN FORCE	tin, tantalum, tungsten, gold
OECD Due Diligence Guidance³³	OECD	global	PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE	responsible supply chains
EITI Standard 2023³⁴	EITI	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	revenue transparency
IRMA Standard³⁵	IRMA	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	responsible mining
Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management³⁶	ICMM, UNEP and PRI	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	tailings
ISO 31000 risk management³⁷	ISO	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	risk process
Roadmap for standards-based markets¹⁹	G7	G7	PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE	minimum criteria
Executive Order 14241¹⁴	United States	US	ISSUED 2025	permitting and finance
Executive Order 14285¹⁵	United States	US	ISSUED 2025	seabed minerals

Changed since 2024

The G7 published a roadmap for standards-based markets on 31 October 2025¹⁹
The EU adopted the RESourceEU action plan on 3 December 2025¹³
The final 2025 US list of critical minerals added copper, silver and eight others, for 60 in total¹⁶

To watch in 2027

Post-close, context only: the decision on the suspended Chinese export controls due on 10 November 2026⁷
Implementation of the EU benchmarks and strategic projects¹¹³⁰
Mining Code negotiations for deep-sea minerals⁴⁴

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers critical minerals assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about the world’s critical minerals and strategic materials and its couplings?
Sources searched: agency statistics; market outlooks; policy texts; peer-reviewed supply-chain literature
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Table 6.5Peer-reviewed science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Ouyang et al.²³	journal article	2026	supports	cobalt cascades
Liu et al.²⁴	journal article	2026	supports	battery chain recovery
Han et al.²⁵	journal article	2025	supports	rare earth trade networks
Manzuk and Philippe²⁶	journal article	2026	supports	uranium in cobalt exports
Morton et al.²⁷	journal article	2026	supports	mining deforestation
Yuan et al.²⁸	journal article	2025	context	secondary supply
Teixeira et al.²⁹	journal article	2026	framework	self-reliance index
Sovacool et al.⁴⁰	journal article	2020	framework	sustainable minerals
Graedel et al.⁴¹	journal article	2015	framework	criticality
Gulley, Nassar and Xun⁴²	journal article	2018	context	competition for resources

Table 6.6Institutional flagships
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Outlook 2026²	IEA	2026	supports	markets and policy
Outlook 2025³	IEA	2025	supports	concentration trend
Critical materials⁴	IRENA	2023	context	mining and refining shares
Panel report³⁸	United Nations	2024	context	principles
Minerals for Climate Action³⁹	World Bank	2020	context	mineral intensity
Critical Materials Assessment⁴³	US Department of Energy	2023	context	criticality assessment

Table 6.7Statistics, lists and policy
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026¹	USGS	2026	supports	production and reliance
Final 2025 List¹⁶	US Department of the Interior	2025	supports	critical minerals list
Critical Minerals List¹⁷	Congressional Research Service	2026	context	list method
Professional Paper 1802⁴⁷	USGS	2017	context	criticality framing
Critical raw materials¹²	European Commission	2023	context	EU list

Table 6.8Standards, directives and operators
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Critical Raw Materials Act¹¹	European Commission	2024	supports	benchmarks
RESourceEU¹³	European Commission	2025	supports	action plan
Critical Minerals Action Plan¹⁸	G7	2025	supports	cooperation
Roadmap¹⁹	G7	2025	supports	standards-based markets
Partnership release²⁰	MP Materials	2025	supports	price floor and equity
Results release²¹	MP Materials	2026	context	company-reported output
US-Australia framework²²	market commentary	2025	context	bilateral financing

Where the evidence agrees

Supply of key minerals is concentrated, most of all in refining²³
Export controls and quotas now move prices and volumes²⁵
Diversification needs refining and magnet capacity, not only mines²

Where it is unsettled

Whether the October 2025 controls were in force at the close⁵. Post-close, context only: a suspension is reported to end on 10 November 2026⁷
How far stockpiles can cover a sustained shock²
How fast recycling and substitution can scale²⁸²⁹

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; the EUR-Lex request returned no text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2017/821 laying down supply chain due diligence obligations for importers of tin, tantalum and tungsten, their ores, and gold from conflict-affected and high-risk areas, Official Journal of the European Union, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD, OECD Due Diligence Guidance for Responsible Supply Chains of Minerals from Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas, third edition. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2016, cited from memory; the request returned an access error. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, The EITI Standard 2023, Oslo, cited from memory; the page returned not found. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, IRMA Standard for Responsible Mining, version 1.0, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ICMM, UNEP and PRI, Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management, August 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 31000:2018, Risk management: guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14The White House, Executive Order 14241, Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production, 20 March 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15The White House, Executive Order 14285, Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources, 24 April 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13European Commission and the EU Circular Economy Stakeholder Platform, European Commission adopts RESourceEU Action Plan (platform post of 10 December 2025; plan adopted 3 December 2025). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16U.S. Department of the Interior, Interior Department releases final 2025 List of Critical Minerals (7 November 2025; 60 minerals; ten additions). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Seabed Authority, Council and Assembly sessions in Kingston, March and July 2026, on the draft exploitation regulations (Mining Code), taken from search-result summaries and a research-institute blog; no official statement was found. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23Ouyang, X., Liu, L., Liu, Q. et al., Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain, Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 2026 (trade-linked flows, 1998 to 2019). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24Liu, X., Huang, H., An, F. et al., Resilience assessment of lithium ion battery supply chains under critical mineral shortages, iScience, 2026 (multi-tier network of nine battery manufacturers). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25Han, Y., Wang, P., Liao, Z. et al., Exploring the divergence of rare earth trade networks with a global simulation model, iScience, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26Manzuk, R.A. and Philippe, S., Uranium in cobalt-hydroxide exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nature Communications, 2026 (mine-level trade records, 2000 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27Morton, O., Bousfield, C.G., Dégny Valé, P. et al., Mining triggers extensive additional deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa, Nature, 2026 (16,627 mines, 2001 to 2020). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28Yuan, X., Song, Q., Liu, Y. et al., Role of anthropogenic mineral circularity in addressing dual challenges of resource supply and waste management in global photovoltaic development, Nature Communications, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29Teixeira, C., Gabbett, C., Synnatschke, K., Coleman, J.N. et al., A self-reliance framework for identifying strategic advanced materials, Nature Communications, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sovacool, B.K. et al., Sustainable minerals and metals for a low-carbon future, Science 367, 30 to 33, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Graedel, T.E. et al., Criticality of metals and metalloids, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112(14), 4257 to 4262, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulley, A.L., Nassar, N.T. and Xun, S., China, the United States, and competition for resources that enable emerging technologies, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(16), 4111 to 4115, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4IRENA (ed.), Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Secretary-General’s Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals, Resourcing the Energy Transition: Principles to Guide Critical Energy Transition Minerals towards Equity and Justice, September 2024, cited from memory; the request returned not found. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hund, K., La Porta, D., Fabregas, T.P., Laing, T. and Drexhage, J., Minerals for Climate Action: The Mineral Intensity of the Clean Energy Transition. World Bank, Washington, 2020, cited from memory; the request returned not found. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: U.S. Department of Energy, Critical Materials Assessment 2023. Washington, July 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17Congressional Research Service, U.S. Geological Survey’s Critical Minerals List, In Focus IF13145, 7 January 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Schulz, K.J., DeYoung, J.H., Seal, R.R. and Bradley, D.C. (eds.), Critical Mineral Resources of the United States: Economic and Environmental Geology and Prospects for Future Supply, USGS Professional Paper 1802, 2017, cited from memory; named in the foreword of the 2026 Mineral Commodity Summaries. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12European Commission, Critical raw materials (web page; 2023 list of 34 critical raw materials with copper and nickel listed as strategic; earlier lists 2011 to 2020). Brussels. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18G7 Leaders, G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan, Kananaskis, 17 June 2025 (read in an archive copy of the text). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21MP Materials, MP Materials Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, 26 February 2026 (REO in concentrate 50,692 tonnes; NdPr oxide 2,599 tonnes; first NdFeB magnets on commercial equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025; company-reported figures). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026
Chapter 7

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 critical minerals agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 critical minerals edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

M-01
How would the October 2025 Chinese control expansion taking effect, overlapping the DRC cobalt quota, travel through magnets, batteries and defence supply at the same time?
INI-SR04-MAG-01 · magnet and battery materials shock; first output: dependency analysis for six regions.
M-02
Which minerals are single points of failure across the most end uses?
INI-SR04-SPF-02 · single points of failure; first output: mineral dependency register.
M-03
How large are stockpiles and reserves, and how fast could they be drawn?
INI-SR04-STK-03 · stockpiles and reserves; first output: stockpile table.
M-04
Where are refining and smelting capacity outside the dominant supplier thinnest?
INI-SR04-REF-04 · refining and smelting capacity; first output: capacity map.
M-05
How do by-product minerals depend on base metal smelters?
INI-SR04-BYP-05 · by-product dependence; first output: by-product flow table.
M-06
Which producers and consumers publish stock and flow data on a comparable basis?
To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.
M-07
How do mining footprints and safeguards change under faster supply growth?
To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.
M-08
Which mineral security capabilities have been tested in real shocks, and which are only planned?
Mineral security capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 minerals portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
ID	Object	Kind	Question	State
INI-SR04-MAG-01	Magnet and battery materials shock	Initiative	M-01	PROPOSED
INI-SR04-SPF-02	Single points of failure	Initiative	M-02	PROPOSED
INI-SR04-STK-03	Stockpiles and reserves	Initiative	M-03	PROPOSED
INI-SR04-REF-04	Refining and smelting capacity	Initiative	M-04	PROPOSED
INI-SR04-BYP-05	By-product dependence	Initiative	M-05	PROPOSED
MSN-SR04-2027-01	Magnet and battery materials Universe mission	Mission	M-01	Candidate

7.3The pathway

The critical minerals edition reads national mineral chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

01
National mineral chapters
mineral reading in each national edition
IN PREPARATION · national baselines
02
Sector editions
energy, infrastructure, digital, finance
PLANNED · sector Baseline Editions
03
Critical minerals system model
the global mineral system of systems
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence
04
Strategic links
SR-03 supply chains · SR-13 strategic technology infrastructure · SR-14 resilience investment
PLANNED · strategic baselines
05
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027
06
Critical Minerals Report
this series
BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition
07
Evidence and correction
one graph, many projections
OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the critical minerals candidate mission

01
Mandate
02
Core Build · 1 month
03
Action · 1 week
04
Evidence seal
05
Portfolio correction
06
Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the critical minerals candidate mission
Item	Record	State	Timing
F1	Annual mandate record	PLANNED	after the Q2 2027 alignment
F2	Core Build record	PLANNED	one month before the exercise
F3	Exercise evidence	PLANNED	during the Action week
F4	Decision packets	PLANNED	exercise state only
F5	Proof receipts	PLANNED	scoped to each recorded check
F6	After-action report	PLANNED	within one quarter
F7	Upgrade docket	PLANNED	routed to the Portfolio
F8	Portfolio renewal	PLANNED	2027 critical minerals annual edition
F9	Public synthesis	PLANNED	public-safe extracts only

Mission

ID: MSN-SR04-2027-01 · Magnet and battery materials Universe mission
Role spine: Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors: to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
Finding	Routed to	Purpose	Class
MIN-001 · refining concentration	INI-SR04-REF-04	refining and smelting capacity	PUBLIC
MIN-002 · rare earth output	INI-SR04-SPF-02	single points of failure	PUBLIC
TRD-003 · export controls	INI-SR04-MAG-01	magnet and battery materials shock	PUBLIC
MIN-004 · cobalt quota	INI-SR04-STK-03	stockpiles and reserves	PUBLIC
MIN-005 · gallium	INI-SR04-BYP-05	by-product dependence	PUBLIC
FIN-006 · value at risk	sector editions · key F review	impact table	PUBLIC
INF-008 · smelters	INI-SR04-BYP-05	by-product dependence	PUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathway	MSN-SR04-2027-01	Universe candidate	CONSORTIUM

Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
Class	Where it goes	Who can see it
PUBLIC	the published edition and its evidence bundle	anyone
CONSORTIUM	governed rooms of the federation	consortium members under agreement
CONTROLLED	need-to-know channels	named competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
Feed	Producer	Latency	Feeds into
Mineral Commodity Summaries	USGS	annual	MIN-002
Global Critical Minerals Outlook	IEA	annual	MIN-001
Export control announcements	Ministry of Commerce and customs	per event	TRD-003
Cobalt quota decisions	ARECOMS	per event	MIN-004
Critical minerals list	USGS and Interior	per update	POL-009
Company production reports	MP Materials	quarterly	MIN-010
Strategic projects and action plans	European Commission	per round	POL-011

Escalation routes

none · keep monitoring
research question
project
risk object
annual publication
signal report

Table 7.6Signals at baseline
ID	Signal	Corroboration	Systems	Route
SIG-SR04-001	Licence controls on heavy rare earths, 2025⁵	CORROBORATED	TRD · MIN	risk object RSK-SR04-TRD-001
SIG-SR04-002	DRC cobalt quota, 2025⁹	CORROBORATED	MIN · FIN	risk object RSK-SR04-MIN-002
SIG-SR04-003	Smelter fee collapse, 2026²	PARTIAL	INF · MIN	research question M-04

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026
Chapter 8

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables9 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

8.1Common causes

One cause can strike many minerals at once: an export control, a producer quota, a conflict or a price slump. The shared cause matters more than the mineral.

Chinese tariff codes under export control, against 2023²

7heavy rare earths

under licence since April 2025⁵

96,600tonnes

DRC cobalt export cap a year¹

Table 8.1Evidence at baseline
Instance	Mechanism in action	Evidence	Status
Export controls	China licenses seven heavy rare earths; the status of the October 2025 expansion is not bound	⁵	Reported
Producer quotas	the DRC caps cobalt exports	¹⁹	Reported
Raw export limits	Zimbabwe for lithium and Mozambique for graphite	²	Reported
Price slump	low cobalt prices led the DRC to ban and then cap exports	¹⁹	Reported

Pathways in this mechanism

TRD → MIN controls
MIN → FIN quotas
ENE → MIN conflict

Evidence to bind in 2027

common cause tagging of supply events
frequency of overlapping controls and quotas

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
SR-13 Strategic Technology Infrastructure and Sovereign Readiness
SR-14 Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios
GS-02 Energy
GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems

8.2Domino effects

A shortage in one mineral removes an input from the next stage. A magnet licence delay reaches vehicle plants; an acid shortage reaches processing and fertiliser.

7heavy rare earths

under licence from 4 April 2025⁵

≈8%

of world aluminium output from the Middle East²

≈25%

of world sulphur supply from the Middle East²

Table 8.2Evidence at baseline
Instance	Mechanism in action	Evidence	Status
Magnets to vehicles	export volumes fell sharply in April and May 2025 and some automakers cut output	²	Reported
Acid to processing	sulphur disruption raised acid costs; China halted acid exports from May 2026	²	Reported
Smelters to by-products	weak fees threaten gallium and germanium recovery	²	Inferred
Minerals to chips	the gallium export ban to the United States was lifted for one year in November 2025	¹	Reported

Pathways in this mechanism

TRD → MIN → FIN
ENE → MIN → FOO
INF → MIN → DAT

Evidence to bind in 2027

timing of output loss in downstream plants
stock cover by plant

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
SR-13 Strategic Technology Infrastructure and Sovereign Readiness
SR-14 Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios
GS-02 Energy
GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems

8.3Inter-systemic feedbacks

Mineral supply responds to what it enables. Demand from batteries and chips lifts prices, prices draw investment, and investment cycles shape the next shortage.

−9%

critical mineral investment, 2025²

>20%

fall in battery metals capital spending, 2025²

≈40%

cut in lithium company investment, 2025²

Table 8.3Evidence at baseline
Instance	Mechanism in action	Evidence	Status
Price to investment	weak prices in 2024 and early 2025 were followed by lower investment in 2025	²³	Reported
Demand to prices	lithium prices more than doubled on storage demand and tight supply	²	Reported
Policy to price	the DRC quota lifted cobalt prices by around 130%	²	Reported
Cascade amplification	cobalt risk concentrates at refining and manufacturing bridges	²³	Reported

Pathways in this mechanism

FIN → MIN
CLI → MIN
MIN → FIN

Evidence to bind in 2027

investment lags by stage
price transmission to end users

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
SR-13 Strategic Technology Infrastructure and Sovereign Readiness
SR-14 Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios
GS-02 Energy
GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems

8.4Shared vulnerabilities

Different minerals share the same weak points: one refining country, by-product recovery at base metal smelters, thin stockpiles and slow magnet capacity.

50%

China share of copper smelting capacity, 2025²

<10%

of gallium in mined ores is recovered²

<900USD million

annual net cost of stockpiling 11 high-risk materials outside the dominant supplier²

Table 8.4Evidence at baseline
Instance	Mechanism in action	Evidence	Status
One refining country	the top refiner averaged 72% excluding rare earths	²	Reported
By-product recovery	gallium, germanium and indium come from base metal processing	²	Reported
Magnet capacity	planned magnet output in diversified regions is about one third of expected mined supply	²	Reported
Stock cover	stockpiles are an emergency buffer; holdings are not consolidated	²	Inferred

Pathways in this mechanism

MIN → INF
INF → MIN
FIN → MIN

Evidence to bind in 2027

stock holdings by country
capacity utilisation outside China

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
SR-13 Strategic Technology Infrastructure and Sovereign Readiness
SR-14 Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios
GS-02 Energy
GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems

8.5Thresholds and tipping

A mineral system can absorb stress until a threshold is crossed. Licence regimes, quotas, refined stocks and recovery capacity are such thresholds.

25%

projected copper supply gap in 2035²

≈70%

of recovery in battery chains from cross-tier reallocation²⁴

4×

avalanche network density against the physical cobalt chain²³

Table 8.5Evidence at baseline
Instance	Mechanism in action	Evidence	Status
Licence thresholds	the October 2025 expansion would extend control to foreign-made products	⁵	Reported
Quota thresholds	the DRC can move unused quota to its reserve and has no allocation framework beyond 2027	²¹⁰	Reported
Cascade thresholds	shocks can produce abrupt nonlinear failures	²³	Reported
Recovery capacity	reallocation across tiers drives most recovery in battery chains	²⁴	Reported

Pathways in this mechanism

TRD → MIN threshold
MIN → MIN cascade thresholds
FIN → MIN recovery finance

Evidence to bind in 2027

cascade thresholds at operating scale
stock thresholds by mineral

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
SR-13 Strategic Technology Infrastructure and Sovereign Readiness
SR-14 Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios
GS-02 Energy
GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23Ouyang, X., Liu, L., Liu, Q. et al., Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain, Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 2026 (trade-linked flows, 1998 to 2019). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24Liu, X., Huang, H., An, F. et al., Resilience assessment of lithium ion battery supply chains under critical mineral shortages, iScience, 2026 (multi-tier network of nine battery manufacturers). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10Shanghai Metals Market (ed.), Congo creates strategic cobalt reserve to influence supply and prices, regulator says (news report of 16 April 2026; reserve run by ARECOMS; 10% of national export volumes, 9,600 tonnes in 2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

11 min read0 figures13 tables8 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	China share of rare earth mine output, 2025	270,000 ÷ 390,000	≈ 69%
(2)	DRC export cap against DRC mine output in 2024	96,600 ÷ 226,000	≈ 43%
(3)	US critical minerals that are fully import reliant	13 ÷ 60	≈ 22%
(4)	DRC and Indonesia combined share of cobalt mine output, 2025	(230,000 + 44,000) ÷ 310,000	≈ 88%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Critical Minerals System Model v0

Model ID: MDL-SR04-MINERALS · v0.1
Purpose: represent critical minerals as a dependent network and the mechanisms by which supply shocks spread between mining, refining, components and end uses
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

0strong

documented within one season

4moderate

documented, buffered

16weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: DC-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: the 2027 critical minerals annual cut

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 global annual
Sources	cited global publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Critical Minerals System Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
US mineral statistics	2025	Feb 2026 · v1.3 May 2026	annual	2027
Market outlook	2025	2026 · revised Jul 2026	annual	2027
Mining and refining shares (older)	2022	Jul 2023	one-off	none found
Chinese export controls	2025 to 2026	Apr 2025 to Nov 2025	per event	status at close not bound
DRC cobalt quota	2025 to 2026	Sep 2025 · Apr 2026	per event	allocation beyond 2027
US critical minerals list	2025	Nov 2025	periodic	not fixed
EU benchmarks	2024	2024	one-off	list update
G7 roadmap	2025	Oct 2025	one-off	G7 follow-up
MP Materials output	2025	Feb 2026	quarterly	next results
Cascade and trade models	1998 to 2019 · 2025	2025 · 2026	ad hoc	none scheduled

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Rare earths	GOOD	magnet stocks
Cobalt	GOOD	quota use
Lithium	PARTIAL	2026 stocks
Graphite	PARTIAL	anode capacity
Gallium and germanium	PARTIAL	by-product flows
Copper	PARTIAL	smelter capacity outside China
Recycling	THIN	secondary supply
Stockpiles	THIN	holdings by country

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Stockpile holdings by country and mineral	national stockpile agencies	not published on a common basis
Full text of the G7 declaration of June 2026	G7 presidency	only the IEA summary was read²
Chinese announcement texts and numbering for the 2025 suspension	Ministry of Commerce notices⁴⁶	official texts not retrieved; sources disagree on the numbering of the joint suspension
ARECOMS decision text and quota allocation by company	ARECOMS⁹	decision not retrieved; sources differ on how the 96,600 tonnes is split
Status of the October 2025 Chinese expansion at the close	Ministry of Commerce	not bound by baseline evidence; one law-firm page carries a teaser on a truce extension to 10 January 2027 that was not verified
Refining and smelting capacity outside China by mineral	IEA project data and company reports	only summary shares were read
Recycled supply by mineral	national statistics and industry	no comparable global series found
Defence and aerospace end-use volumes by mineral	defence ministries and industry	not published
Full text of Regulation (EU) 2024/1252	EUR-Lex³⁰	request returned no text; benchmarks read on the Commission page¹¹
Text of the US and Australia framework of October 2025	governments of the United States and Australia²²	read through a market commentary only
Price series for strategic minor minerals	price reporting agencies	subscription data
Status of the Mining Code for deep-sea minerals	International Seabed Authority⁴⁴	only search summaries of the 2026 sessions
Capability rungs beyond reserves and finance	operators, regulators, ministries	not reviewed

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by the International Energy Agency. Annual. Role: binds MIN-001, TRD-003 and FIN-006. Coverage: global. The revised version of July 2026 was read as extracted text; figure tables were read selectively.

EVD-SR04-001

IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026²

Issued by the US Geological Survey. Annual. Role: binds MIN-002, MIN-004 and MIN-005. Coverage: global production and US trade. Version 1.3 of May 2026; the chapters on cobalt, gallium, graphite, lithium and rare earths were read.

EVD-SR04-002

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026¹

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-SR04-001	EVD-SR04-002
Completeness	estimates for several producers	selected minerals and policy; some figures modelled
Timeliness	first release in early 2026	revised version of July 2026
Revision	versions 1.1 to 1.3 in 2026	revised and corrected in 2026
Method transparency	sources and estimation notes stated	notes stated; projections modelled
External validation	federal science agency	intergovernmental agency

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

USGS¹: heavy rare earth chapter and the table of export controls by country
IEA²: rare earth and nuclear chapters
EU³⁰: full text of the Regulation
Ministry of Commerce⁴⁶: official announcement texts

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
ARECOMS	Regulatory and Control Authority for Strategic Mineral Substances
CRMA	Critical Raw Materials Act
DRC	Democratic Republic of the Congo
EITI	Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative
IEA	International Energy Agency
IRENA	International Renewable Energy Agency
ISA	International Seabed Authority
NdFeB	neodymium-iron-boron
NdPr	neodymium-praseodymium
REO	rare earth oxide
USGS	United States Geological Survey
LMIC	low- and middle-income countries

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the global indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-SR04-MAG-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Regional notes	regional mineral cards	WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: top refiner share

Construct: the share of refined output held by the largest refining country for a mineral
Unit: percent
Method: average across minerals excluding rare earths, as published by the IEA
Source: IEA Outlook 2026²
Uncertainty: depends on mineral coverage and on the refined product definition
Known limits: does not record stocks, capacity utilisation or trade controls

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, export control announcements of 2025 (Announcements 18, 61 and 62 and the joint suspension, numbered 70 in some summaries), taken from secondary summaries; the official texts were not retrieved and sources disagree on the numbering. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; the EUR-Lex request returned no text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Seabed Authority, Council and Assembly sessions in Kingston, March and July 2026, on the draft exploitation regulations (Mining Code), taken from search-result summaries and a research-institute blog; no official statement was found. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

10 min read0 figures8 tables20 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Global baseline indicator set
Indicator	Value	Unit	Year	State	Source
Top refiner share, average excluding rare earths	72	%	2025	Reported	²
Top refiner share, same measure	70	%	2023	Reported	²
World rare earth mine output	390,000	tonnes REO	2025	Reported	¹
China rare earth mine output	270,000	tonnes REO	2025	Reported	¹
China share of primary low-purity gallium	99	%	2025	Reported	¹
World mined cobalt	310,000	tonnes	2025	Reported	¹
DRC share of mined cobalt	73	%	2025	Reported	¹
DRC export cap, cobalt content	96,600	tonnes a year	2026 to 2027	Reported	¹
Cobalt metal price, near peak	≈ 58,000	USD per tonne	Q1 2026	Reported	²
Downstream output at risk, rare earth controls	6.5	USD trillion a year	2026	Estimated	²
Change in critical mineral investment	−9	%	2025	Reported	²
Public finance commitments, advanced economies	≈ 65	USD billion	2025	Reported	²
US critical minerals that are fully import reliant	13 of 60	minerals	2025	Reported	¹
US value of recycled critical minerals	18	USD billion	2025	Reported	¹
NdPr oxide price floor in the US agreement	110	USD per kg	2025	Reported	²⁰

Indicators, CSV Indicators, JSON

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

Table B.3Global source register
Source	Category	Coverage	Period	Cadence	Role
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries¹	national agency	global and US	2025	annual	production and import reliance
IEA Outlook 2026²	intergovernmental agency	global	2025 to 2026	annual	markets and policy
IEA Outlook 2025³	intergovernmental agency	global	2024 to 2025	annual	concentration trend
IRENA critical materials⁴	intergovernmental agency	global	2022	one-off	mining and refining shares
Export-control briefings⁵⁶⁷	legal and advisory notes	China and US	2025 to 2026	per event	control scope and dates
DRC quota reporting⁹¹⁰	trade press	DRC	2025 to 2026	per event	quota volumes
European Commission pages¹¹¹²¹³	EU institution	EU	2023 to 2025	periodic	benchmarks and plans
US executive orders¹⁴¹⁵	government	US	2025	per event	permitting and seabed
G7 texts¹⁸¹⁹	intergovernmental group	G7	2025	per event	roadmap
MP Materials releases²⁰²¹	company	US	2025 to 2026	quarterly	rare earth output

B.3Regional reading, ten regional clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

Table B.4Regional reading, ten regional clusters
Region	Principal hazards	Systems most exposed	Baseline evidence
North America	refining and magnet build-out; import reliance	magnets, batteries, defence	USGS¹; company release²¹
South America	lithium, copper and graphite supply; export policy	batteries, grids	IEA²
Europe	benchmarks, strategic projects, recycling	magnets, batteries	Commission pages¹¹¹³
Eurasia	sanctions and conflict effects not consolidated here	titanium, nickel, palladium	regional statistics (not bound)
Middle East and North Africa	sulphur and aluminium exposure to the 2026 conflict	aluminium, acid	IEA²
Africa	cobalt, copper, graphite and lithium producers; export policy	batteries, grids	USGS¹; IEA²
South Asia	national mission and processing build-out	batteries, magnets	national mission⁴⁵
East Asia	refining, magnet and cell manufacturing hubs	magnets, batteries, chips	IEA²
ASEAN	nickel and cobalt by-product growth in Indonesia	batteries, steel	USGS¹; IEA²
Oceania-Pacific	lithium, rare earth and gallium projects; a strategic reserve	magnets, chips	framework commentary²²

B.4Regional card: Democratic Republic of the Congo cobalt

region
cobalt
export quota
strategic reserve

Systems in view: batteries, superalloys, chemicals
Defining events: export ban in February 2025 and quotas from October 2025²⁹
Couplings: MIN → FIN; MIN → TRD
Capability evidence: a quota system and a strategic reserve set up in April 2026¹⁰
Gaps: quota use by company; stock levels
Agenda items: M-01 · M-03

Exports of contained cobalt are capped at up to 96,600 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 tonnes for strategic reserves [1].

QUOTA

Annual cap

The regulator set up a strategic reserve in April 2026 and can buy, hold and sell [10].

RESERVE

State reserve

Indonesia produced an estimated 44,000 tonnes in 2025, about 14% of world mine output [1].

SUPPLY

Alternative supply

B.5How countries appear in the global edition

Countries enter the critical minerals edition through the mineral chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

Table B.5How countries appear in the global edition
Card field	What it shows	Source
WEFH+B state	each core system against peer distribution bands	national edition
Couplings	the national dependency matrix	national edition
Risk objects	the national risk portfolio	national edition
Capability rungs	the national capability ladder	national edition
Evidence age	oldest and newest source dates	national source register

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

26national

countries and unions

10regional

clusters

16global

flagship and sector

14strategic

systems reports

20frontier

technology reports

How to read a country card

Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

Table B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
Wave	Countries and unions	State
W0	Canada	ISSUED
W1	United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland	PLANNED
W2	Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia	PLANNED

B.6Licences

Table B.7Licences of each kind of material
Material	Licence
Text	CC BY 4.0
Data	on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
Figures	Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Maps	boundary source and licence printed on each plate
Metadata	CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and text	The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.8This edition in every format
Format	Kind	State	What it is	Identifier
Web edition	HTML	On this site	Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.	NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print edition	PDF	At release	A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.	NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator data	CSV · JSON	On this site	15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.	NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1
Figures	SVG · PNG	On this site	4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.	FIG-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*
Slides	PDF	Not recorded	No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence brief	HTML · PDF	Not recorded	No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOI	DataCite	At release	Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack: The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut: DC-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility: sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check: 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review: five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record: GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections: Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4IRENA (ed.), Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6China Briefing (ed.), How Will China’s Rare Earth Export Controls Impact Industries and Businesses? (April 2025 controls on seven rare earths; October 2025 additions and extraterritorial rules; 45-day licence period). Dezan Shira and Associates. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10Shanghai Metals Market (ed.), Congo creates strategic cobalt reserve to influence supply and prices, regulator says (news report of 16 April 2026; reserve run by ARECOMS; 10% of national export volumes, 9,600 tonnes in 2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12European Commission, Critical raw materials (web page; 2023 list of 34 critical raw materials with copper and nickel listed as strategic; earlier lists 2011 to 2020). Brussels. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13European Commission and the EU Circular Economy Stakeholder Platform, European Commission adopts RESourceEU Action Plan (platform post of 10 December 2025; plan adopted 3 December 2025). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14The White House, Executive Order 14241, Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production, 20 March 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15The White House, Executive Order 14285, Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources, 24 April 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18G7 Leaders, G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan, Kananaskis, 17 June 2025 (read in an archive copy of the text). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21MP Materials, MP Materials Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, 26 February 2026 (REO in concentrate 50,692 tonnes; NdPr oxide 2,599 tonnes; first NdFeB magnets on commercial equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025; company-reported figures). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of India, National Critical Mineral Mission, cleared by the Union Cabinet on 29 January 2025 (outlay of INR 16,300 crore over seven years), taken from search-result summaries; the press release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
4IRENA (ed.), Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
6China Briefing (ed.), How Will China’s Rare Earth Export Controls Impact Industries and Businesses? (April 2025 controls on seven rare earths; October 2025 additions and extraterritorial rules; 45-day licence period). Dezan Shira and Associates. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
7POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
8POST-CLOSE, context only: Gonzalez, A., China rare earth export pause nears expiry amid persistent supply concentration, Mining Technology, 27 April 2026 (expiry on 10 November 2026; April 2025 controls remain; 2025 output shares). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
10Shanghai Metals Market (ed.), Congo creates strategic cobalt reserve to influence supply and prices, regulator says (news report of 16 April 2026; reserve run by ARECOMS; 10% of national export volumes, 9,600 tonnes in 2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 8
11European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
12European Commission, Critical raw materials (web page; 2023 list of 34 critical raw materials with copper and nickel listed as strategic; earlier lists 2011 to 2020). Brussels. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
13European Commission and the EU Circular Economy Stakeholder Platform, European Commission adopts RESourceEU Action Plan (platform post of 10 December 2025; plan adopted 3 December 2025). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
14The White House, Executive Order 14241, Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production, 20 March 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
15The White House, Executive Order 14285, Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources, 24 April 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
16U.S. Department of the Interior, Interior Department releases final 2025 List of Critical Minerals (7 November 2025; 60 minerals; ten additions). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
17Congressional Research Service, U.S. Geological Survey’s Critical Minerals List, In Focus IF13145, 7 January 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
18G7 Leaders, G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan, Kananaskis, 17 June 2025 (read in an archive copy of the text). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
19G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
20MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
21MP Materials, MP Materials Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, 26 February 2026 (REO in concentrate 50,692 tonnes; NdPr oxide 2,599 tonnes; first NdFeB magnets on commercial equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025; company-reported figures). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
22CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6
23Ouyang, X., Liu, L., Liu, Q. et al., Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain, Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 2026 (trade-linked flows, 1998 to 2019). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
24Liu, X., Huang, H., An, F. et al., Resilience assessment of lithium ion battery supply chains under critical mineral shortages, iScience, 2026 (multi-tier network of nine battery manufacturers). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
25Han, Y., Wang, P., Liao, Z. et al., Exploring the divergence of rare earth trade networks with a global simulation model, iScience, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
26Manzuk, R.A. and Philippe, S., Uranium in cobalt-hydroxide exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nature Communications, 2026 (mine-level trade records, 2000 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27Morton, O., Bousfield, C.G., Dégny Valé, P. et al., Mining triggers extensive additional deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa, Nature, 2026 (16,627 mines, 2001 to 2020). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6
28Yuan, X., Song, Q., Liu, Y. et al., Role of anthropogenic mineral circularity in addressing dual challenges of resource supply and waste management in global photovoltaic development, Nature Communications, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
29Teixeira, C., Gabbett, C., Synnatschke, K., Coleman, J.N. et al., A self-reliance framework for identifying strategic advanced materials, Nature Communications, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; the EUR-Lex request returned no text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2017/821 laying down supply chain due diligence obligations for importers of tin, tantalum and tungsten, their ores, and gold from conflict-affected and high-risk areas, Official Journal of the European Union, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD, OECD Due Diligence Guidance for Responsible Supply Chains of Minerals from Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas, third edition. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2016, cited from memory; the request returned an access error. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, The EITI Standard 2023, Oslo, cited from memory; the page returned not found. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, IRMA Standard for Responsible Mining, version 1.0, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ICMM, UNEP and PRI, Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management, August 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 31000:2018, Risk management: guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Secretary-General’s Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals, Resourcing the Energy Transition: Principles to Guide Critical Energy Transition Minerals towards Equity and Justice, September 2024, cited from memory; the request returned not found. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hund, K., La Porta, D., Fabregas, T.P., Laing, T. and Drexhage, J., Minerals for Climate Action: The Mineral Intensity of the Clean Energy Transition. World Bank, Washington, 2020, cited from memory; the request returned not found. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sovacool, B.K. et al., Sustainable minerals and metals for a low-carbon future, Science 367, 30 to 33, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Graedel, T.E. et al., Criticality of metals and metalloids, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112(14), 4257 to 4262, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulley, A.L., Nassar, N.T. and Xun, S., China, the United States, and competition for resources that enable emerging technologies, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(16), 4111 to 4115, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: U.S. Department of Energy, Critical Materials Assessment 2023. Washington, July 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Seabed Authority, Council and Assembly sessions in Kingston, March and July 2026, on the draft exploitation regulations (Mining Code), taken from search-result summaries and a research-institute blog; no official statement was found. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of India, National Critical Mineral Mission, cleared by the Union Cabinet on 29 January 2025 (outlay of INR 16,300 crore over seven years), taken from search-result summaries; the press release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, export control announcements of 2025 (Announcements 18, 61 and 62 and the joint suspension, numbered 70 in some summaries), taken from secondary summaries; the official texts were not retrieved and sources disagree on the numbering. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Schulz, K.J., DeYoung, J.H., Seal, R.R. and Bradley, D.C. (eds.), Critical Mineral Resources of the United States: Economic and Environmental Geology and Prospects for Future Supply, USGS Professional Paper 1802, 2017, cited from memory; named in the foreword of the 2026 Mineral Commodity Summaries. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
48UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA, Critical Minerals Security Programme, described in the Outlook 2025 and 2026 texts; the programme page was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: Strategic Systems Report 2026: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials, Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Strategic Systems Series SR-04
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the 2027 critical minerals edition reports changes against this baseline	2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
SR-04	NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias: NR-STR-SR-04-2026-BL
Collection: None
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle: RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID: Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR: Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account: None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
SR-04 edition Reports Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-04 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

S.3Headline finding

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

What it is not

What comes next

Notes

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

In this part

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

Transmission paths

Notes

2.1Headline finding

Implication

What would move it

2.2Minerals

2.3Trade

2.4Finance

2.5Infrastructure

2.6POL

2.7Systemic

Notes

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

Top refiner average share, excluding rare earths

Chinese tariff codes under export control, against 2023

DRC export cap a year, 2026 and 2027

Downstream output outside China at risk, rare earths

World mine output

Public finance commitments, advanced economies

3.2Domain posture

3.3Sector screens

Notes

4.1Risk objects

Export controls on rare earths and magnets take effect

Cobalt quota squeeze

Smelter stress and loss of by-product recovery

Slow diversification against concentrated refining

4.2Capability ladder

Notes

5.1Assumptions

5.2The cascade, step by step

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

Notes

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

6.2Three lenses

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

Standards drafts used in this edition

Standards calendar to watch

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 critical minerals readiness pack

Publication dispositions

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Changed since 2024

To watch in 2027

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

Review protocol

Where the evidence agrees

Where it is unsettled

Notes

7.1Questions for the operational series

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

7.3The pathway