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Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

3 min read0 figures0 tables3 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Small volumes, large dependence
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
the October 2025 Chinese expansion takes effect while the DRC quota holds and stockpiles are thin; post-close, context only: a suspension reported to end on 10 November 20267
Analogues
April 2025 rare earth controls; DRC cobalt quota, 202559
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    TRD → MIN

    licence requirements extend to foreign-made products that contain Chinese rare earths

    2025

  2. 2

    MIN → INF

    magnet exports fall and plants outside China wait for licences

    2025

  3. 3

    MIN → FIN

    prices diverge between Chinese and other markets

    2026

  4. 4

    MIN → FIN

    cobalt supply stays capped while battery demand grows

    2025 · 2026

  5. 5

    FIN → MIN

    buyers draw on stocks and reserves; the net cost of stockpiling is modest against the impact

    2026

  6. 6

    MIN → DAT

    chip and device makers face gallium and germanium gaps

    2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01 would travel through Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Trade to mineralsLicence requirements extend to foreign-made products that contain Chinese rare earths. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 1
02 Minerals to infrastructureMagnet exports fall and plants outside China wait for licences. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 2
03 Minerals to financePrices diverge between Chinese and other markets. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 3
04 Minerals to financeCobalt supply stays capped while battery demand grows. Analogue or source: 2025 · 2026.Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 4
05 Finance to mineralsBuyers draw on stocks and reserves; the net cost of stockpiling is modest against the impact. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 5
06 Minerals to datChip and device makers face gallium and germanium gaps. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01 (2026); Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 7POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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