Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

6 min read0 figures1 table20 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Small volumes, large dependence
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-SR04-TRD-001

    Export controls on rare earths and magnets take effect

    Driver
    the status of the October 2025 expansion at the close is not bound5; post-close, context only: a suspension reported to end on 10 November 20267
    Exposure
    vehicle, electronics, defence and data-centre makers outside China2
    Vulnerability
    refining and magnet capacity lag mining outside the dominant supplier2
    Capacity
    licences; stockpiles; new magnet production in Texas21
    Cascade
    TRD → MIN → FIN
    Horizon
    1 year

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-SR04-MIN-002

    Cobalt quota squeeze

    Driver
    a DRC export cap of up to 96,600 tonnes a year19
    Exposure
    battery and superalloy makers
    Vulnerability
    no allocation framework beyond 20272
    Capacity
    Indonesian by-product supply of about 14% of world output1; recycling
    Cascade
    MIN → FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 3 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR04-INF-003

    Smelter stress and loss of by-product recovery

    Driver
    smelter fees at USD 0 a tonne and negative spot charges2
    Exposure
    gallium, germanium, indium and antimony
    Vulnerability
    utilisation below 70% outside China in 20252
    Capacity
    targeted support for recovery and refining2
    Cascade
    INF → MIN → DAT
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR04-POL-004

    Slow diversification against concentrated refining

    Driver
    higher costs outside the dominant supplier2
    Exposure
    importing economies
    Vulnerability
    refining and magnet projects lag mining2
    Capacity
    price floors, stockpiles and public finance220
    Cascade
    FIN → MIN
    Horizon
    5 to 10 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSdue diligence and responsible-mining standards widespread; uptake uneven3335
Monitoring and observationADEQUATEagency statistics and outlooks published every year12
Early warningLISTEDno common cross-mineral warning; an IEA programme exists48
Preparedness and planningEXISTSnational critical mineral lists and an IEA programme161748
Redundancy and reservesEXISTSUS, Australian and DRC reserves announced; use not yet tested2
ResponseLISTEDan oil stock release in March 2026 is the analogue; no mineral release found2
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDofftake and price-floor arrangements; not consolidated20
RecoveryLISTEDrestart time after a shock not consolidated
AdaptationEXISTSsubstitution and circularity studies published2829
Social protectionLISTEDsupport for mining communities not consolidated
Finance and insuranceEXISTSpublic finance, price floors and loans22022
Institutional coordinationEXISTSG7, IEA and bilateral frameworks181922
Technical infrastructureEXISTSrefineries and magnet plants being built; gaps outside China221
WorkforceLISTEDskills and equipment constraints noted2
Research capacityADEQUATEcascade and trade-network models published232425
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 7POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 21MP Materials, MP Materials Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, 26 February 2026 (REO in concentrate 50,692 tonnes; NdPr oxide 2,599 tonnes; first NdFeB magnets on commercial equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025; company-reported figures). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 20MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD, OECD Due Diligence Guidance for Responsible Supply Chains of Minerals from Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas, third edition. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2016, cited from memory; the request returned an access error. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, IRMA Standard for Responsible Mining, version 1.0, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA, Critical Minerals Security Programme, described in the Outlook 2025 and 2026 texts; the programme page was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 16U.S. Department of the Interior, Interior Department releases final 2025 List of Critical Minerals (7 November 2025; 60 minerals; ten additions). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 17Congressional Research Service, U.S. Geological Survey’s Critical Minerals List, In Focus IF13145, 7 January 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 28Yuan, X., Song, Q., Liu, Y. et al., Role of anthropogenic mineral circularity in addressing dual challenges of resource supply and waste management in global photovoltaic development, Nature Communications, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 29Teixeira, C., Gabbett, C., Synnatschke, K., Coleman, J.N. et al., A self-reliance framework for identifying strategic advanced materials, Nature Communications, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 22CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 18G7 Leaders, G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan, Kananaskis, 17 June 2025 (read in an archive copy of the text). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 19G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 23Ouyang, X., Liu, L., Liu, Q. et al., Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain, Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 2026 (trade-linked flows, 1998 to 2019). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 24Liu, X., Huang, H., An, F. et al., Resilience assessment of lithium ion battery supply chains under critical mineral shortages, iScience, 2026 (multi-tier network of nine battery manufacturers). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 25Han, Y., Wang, P., Liao, Z. et al., Exploring the divergence of rare earth trade networks with a global simulation model, iScience, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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