Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the critical minerals baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables10 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Small volumes, large dependence
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Minerals
    3. 2.3 Trade
    4. 2.4 Finance
    5. 2.5 Infrastructure
    6. 2.6 POL
    7. 2.7 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-004

The DRC replaced a February 2025 cobalt export ban with quotas of up to 96,600 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 tonnes for strategic reserves, and cobalt metal approached USD 58,000 a tonne in the first quarter of 2026.

Figure 2.1Cobalt: mine output and the export cap, tonnes
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
DRC mine output, 2025 (estimate)230,000
DRC export cap a year, 2026 and 202796,600
of which strategic reserves9,600

Source: USGS1. Output and exports are different measures; the cap covers exports of contained cobalt.

Implication

A producer that holds about two thirds of mined supply can move the market by decision. The quota also reserves 9,600 tonnes for state use and lets the regulator move unused quota to that reserve, which adds discretion for buyers210. Refined stocks stayed high, so prices of intermediates and refined metal diverged2.

What would move it

The allocation framework beyond 2027, use of the strategic reserve and Indonesian cobalt output would each move this finding.

2.2Minerals

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-001

    Excluding rare earths, the average share of the top refining country rose to 72% in 2025, up from 70% in 2023, according to the IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026.2

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-002

    World rare earth mine output was an estimated 390,000 tonnes in 2025, of which China produced 270,000 tonnes; the United States relies on imports for more than two thirds of the rare earth compounds and metals it consumes.1

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-004

    The DRC replaced a February 2025 cobalt export ban with quotas of up to 96,600 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 tonnes for strategic reserves, and cobalt metal approached USD 58,000 a tonne in the first quarter of 2026.129

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-005

    China accounted for 99% of world primary low-purity gallium production in 2025, and European gallium prices were about five times Chinese domestic prices in 2026.12

  5. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-010

    A July 2025 agreement between the US Department of Defense and MP Materials includes USD 400 million of preferred equity and a ten-year price floor of USD 110 a kilogram for NdPr oxide, and MP produced 2,599 tonnes of NdPr oxide in 2025, up 101%.2021

2.3Trade

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-003

    China placed licence controls on seven heavy rare earths in April 2025 and announced an October 2025 expansion, and the number of Chinese tariff codes under export control has tripled since 2023. The status of the expansion at the close is not bound.25

2.4Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

    The IEA estimates that fully implemented rare earth export controls would put USD 6.5 trillion a year of downstream production outside China at risk, and a full disruption of battery-grade graphite trade over USD 300 billion a year.2

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007

    Critical mineral investment fell 9% in 2025, and public finance commitments in advanced economies reached about USD 65 billion, over four times the 2023 level, with a gap between commitments and disbursements.2

2.5Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-008

    The benchmark copper smelter fee was settled at USD 0 a tonne in 2026, China’s share of global copper smelting capacity rose from about 15% in 2005 to 50% in 2025, and many strategic minor minerals are recovered as by-products of base metal smelting.2

2.6POL

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-POL-009

    In June 2026 G7 leaders set a target to reduce dependency on a single non-G7 supplier of rare earths and permanent magnets to below 60% by 2030, and the G7 roadmap of October 2025 sets minimum criteria for standards-based markets.219

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-POL-011

    The EU Critical Raw Materials Act sets 2030 benchmarks of 10% of consumption from extraction, 40% from processing, 25% from recycling and no more than 65% from one third country, and the Commission adopted the RESourceEU action plan on 3 December 2025.1113

2.7Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is the October 2025 Chinese control expansion taking effect in a way that overlaps the DRC cobalt quota and thin stockpiles. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 10Shanghai Metals Market (ed.), Congo creates strategic cobalt reserve to influence supply and prices, regulator says (news report of 16 April 2026; reserve run by ARECOMS; 10% of national export volumes, 9,600 tonnes in 2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 20MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 21MP Materials, MP Materials Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, 26 February 2026 (REO in concentrate 50,692 tonnes; NdPr oxide 2,599 tonnes; first NdFeB magnets on commercial equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025; company-reported figures). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 19G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 11European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 13European Commission and the EU Circular Economy Stakeholder Platform, European Commission adopts RESourceEU Action Plan (platform post of 10 December 2025; plan adopted 3 December 2025). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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