Readings from the other desks
The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Small volumes, large dependence
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 critical minerals readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading critical minerals as one dependent network. Concentration is rising in refining, controls and quotas have turned concentration into disruption, and diversification is slow because refining and magnet capacity lag mining. Evidence is strongest for production shares and prices and weakest for stocks, secondary supply and end-use flows.
MIN-001 · TRD-003 · MIN-004 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people mineral risk arrives as a late car, a dearer battery or a delayed device. The baseline asks that public debate treat minerals as shared and interdependent, and keep recycling, stockpiles and standards in view, not only mines.
MIN-004 · TRD-003
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. A disruption puts very large downstream output at risk, public finance has grown fast, and refining projects outside the dominant supplier cost more2. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-006 · FIN-007
NEXUS
Synthesis
Mineral risk is well described event by event and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind stock data, test the control and quota compound, and map recovery thresholds before the next large shock.
SYS-012 · M-01 · M-03
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for critical minerals. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Reports strategic desks | mineral chapter inputs: GCRI evidence and GRA readiness | strategic editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Magnets need rare earths, batteries need cobalt and graphite, chips need gallium, and all of them need smelters and refiners. Treating each mineral alone understates how one decision becomes a shock in many industries. This edition reads the network.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Minerals are one network
Mining is concentrated for some minerals, but refining is more so. The top refiner averaged 72% excluding rare earths in 2025, and refining capacity outside it lags mining plans. Earlier data show the same pattern in 2022 and in 2024.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Concentration is a refining problem
The G7 roadmap ties market access to labour, anti-corruption and environmental criteria. Evidence on uranium in cobalt exports and on deforestation around mines shows why oversight gaps matter.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Standards are part of supply security
Recycling is small today. Models show that secondary supply can rise sharply in some technologies, but over decades and with surpluses in only a few metals.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Recycling is a long game
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 critical minerals readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Global risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ISSUED
- PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Raw Materials Act30 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | benchmarks and strategic projects |
| Batteries Regulation31 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | recycled content and due diligence |
| Conflict minerals regulation32 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | tin, tantalum, tungsten, gold |
| OECD Due Diligence Guidance33 | OECD | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | responsible supply chains |
| EITI Standard 202334 | EITI | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | revenue transparency |
| IRMA Standard35 | IRMA | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | responsible mining |
| Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management36 | ICMM, UNEP and PRI | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | tailings |
| ISO 31000 risk management37 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | risk process |
| Roadmap for standards-based markets19 | G7 | G7 | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | minimum criteria |
| Executive Order 1424114 | United States | US | ISSUED 2025 | permitting and finance |
| Executive Order 1428515 | United States | US | ISSUED 2025 | seabed minerals |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers critical minerals assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about the world’s critical minerals and strategic materials and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- agency statistics; market outlooks; policy texts; peer-reviewed supply-chain literature
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ouyang et al.23 | journal article | 2026 | supports | cobalt cascades |
| Liu et al.24 | journal article | 2026 | supports | battery chain recovery |
| Han et al.25 | journal article | 2025 | supports | rare earth trade networks |
| Manzuk and Philippe26 | journal article | 2026 | supports | uranium in cobalt exports |
| Morton et al.27 | journal article | 2026 | supports | mining deforestation |
| Yuan et al.28 | journal article | 2025 | context | secondary supply |
| Teixeira et al.29 | journal article | 2026 | framework | self-reliance index |
| Sovacool et al.40 | journal article | 2020 | framework | sustainable minerals |
| Graedel et al.41 | journal article | 2015 | framework | criticality |
| Gulley, Nassar and Xun42 | journal article | 2018 | context | competition for resources |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outlook 20262 | IEA | 2026 | supports | markets and policy |
| Outlook 20253 | IEA | 2025 | supports | concentration trend |
| Critical materials4 | IRENA | 2023 | context | mining and refining shares |
| Panel report38 | United Nations | 2024 | context | principles |
| Minerals for Climate Action39 | World Bank | 2020 | context | mineral intensity |
| Critical Materials Assessment43 | US Department of Energy | 2023 | context | criticality assessment |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mineral Commodity Summaries 20261 | USGS | 2026 | supports | production and reliance |
| Final 2025 List16 | US Department of the Interior | 2025 | supports | critical minerals list |
| Critical Minerals List17 | Congressional Research Service | 2026 | context | list method |
| Professional Paper 180247 | USGS | 2017 | context | criticality framing |
| Critical raw materials12 | European Commission | 2023 | context | EU list |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Raw Materials Act11 | European Commission | 2024 | supports | benchmarks |
| RESourceEU13 | European Commission | 2025 | supports | action plan |
| Critical Minerals Action Plan18 | G7 | 2025 | supports | cooperation |
| Roadmap19 | G7 | 2025 | supports | standards-based markets |
| Partnership release20 | MP Materials | 2025 | supports | price floor and equity |
| Results release21 | MP Materials | 2026 | context | company-reported output |
| US-Australia framework22 | market commentary | 2025 | context | bilateral financing |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; the EUR-Lex request returned no text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2017/821 laying down supply chain due diligence obligations for importers of tin, tantalum and tungsten, their ores, and gold from conflict-affected and high-risk areas, Official Journal of the European Union, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD, OECD Due Diligence Guidance for Responsible Supply Chains of Minerals from Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas, third edition. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2016, cited from memory; the request returned an access error. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, The EITI Standard 2023, Oslo, cited from memory; the page returned not found. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, IRMA Standard for Responsible Mining, version 1.0, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ICMM, UNEP and PRI, Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management, August 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 31000:2018, Risk management: guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14The White House, Executive Order 14241, Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production, 20 March 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15The White House, Executive Order 14285, Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources, 24 April 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13European Commission and the EU Circular Economy Stakeholder Platform, European Commission adopts RESourceEU Action Plan (platform post of 10 December 2025; plan adopted 3 December 2025). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16U.S. Department of the Interior, Interior Department releases final 2025 List of Critical Minerals (7 November 2025; 60 minerals; ten additions). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Seabed Authority, Council and Assembly sessions in Kingston, March and July 2026, on the draft exploitation regulations (Mining Code), taken from search-result summaries and a research-institute blog; no official statement was found. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23Ouyang, X., Liu, L., Liu, Q. et al., Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain, Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 2026 (trade-linked flows, 1998 to 2019). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Liu, X., Huang, H., An, F. et al., Resilience assessment of lithium ion battery supply chains under critical mineral shortages, iScience, 2026 (multi-tier network of nine battery manufacturers). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25Han, Y., Wang, P., Liao, Z. et al., Exploring the divergence of rare earth trade networks with a global simulation model, iScience, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26Manzuk, R.A. and Philippe, S., Uranium in cobalt-hydroxide exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nature Communications, 2026 (mine-level trade records, 2000 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27Morton, O., Bousfield, C.G., Dégny Valé, P. et al., Mining triggers extensive additional deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa, Nature, 2026 (16,627 mines, 2001 to 2020). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28Yuan, X., Song, Q., Liu, Y. et al., Role of anthropogenic mineral circularity in addressing dual challenges of resource supply and waste management in global photovoltaic development, Nature Communications, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29Teixeira, C., Gabbett, C., Synnatschke, K., Coleman, J.N. et al., A self-reliance framework for identifying strategic advanced materials, Nature Communications, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sovacool, B.K. et al., Sustainable minerals and metals for a low-carbon future, Science 367, 30 to 33, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Graedel, T.E. et al., Criticality of metals and metalloids, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112(14), 4257 to 4262, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulley, A.L., Nassar, N.T. and Xun, S., China, the United States, and competition for resources that enable emerging technologies, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(16), 4111 to 4115, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4IRENA (ed.), Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Secretary-General’s Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals, Resourcing the Energy Transition: Principles to Guide Critical Energy Transition Minerals towards Equity and Justice, September 2024, cited from memory; the request returned not found. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hund, K., La Porta, D., Fabregas, T.P., Laing, T. and Drexhage, J., Minerals for Climate Action: The Mineral Intensity of the Clean Energy Transition. World Bank, Washington, 2020, cited from memory; the request returned not found. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: U.S. Department of Energy, Critical Materials Assessment 2023. Washington, July 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17Congressional Research Service, U.S. Geological Survey’s Critical Minerals List, In Focus IF13145, 7 January 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Schulz, K.J., DeYoung, J.H., Seal, R.R. and Bradley, D.C. (eds.), Critical Mineral Resources of the United States: Economic and Environmental Geology and Prospects for Future Supply, USGS Professional Paper 1802, 2017, cited from memory; named in the foreword of the 2026 Mineral Commodity Summaries. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12European Commission, Critical raw materials (web page; 2023 list of 34 critical raw materials with copper and nickel listed as strategic; earlier lists 2011 to 2020). Brussels. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18G7 Leaders, G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan, Kananaskis, 17 June 2025 (read in an archive copy of the text). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21MP Materials, MP Materials Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, 26 February 2026 (REO in concentrate 50,692 tonnes; NdPr oxide 2,599 tonnes; first NdFeB magnets on commercial equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025; company-reported figures). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back