Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Small volumes, large dependence
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- A.1 Methods
- A.2 Model card, Critical Minerals System Model v0
- A.3 The baseline evidence cut
- A.4 Evidence age and coverage
- A.5 Evidence cards, two anchor sources
- A.6 Publication acceptance record
- A.7 Status words
- A.8 How the edition is made, released and corrected
- A.9 Glossary and abbreviations
- A.10 Technical annex
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | China share of rare earth mine output, 2025 | 270,000 ÷ 390,000 | ≈ 69% |
| (2) | DRC export cap against DRC mine output in 2024 | 96,600 ÷ 226,000 | ≈ 43% |
| (3) | US critical minerals that are fully import reliant | 13 ÷ 60 | ≈ 22% |
| (4) | DRC and Indonesia combined share of cobalt mine output, 2025 | (230,000 + 44,000) ÷ 310,000 | ≈ 88% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Critical Minerals System Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-SR04-MINERALS · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent critical minerals as a dependent network and the mechanisms by which supply shocks spread between mining, refining, components and end uses
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
0strong
documented within one season
4moderate
documented, buffered
16weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 critical minerals annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Critical Minerals System Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US mineral statistics | 2025 | Feb 2026 · v1.3 May 2026 | annual | 2027 |
| Market outlook | 2025 | 2026 · revised Jul 2026 | annual | 2027 |
| Mining and refining shares (older) | 2022 | Jul 2023 | one-off | none found |
| Chinese export controls | 2025 to 2026 | Apr 2025 to Nov 2025 | per event | status at close not bound |
| DRC cobalt quota | 2025 to 2026 | Sep 2025 · Apr 2026 | per event | allocation beyond 2027 |
| US critical minerals list | 2025 | Nov 2025 | periodic | not fixed |
| EU benchmarks | 2024 | 2024 | one-off | list update |
| G7 roadmap | 2025 | Oct 2025 | one-off | G7 follow-up |
| MP Materials output | 2025 | Feb 2026 | quarterly | next results |
| Cascade and trade models | 1998 to 2019 · 2025 | 2025 · 2026 | ad hoc | none scheduled |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Rare earths | GOOD | magnet stocks |
| Cobalt | GOOD | quota use |
| Lithium | PARTIAL | 2026 stocks |
| Graphite | PARTIAL | anode capacity |
| Gallium and germanium | PARTIAL | by-product flows |
| Copper | PARTIAL | smelter capacity outside China |
| Recycling | THIN | secondary supply |
| Stockpiles | THIN | holdings by country |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Stockpile holdings by country and mineral | national stockpile agencies | not published on a common basis |
| Full text of the G7 declaration of June 2026 | G7 presidency | only the IEA summary was read2 |
| Chinese announcement texts and numbering for the 2025 suspension | Ministry of Commerce notices46 | official texts not retrieved; sources disagree on the numbering of the joint suspension |
| ARECOMS decision text and quota allocation by company | ARECOMS9 | decision not retrieved; sources differ on how the 96,600 tonnes is split |
| Status of the October 2025 Chinese expansion at the close | Ministry of Commerce | not bound by baseline evidence; one law-firm page carries a teaser on a truce extension to 10 January 2027 that was not verified |
| Refining and smelting capacity outside China by mineral | IEA project data and company reports | only summary shares were read |
| Recycled supply by mineral | national statistics and industry | no comparable global series found |
| Defence and aerospace end-use volumes by mineral | defence ministries and industry | not published |
| Full text of Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 | EUR-Lex30 | request returned no text; benchmarks read on the Commission page11 |
| Text of the US and Australia framework of October 2025 | governments of the United States and Australia22 | read through a market commentary only |
| Price series for strategic minor minerals | price reporting agencies | subscription data |
| Status of the Mining Code for deep-sea minerals | International Seabed Authority44 | only search summaries of the 2026 sessions |
| Capability rungs beyond reserves and finance | operators, regulators, ministries | not reviewed |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the International Energy Agency. Annual. Role: binds MIN-001, TRD-003 and FIN-006. Coverage: global. The revised version of July 2026 was read as extracted text; figure tables were read selectively.
EVD-SR04-001
IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 20262
Issued by the US Geological Survey. Annual. Role: binds MIN-002, MIN-004 and MIN-005. Coverage: global production and US trade. Version 1.3 of May 2026; the chapters on cobalt, gallium, graphite, lithium and rare earths were read.
EVD-SR04-002
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 20261
| Dimension | EVD-SR04-001 | EVD-SR04-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | estimates for several producers | selected minerals and policy; some figures modelled |
| Timeliness | first release in early 2026 | revised version of July 2026 |
| Revision | versions 1.1 to 1.3 in 2026 | revised and corrected in 2026 |
| Method transparency | sources and estimation notes stated | notes stated; projections modelled |
| External validation | federal science agency | intergovernmental agency |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| ARECOMS | Regulatory and Control Authority for Strategic Mineral Substances |
| CRMA | Critical Raw Materials Act |
| DRC | Democratic Republic of the Congo |
| EITI | Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative |
| IEA | International Energy Agency |
| IRENA | International Renewable Energy Agency |
| ISA | International Seabed Authority |
| NdFeB | neodymium-iron-boron |
| NdPr | neodymium-praseodymium |
| REO | rare earth oxide |
| USGS | United States Geological Survey |
| LMIC | low- and middle-income countries |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-SR04-MAG-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Regional notes | regional mineral cards | WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: top refiner share
- Construct
- the share of refined output held by the largest refining country for a mineral
- Unit
- percent
- Method
- average across minerals excluding rare earths, as published by the IEA
- Source
- IEA Outlook 20262
- Uncertainty
- depends on mineral coverage and on the refined product definition
- Known limits
- does not record stocks, capacity utilisation or trade controls
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, export control announcements of 2025 (Announcements 18, 61 and 62 and the joint suspension, numbered 70 in some summaries), taken from secondary summaries; the official texts were not retrieved and sources disagree on the numbering. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; the EUR-Lex request returned no text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Seabed Authority, Council and Assembly sessions in Kingston, March and July 2026, on the draft exploitation regulations (Mining Code), taken from search-result summaries and a research-institute blog; no official statement was found. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back