Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

10 min read0 figures8 tables20 notesNR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Small volumes, large dependence
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
    1. B.1 The indicator set
    2. B.2 Global source register
    3. B.3 Regional reading, ten regional clusters
    4. B.4 Regional card: Democratic Republic of the Congo cobalt
    5. B.5 How countries appear in the global edition
    6. B.6 Licences
    7. B.7 Formats and provenance
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Global baseline indicator set
IndicatorValueUnitYearStateSource
Top refiner share, average excluding rare earths72%2025Reported2
Top refiner share, same measure70%2023Reported2
World rare earth mine output390,000tonnes REO2025Reported1
China rare earth mine output270,000tonnes REO2025Reported1
China share of primary low-purity gallium99%2025Reported1
World mined cobalt310,000tonnes2025Reported1
DRC share of mined cobalt73%2025Reported1
DRC export cap, cobalt content96,600tonnes a year2026 to 2027Reported1
Cobalt metal price, near peak≈ 58,000USD per tonneQ1 2026Reported2
Downstream output at risk, rare earth controls6.5USD trillion a year2026Estimated2
Change in critical mineral investment−9%2025Reported2
Public finance commitments, advanced economies≈ 65USD billion2025Reported2
US critical minerals that are fully import reliant13 of 60minerals2025Reported1
US value of recycled critical minerals18USD billion2025Reported1
NdPr oxide price floor in the US agreement110USD per kg2025Reported20
Indicators, CSVIndicators, JSON

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

  • MIN
  • TRD
  • FIN
  • INF
  • ENE
  • DAT
  • CLI
  • BIO
  • AIC
  • FOO
Table B.3Global source register
SourceCategoryCoveragePeriodCadenceRole
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries1national agencyglobal and US2025annualproduction and import reliance
IEA Outlook 20262intergovernmental agencyglobal2025 to 2026annualmarkets and policy
IEA Outlook 20253intergovernmental agencyglobal2024 to 2025annualconcentration trend
IRENA critical materials4intergovernmental agencyglobal2022one-offmining and refining shares
Export-control briefings567legal and advisory notesChina and US2025 to 2026per eventcontrol scope and dates
DRC quota reporting910trade pressDRC2025 to 2026per eventquota volumes
European Commission pages111213EU institutionEU2023 to 2025periodicbenchmarks and plans
US executive orders1415governmentUS2025per eventpermitting and seabed
G7 texts1819intergovernmental groupG72025per eventroadmap
MP Materials releases2021companyUS2025 to 2026quarterlyrare earth output

B.3Regional reading, ten regional clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

Table B.4Regional reading, ten regional clusters
RegionPrincipal hazardsSystems most exposedBaseline evidence
North Americarefining and magnet build-out; import reliancemagnets, batteries, defenceUSGS1; company release21
South Americalithium, copper and graphite supply; export policybatteries, gridsIEA2
Europebenchmarks, strategic projects, recyclingmagnets, batteriesCommission pages1113
Eurasiasanctions and conflict effects not consolidated heretitanium, nickel, palladiumregional statistics (not bound)
Middle East and North Africasulphur and aluminium exposure to the 2026 conflictaluminium, acidIEA2
Africacobalt, copper, graphite and lithium producers; export policybatteries, gridsUSGS1; IEA2
South Asianational mission and processing build-outbatteries, magnetsnational mission45
East Asiarefining, magnet and cell manufacturing hubsmagnets, batteries, chipsIEA2
ASEANnickel and cobalt by-product growth in Indonesiabatteries, steelUSGS1; IEA2
Oceania-Pacificlithium, rare earth and gallium projects; a strategic reservemagnets, chipsframework commentary22

B.4Regional card: Democratic Republic of the Congo cobalt

  • region
  • cobalt
  • export quota
  • strategic reserve
Systems in view
batteries, superalloys, chemicals
Defining events
export ban in February 2025 and quotas from October 202529
Couplings
MIN → FIN; MIN → TRD
Capability evidence
a quota system and a strategic reserve set up in April 202610
Gaps
quota use by company; stock levels
Agenda items
M-01 · M-03

Exports of contained cobalt are capped at up to 96,600 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 tonnes for strategic reserves [1].

QUOTA

Annual cap

The regulator set up a strategic reserve in April 2026 and can buy, hold and sell [10].

RESERVE

State reserve

Indonesia produced an estimated 44,000 tonnes in 2025, about 14% of world mine output [1].

SUPPLY

Alternative supply

B.5How countries appear in the global edition

Countries enter the critical minerals edition through the mineral chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

Table B.5How countries appear in the global edition
Card fieldWhat it showsSource
WEFH+B stateeach core system against peer distribution bandsnational edition
Couplingsthe national dependency matrixnational edition
Risk objectsthe national risk portfolionational edition
Capability rungsthe national capability laddernational edition
Evidence ageoldest and newest source datesnational source register

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

26national

countries and unions

10regional

clusters

16global

flagship and sector

14strategic

systems reports

20frontier

technology reports

How to read a country card

  • Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
  • Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
  • Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
  • Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such
Table B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
WaveCountries and unionsState
W0CanadaISSUED
W1United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, SwitzerlandPLANNED
W2Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, AustraliaPLANNED

B.6Licences

Table B.7Licences of each kind of material
MaterialLicence
TextCC BY 4.0
Dataon the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
FiguresNexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Mapsboundary source and licence printed on each plate
MetadataCC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and textThe source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.8This edition in every format
FormatKindStateWhat it isIdentifier
Web editionHTMLOn this siteDraft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print editionPDFAt releaseA4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator dataCSV · JSONOn this site15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1
FiguresSVG · PNGOn this site4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.FIG-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*
SlidesPDFNot recordedNo slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence briefHTML · PDFNot recordedNo evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOIDataCiteAt releaseConcept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack
The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut
DC-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check
14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections
Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 20MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 4IRENA (ed.), Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 5Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 6China Briefing (ed.), How Will China’s Rare Earth Export Controls Impact Industries and Businesses? (April 2025 controls on seven rare earths; October 2025 additions and extraterritorial rules; 45-day licence period). Dezan Shira and Associates. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 7POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 9Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 10Shanghai Metals Market (ed.), Congo creates strategic cobalt reserve to influence supply and prices, regulator says (news report of 16 April 2026; reserve run by ARECOMS; 10% of national export volumes, 9,600 tonnes in 2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 11European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 12European Commission, Critical raw materials (web page; 2023 list of 34 critical raw materials with copper and nickel listed as strategic; earlier lists 2011 to 2020). Brussels. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 13European Commission and the EU Circular Economy Stakeholder Platform, European Commission adopts RESourceEU Action Plan (platform post of 10 December 2025; plan adopted 3 December 2025). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 14The White House, Executive Order 14241, Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production, 20 March 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 15The White House, Executive Order 14285, Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources, 24 April 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 18G7 Leaders, G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan, Kananaskis, 17 June 2025 (read in an archive copy of the text). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 19G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 21MP Materials, MP Materials Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, 26 February 2026 (REO in concentrate 50,692 tonnes; NdPr oxide 2,599 tonnes; first NdFeB magnets on commercial equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025; company-reported figures). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of India, National Critical Mineral Mission, cleared by the Union Cabinet on 29 January 2025 (outlay of INR 16,300 crore over seven years), taken from search-result summaries; the press release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 22CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex B: Data appendix. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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