Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 quantum agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 quantum edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Quantum is infrastructure and a cryptographic deadline
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Long-lived data exposure while migration is slow
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the quantum candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. Q-01

    How much long-lived sensitive data is exposed to later decryption, and how fast is migration to post-quantum cryptography in each sector?

    INI-XT02-HND-01 · exposure and migration; first output: sector migration register.

  2. Q-02

    What do useful-scale machines need in power, cooling and cryogenic supply, and how does that compare with classical methods?

    INI-XT02-ENE-02 · energy and cooling footprint; first output: footprint estimates by platform.

  3. Q-03

    How large is the helium-3 and helium-4 supply for cryogenics, and where are the chokepoints?

    INI-XT02-HEL-03 · helium supply; first output: supply map.

  4. Q-04

    Which materials and fabrication steps are single points of failure for quantum hardware?

    INI-XT02-MAT-04 · materials and fabrication; first output: dependence map.

  5. Q-05

    How can logical-qubit and fidelity claims be compared on a common basis?

    INI-XT02-BMK-05 · claims on a common basis; first output: benchmark table.

  6. Q-06

    Which national roadmaps set migration dates, and how do they differ?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: roadmap overlay.

  7. Q-07

    What workforce exists for hardware, cryogenics and cryptographic migration?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. Q-08

    Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real migrations, and which are only planned?

    Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 quantum portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-XT02-HND-01Exposure and migrationInitiativeQ-01PROPOSED
INI-XT02-ENE-02Energy and cooling footprintInitiativeQ-02PROPOSED
INI-XT02-HEL-03Helium supplyInitiativeQ-03PROPOSED
INI-XT02-MAT-04Materials and fabricationInitiativeQ-04PROPOSED
INI-XT02-BMK-05Claims on a common basisInitiativeQ-05PROPOSED
MSN-XT02-2027-01Long-lived data Universe missionMissionQ-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The quantum edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, minerals and cybersecurity, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National readiness chapters

    quantum and cryptographic readiness in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector couplings

    GS-02 energy · XT-10 cryptography · SR-04 minerals

    GS-02 DRAFTED · sector baselines

  3. 03

    Technology system model

    hardware, cryogenics, materials, workforce, governance

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    XT-02 report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the quantum candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the quantum candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-XT02-2027-01 · Long-lived data Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
INF-001 · error correctionINI-XT02-BMK-05claims on a common basisPUBLIC
CRY-004 · resource estimateINI-XT02-HND-01exposure and migrationPUBLIC
CRY-005 · standardsINI-XT02-HND-01exposure and migrationPUBLIC
GOV-006 · EU roadmapregional consortiaroadmap overlayPUBLIC
ENE-009 · energy estimateINI-XT02-ENE-02 · key F reviewenergy and cooling footprintPUBLIC
MIN-010 · heliumINI-XT02-HEL-03helium supplyPUBLIC
FIN-008 · investmentINI-XT02-MAT-04materials and fabricationPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-XT02-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Preprint servers and journals on error correctionpeer review and preprintscontinuousINF-001
NIST post-quantum project pagesNISTper releaseCRY-005
EU digital strategy pages and the cooperation groupEuropean Commissionper releaseGOV-006
Vendor roadmaps and announcementscompaniesper eventINF-002
Critical minerals outlookIEAannualMIN-010
Quantum Technology MonitorMcKinseyannualFIN-008
Helium market noticesproducers and agenciesper eventMIN-010

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-XT02-001Resource estimate for RSA-2048 fell below one million qubits1CORROBORATEDINF · DATresearch question Q-01
SIG-XT02-002Helium disrupted by the 2026 Hormuz closure10PARTIALMIN · INFinitiative Q-03
SIG-XT02-003Vendor fidelity claim at the November 2025 launch42PARTIALINFresearch question Q-05

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 10IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 42Quantinuum (ed.), Quantinuum announces commercial launch of Helios (press release, 5 November 2025; 98 qubits, 99.921% two-qubit and 99.9975% single-qubit gate fidelity; 94 error-detected and 48 error-corrected logical qubits; no logical gate fidelity stated). Quantinuum, Broomfield. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Quantum Technologies (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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