Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

8 min read0 figures8 tables14 notesNR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Quantum is infrastructure and a cryptographic deadline
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Long-lived data exposure while migration is slow
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
    1. B.1 The indicator set
    2. B.2 Global source register
    3. B.3 Regional reading, quantum across ten clusters
    4. B.4 Cluster card: dilution-refrigerator supply chain
    5. B.5 How countries appear in the quantum edition
    6. B.6 Licences
    7. B.7 Formats and provenance
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Global baseline indicator set
IndicatorValueUnitYearStateSource
Qubits in distance-7 surface code experiment101qubits2024Reported2
Logical error per cycle, distance 70.143%2024Reported2
Error suppression per distance step2.14factor2024Reported2
RSA-2048 noisy-qubit estimate<1million2025Reported1
Assumed gate error in estimate0.1%2025Reported1
Earlier RSA-2048 estimate≈20million qubits2021Reported27
IBM Nighthawk processor120qubits2026Reported8
IBM Starling target200logical qubits2029 planScenario8
IBM Starling target gates100million gates2029 planScenario8
NIST post-quantum standards finalised3standards2024Reported3
Startup investment12.6USD billion2025Reported11
Growth in startup investment6.3times2025Reported11
Company revenues>1USD billion2025Reported11
EU quantum flagship budget1EUR billion2018Reported7
European gallium price against Chinese domestic≈5times2026Reported10
Tungsten price rise, strategic minor minerals≈6times2025 to 2026Reported10
Indicators, CSVIndicators, JSON

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

  • INF
  • DAT
  • FIN
  • MIN
  • ENE
  • CLI
  • TRD
  • WAT
  • HLT
  • FOO
Table B.3Global source register
SourceCategoryCoveragePeriodCadenceRole
Nature paper on error correction2peer-reviewed journalone platform2024one-offhardware
Gidney preprint1preprint serverRSA-20482025one-offresource estimate
NIST news release3national standards bodyUS and global2024one-offstandards
NIST IR 854745national standards bodyUS2024 and 2026periodictransition
European Commission pages67EU institutionEU2025 to 2026continuouspolicy
IBM roadmap page8vendorglobal2026continuousplan
Jaschke and Montangero9peer-reviewed journalmethod2023one-offenergy
IEA Critical Minerals Outlook10intergovernmental agencyglobal2025annualminerals, helium
McKinsey Monitor11consultancyglobal2025annualinvestment
NSA CNSA 2.014national agencyUS2022 to 2025periodictimetable

B.3Regional reading, quantum across ten clusters

Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of quantum infrastructure and exposure in table form and ranks no region.

Table B.4Regional reading, quantum across ten clusters
RegionPrincipal hazardsSystems most exposedBaseline evidence
North Americavendor hardware; federal migration directivescryptography, supplyNIST35; IBM8
South Americaearly national programmes; migration planningcryptographyregional evidence (not bound)
EuropeEU strategy and roadmap; flagship fundingcryptography, researchEuropean Commission67
Eurasiaresearch programmes; export controlsresearch, supplyregional evidence (not bound)
Middle East and North Africahelium and gas exposurecryogenic supplyIEA minerals outlook10
Africaskills and accessworkforceregional evidence (not bound)
South Asianational mission programmesresearch, skillsregional evidence (not bound)
East Asiafabrication and materials; national programmessupply, researchIEA minerals outlook10
ASEANmigration planning; fabrication partnerscryptography, supplyregional evidence (not bound)
Oceania-Pacificresearch programmes; skillsresearch, workforceregional evidence (not bound)

B.4Cluster card: dilution-refrigerator supply chain

  • supply chain
  • cryogenics
  • helium-3
  • single point
Systems in view
hardware, cryogenics, helium, research laboratories
Defining events
helium market disruption linked to the 2026 Hormuz closure10
Couplings
MIN → INF helium; TRD → MIN chokepoints
Capability evidence
recycling and alternative cryocooler programmes reported13
Gaps
helium-3 volumes; reserves; production capacity
Agenda items
Q-03 · Q-04

Helium-3 is scarce, and many superconducting machines need it with helium-4 to reach millikelvin temperatures [13] [33].

SUPPLY

Helium-3 scarcity

The IEA records that the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted helium markets as well as aluminium and sulphur [10].

MARKET

A 2026 disruption

Reported responses include recycling, reserves and cryocoolers that avoid helium-3. None is documented at scale here [13].

RESPONSE

Alternatives

B.5How countries appear in the quantum edition

Countries enter the quantum edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Table B.5How countries appear in the quantum edition
Card fieldWhat it showsSource
WEFH+B stateeach core system against peer distribution bandsnational edition
Couplingsthe national dependency matrixnational edition
Risk objectsthe national risk portfolionational edition
Capability rungsthe national capability laddernational edition
Evidence ageoldest and newest source datesnational source register

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

26national

countries and unions

10regional

clusters

16global

flagship and sector

14strategic

systems reports

20frontier

technology reports

How to read a country card

  • Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
  • Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
  • Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
  • Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such
Table B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
WaveCountries and unionsState
W0CanadaISSUED
W1United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, SwitzerlandPLANNED
W2Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, AustraliaPLANNED

B.6Licences

Table B.7Licences of each kind of material
MaterialLicence
TextCC BY 4.0
Dataon the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
FiguresNexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Mapsboundary source and licence printed on each plate
MetadataCC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and textThe source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.8This edition in every format
FormatKindStateWhat it isIdentifier
Web editionHTMLOn this siteDraft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.NR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print editionPDFAt releaseA4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.NR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator dataCSV · JSONOn this site16 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.NR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1
FiguresSVG · PNGOn this site4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.FIG-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*
SlidesPDFNot recordedNo slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence briefHTML · PDFNot recordedNo evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOIDataCiteAt releaseConcept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack
The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut
DC-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check
14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections
Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2025 (preprint arXiv:2408.13687, August 2024). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gidney, C. and Ekerå, M., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits, Quantum 5, 433, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 8IBM (ed.), IBM Quantum technology and roadmap page (Nighthawk 120 qubits; Starling planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates; statement on advantage in 2026). IBM, Armonk. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey and Company (ed.), Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 (startup investment USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times 2024; company revenues above USD 1 billion; about 97% private funding), taken from search-result summaries; the chart page returned a service error. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 7European Commission (ed.), Quantum policy page (Quantum Europe Strategy adopted July 2025; Quantum Act planned for 2026; Quantum Technologies Flagship EUR 1 billion from 2018; EuroHPC quantum computers EUR 100 million, October 2022). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 10IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 4NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, initial public draft (publication page; published 12 November 2024; comment period closed 10 January 2025). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 5POST-CLOSE, context only: NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, final (publication page; document history 27 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; abstract refers to Executive Order 14412 and OMB Memorandum M-26-15). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 6European Commission (ed.), Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (library page; roadmap published 23 June 2025; page updated 3 September 2026; the roadmap milestones were not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 9Jaschke, D. and Montangero, S., Is quantum computing green? An estimate for an energy-efficiency quantum advantage, Quantum Science and Technology 8, 025001, 2023 (preprint arXiv:2205.12092). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 14UNVERIFIED, not opened: NSA (ed.), Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite 2.0 (CNSA 2.0) advisory and timetable, taken from secondary summaries that differ on some dates. National Security Agency, Fort Meade. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: War on the Rocks (ed.), The supply chain chokepoints in quantum (October 2025), and CNAS (ed.), report on helium-3 recovery and reserves (March 2026), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex B: Data appendix. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Quantum Technologies (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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