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Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables12 notesNR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Quantum is infrastructure and a cryptographic deadline
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Long-lived data exposure while migration is slow
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

INF · Hardware

Qubits in the distance-7 surface code

101qubits

logical error 0.143% per cycle.

Reported2024Nature2

DAT · Cryptography

RSA-2048 resource estimate

<1million qubits

under a week, under stated assumptions.

Reported2025preprint1

INF · Standards

Post-quantum standards finalised by NIST

3standards

FIPS 203, 204 and 205.

Reported2024NIST3

FIN · Finance

Quantum startup investment

12.6USD billion

6.3 times the 2024 level.

Reported2025McKinsey11

MIN · Supply

European gallium price against Chinese domestic price

≈5times

heavy rare earths similar; germanium about 3 times.

Reported2026IEA10

SYS · Cross-system

IBM stated target: logical qubits in 2029

200logical qubits

with 100 million gates; a plan, not a result.

Reported2029 planIBM8

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through quantum, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries quantum risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATCooling-water use of facilities is not published for useful-scale machines.ENE → WATExpert input EQL 1
ENEMachine-level energy use is unpublished; one estimate favours classical methods for some problems.ENE ↔ INFReported EQL 3
FOONo documented coupling at baseline; applications in catalysis are not yet evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
HLTNo documented coupling at baseline; sensing and drug discovery claims are not yet evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
BIONo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
CLIEnergy and cryogen footprint matter if machines scale; no figure bound.INF → CLIExpert input EQL 1
INFThe core system: error correction below threshold at small scale; three standards finalised; a 2029 plan.the core systemReported EQL 4
FINUSD 12.6 billion of startup investment in 2025; revenue above USD 1 billion.FIN → INFReported EQL 3
DATLong-lived data face later decryption; migration is a planning task now.INF → DATReported EQL 4
AICNo documented coupling to other compute platforms at baseline; hybrid claims are not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
MINHelium markets disrupted in 2026; strategic minor minerals prices rose sharply.MIN → INFReported EQL 3
TRDExport controls and chokepoints shape access to hardware and materials.INF ↔ TRDInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on quantum, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemquantum couples to energy, minerals and cryptographyharvest-now exposureTHIN
GS-01Watercooling-water use not publishedfacility sitingTHIN
GS-02Energyenergy footprint unpublished9load from large facilitiesTHIN
GS-03Foodno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-04Healthno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-05FinanceUSD 12.6 billion of startup investment11cryptographic migration costPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentaccess to technology and skillswidening gapsTHIN
GS-07Climatefootprint at scale not boundenergy demandTHIN
GS-08Disasterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-09Infrastructurecryogenic and facility needs13single-site dependenceTHIN
GS-10Citiesno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationquantum sensing applications not evidenced herenone documentedTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalpost-quantum standards finalised3migration lagGOOD
GS-14PolicyEU strategy and roadmap67export controls and fundingPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencestrong peer-reviewed base22930common benchmarksGOOD

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2025 (preprint arXiv:2408.13687, August 2024). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey and Company (ed.), Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 (startup investment USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times 2024; company revenues above USD 1 billion; about 97% private funding), taken from search-result summaries; the chart page returned a service error. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 10IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 8IBM (ed.), IBM Quantum technology and roadmap page (Nighthawk 120 qubits; Starling planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates; statement on advantage in 2026). IBM, Armonk. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 9Jaschke, D. and Montangero, S., Is quantum computing green? An estimate for an energy-efficiency quantum advantage, Quantum Science and Technology 8, 025001, 2023 (preprint arXiv:2205.12092). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: War on the Rocks (ed.), The supply chain chokepoints in quantum (October 2025), and CNAS (ed.), report on helium-3 recovery and reserves (March 2026), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 6European Commission (ed.), Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (library page; roadmap published 23 June 2025; page updated 3 September 2026; the roadmap milestones were not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 7European Commission (ed.), Quantum policy page (Quantum Europe Strategy adopted July 2025; Quantum Act planned for 2026; Quantum Technologies Flagship EUR 1 billion from 2018; EuroHPC quantum computers EUR 100 million, October 2022). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fowler, A.G. et al., Surface codes: towards practical large-scale quantum computation, Physical Review A 86, 032324, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Arute, F. et al., Quantum supremacy using a programmable superconducting processor, Nature 574, 505 to 510, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Quantum Technologies (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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