Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables11 notesNR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Quantum is infrastructure and a cryptographic deadline
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Long-lived data exposure while migration is slow
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Quantum technologies matter to the Nexus programme in two ways. They are a new physical infrastructure, built from superconducting circuits, trapped ions and cold atoms that need dilution refrigerators, helium, specialised materials and skilled people. They are also a reason to change the cryptography that protects other infrastructure. The hardware evidence is strong at small scale. A 2024 experiment showed a surface code on 101 qubits whose logical error fell by a factor of 2.14 for each step up in code distance2. IBM states a plan for a fault-tolerant machine with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates in 20298. A 2025 preprint estimates that RSA-2048 could be factored with under a million noisy qubits in under a week, under stated assumptions1. NIST finalised three post-quantum standards on 13 August 20243, and the European Commission published a coordinated roadmap on 23 June 20256. Investment grew: startups raised USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times the level of 2024, according to McKinsey11. The physical base is exposed. Helium markets were disrupted when the Strait of Hormuz closed in 202610, and the energy footprint of useful machines is not yet published. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no capability date and ranks no country or vendor.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the quantum baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. Below threshold on one platform at small code distances.2

    Is error correction working?Reported

  2. A 2025 estimate: under a million noisy qubits in under a week, under stated assumptions.1

    How many qubits would break RSA-2048?Reported

  3. Three NIST standards were finalised in August 2024.3

    Are post-quantum standards ready?Reported

  4. National roadmaps by the end of 2026; milestones to 2035.615

    What does Europe ask?Reported

  5. USD 12.6 billion of startup investment in 2025.11

    What does the money look like?Reported

  6. Not published for useful-scale machines; a 2023 estimate favours classical methods for some problems.9

    What is the energy footprint?Reported

  7. Helium markets were disrupted in 2026; helium-3 is scarce.1013

    Is the supply base exposed?Reported

  8. Long-lived data exposed to later decryption while migration is slow. SCN-XT02-HND-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CRY-005

NIST finalised three post-quantum cryptography standards on 13 August 2024: FIPS 203 (ML-KEM), FIPS 204 (ML-DSA) and FIPS 205 (SLH-DSA).

Figure S.1Standards finalised on 13 August 2024
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
FIPS 203 · key establishment (ML-KEM)1
FIPS 204 · signatures (ML-DSA)1
FIPS 205 · backup signatures (SLH-DSA)1

Source: NIST news release of 13 August 20243. Each bar counts one standard.

Standards exist, so migration is now an engineering and planning task. NIST urged administrators to start integrating them immediately and said there was no need to wait for further standards. A fourth draft standard, FIPS 206 (FN-DSA), was planned3. The transition report NIST IR 8547 is an initial public draft at the evidence close4.

S.4At a glance

101qubits

distance-7 code2

<1million

qubits for RSA-2048, estimate1

3standards

NIST, August 20243

12.6USD billion

startup investment, 202511

200logical qubits

IBM target, 20298

2035milestone

EU roadmap, as reported15

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading quantum technology as physical infrastructure and as a cryptographic deadline.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the quantum story arrives as a message about encryption, a headline about a machine or an investment boom.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Private investment is large, public finance is a small share, and migration has costs that fall on operators.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Quantum technology is well described by single results and thinly measured as a system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of quantum technologies as infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a forecast of when any machine will break any cipher, a technology ranking, an endorsement of any vendor or an assessment of any programme. Standards, export controls and funding are decisions of competent authorities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 quantum edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2025 (preprint arXiv:2408.13687, August 2024). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 8IBM (ed.), IBM Quantum technology and roadmap page (Nighthawk 120 qubits; Starling planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates; statement on advantage in 2026). IBM, Armonk. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 6European Commission (ed.), Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (library page; roadmap published 23 June 2025; page updated 3 September 2026; the roadmap milestones were not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey and Company (ed.), Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 (startup investment USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times 2024; company revenues above USD 1 billion; about 97% private funding), taken from search-result summaries; the chart page returned a service error. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 10IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 15UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIS Cooperation Group PQC workstream (eds.), A Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (milestones: roadmaps by the end of 2026, high-risk use cases by 2030, as many systems as feasible by 2035), taken from secondary summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 9Jaschke, D. and Montangero, S., Is quantum computing green? An estimate for an energy-efficiency quantum advantage, Quantum Science and Technology 8, 025001, 2023 (preprint arXiv:2205.12092). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: War on the Rocks (ed.), The supply chain chokepoints in quantum (October 2025), and CNAS (ed.), report on helium-3 recovery and reserves (March 2026), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 4NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, initial public draft (publication page; published 12 November 2024; comment period closed 10 January 2025). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Quantum Technologies (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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