- Quantum Technologies 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Quantum is infrastructure and a cryptographic deadline
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Long-lived data exposure while migration is slow
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Fall in estimated qubits for RSA-2048, 2021 to 2025 | 20 ÷ 1 | about 20 times |
| (2) | Physical qubits per logical qubit in the distance-7 experiment | 101 ÷ 1 | 101 |
| (3) | Startup investment in 2024 implied by 6.3 times growth | 12.6 ÷ 6.3 | ≈ USD 2.0 billion |
| (4) | Gate operations per logical qubit in IBM 2029 plan | 100,000,000 ÷ 200 | 500,000 |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Quantum System Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-XT02-QUANTUM · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent quantum technologies as infrastructure coupled to energy, cryogenic supply, materials, finance, workforce and cryptographic security
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
0strong
documented within one season
0moderate
documented, buffered
20weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 42 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 quantum annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Quantum System Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Error correction experiment | 2024 | Aug 2024 · Nature 2025 | one-off | follow-up papers |
| RSA-2048 estimate | 2025 | May 2025 | one-off | revisions |
| Post-quantum standards | 2024 | Aug 2024 | periodic | FIPS 206 |
| Transition report | 2024 draft · 2026 final | Nov 2024 · Oct 2026 | periodic | next revision |
| EU roadmap | 2025 | Jun 2025 | periodic | national roadmaps |
| IBM plan | 2026 | page read 2026-11-03 | continuous | next roadmap update |
| Energy estimate | 2022 to 2023 | Nov 2022 · 2023 | one-off | new studies |
| Helium disruption | 2026 | Oct 2025 to 2026 | per event | monthly |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Hardware | PARTIAL | claims on a common basis |
| Cryptography | GOOD | migration progress |
| Governance | PARTIAL | roadmap text and dates |
| Investment | PARTIAL | public funding totals |
| Energy | THIN | machine-level energy use |
| Supply | THIN | helium-3 volumes |
| Skills | THIN | workforce numbers |
| Sensing and communication | THIN | deployment and market data |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Energy and cooling-water use of useful-scale machines | vendors, national laboratories, peer-reviewed footprint studies | not published on a common basis; only a 2023 estimate was read9 |
| Helium-3 and helium-4 supply and demand volumes for cryogenics | producers, DOE isotope programme, national statistics | not retrieved; analyses found are commentary13 |
| Logical-qubit counts and fidelities on a common basis | peer-reviewed papers for each vendor claim42 | vendor announcements only; peer review not located |
| Milestones in the EU coordinated roadmap, from the primary document | European Commission roadmap PDF6 | the page was read; milestones come from secondary summaries15 |
| NSA CNSA 2.0 timetable from the NSA documents | NSA CNSA 2.0 publications14 | secondary summaries only; dates differ across them |
| NIST IR 8547 final text, including any dates for deprecating algorithms | NIST IR 8547 final5 | published 27 October 2026, after the evidence close; the page abstract states no dates |
| Post-quantum migration progress by sector and country | national agencies, regulators, sector bodies | no consolidated series found |
| McKinsey Monitor figures from the report itself | McKinsey Quantum Technology Monitor 202611 | the chart page returned a service error; figures come from search summaries |
| Public funding totals for national quantum programmes | national strategies, OECD, ministries2223 | not consolidated; the EU figures read are for the flagship and EuroHPC only7 |
| Fabrication capacity and materials dependence by country | industry and trade statistics | not retrieved |
| Quantum workforce size and skills gaps | national statistics, OECD, industry surveys | not retrieved; capability rung stays LISTED |
| Quantum sensing and communication deployment and market data | agencies, industry bodies | not retrieved; no figure used |
| Vendor roadmap details beyond the IBM page | company roadmaps and papers | one roadmap page read; the guided roadmap file was not opened8 |
| Capability rungs beyond standards and planning | agencies, operators, laboratories | not reviewed |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Published in Nature 638 (2025) by Google Quantum AI; preprint of August 2024. One-off experiment. Role: binds INF-001. Coverage: one superconducting platform.
EVD-XT02-001
Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold2
Issued by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology on 13 August 2024. One-off. Role: binds CRY-005 and the standards tiles. Coverage: US federal standards used globally.
EVD-XT02-002
NIST post-quantum standards news release3
| Dimension | EVD-XT02-001 | EVD-XT02-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | one platform; code distances 5 and 7 | three standards; a fourth draft planned |
| Timeliness | about 12 months from preprint to journal | issued at publication |
| Revision | preprint and journal versions | transition report revised in 2026 |
| Method transparency | methods and data published | selection process published |
| External validation | peer review | public review rounds |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| CNSA | Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite |
| FIPS | Federal Information Processing Standard |
| FN-DSA | FFT over NTRU-lattice digital signature algorithm |
| IR | NIST Internal Report |
| ML-DSA | module-lattice digital signature algorithm |
| ML-KEM | module-lattice key-encapsulation mechanism |
| NIST | US National Institute of Standards and Technology |
| qLDPC | quantum low-density parity-check |
| RSA | Rivest-Shamir-Adleman public-key cryptosystem |
| SLH-DSA | stateless hash-based digital signature algorithm |
| QKD | quantum key distribution |
| EO | executive order |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-XT02-HND-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Cluster notes | cards for the major quantum hardware and cryogenic clusters | 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: logical error per cycle
- Construct
- probability that an encoded logical qubit holds a wrong value after one round of error correction
- Unit
- percent per cycle
- Method
- repeated syndrome measurement and real-time decoding
- Source
- Nature 638 (2025)2
- Uncertainty
- reported with a standard error of 0.003 percentage points
- Known limits
- one platform and two code distances; rare correlated errors limit repetition-code results
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 9Jaschke, D. and Montangero, S., Is quantum computing green? An estimate for an energy-efficiency quantum advantage, Quantum Science and Technology 8, 025001, 2023 (preprint arXiv:2205.12092). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: War on the Rocks (ed.), The supply chain chokepoints in quantum (October 2025), and CNAS (ed.), report on helium-3 recovery and reserves (March 2026), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42Quantinuum (ed.), Quantinuum announces commercial launch of Helios (press release, 5 November 2025; 98 qubits, 99.921% two-qubit and 99.9975% single-qubit gate fidelity; 94 error-detected and 48 error-corrected logical qubits; no logical gate fidelity stated). Quantinuum, Broomfield. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6European Commission (ed.), Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (library page; roadmap published 23 June 2025; page updated 3 September 2026; the roadmap milestones were not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIS Cooperation Group PQC workstream (eds.), A Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (milestones: roadmaps by the end of 2026, high-risk use cases by 2030, as many systems as feasible by 2035), taken from secondary summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14UNVERIFIED, not opened: NSA (ed.), Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite 2.0 (CNSA 2.0) advisory and timetable, taken from secondary summaries that differ on some dates. National Security Agency, Fort Meade. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5POST-CLOSE, context only: NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, final (publication page; document history 27 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; abstract refers to Executive Order 14412 and OMB Memorandum M-26-15). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey and Company (ed.), Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 (startup investment USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times 2024; company revenues above USD 1 billion; about 97% private funding), taken from search-result summaries; the chart page returned a service error. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Canada (ed.), National Quantum Strategy, January 2023, cited from memory. Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: UK Government (ed.), National Quantum Strategy, March 2023, cited from memory. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7European Commission (ed.), Quantum policy page (Quantum Europe Strategy adopted July 2025; Quantum Act planned for 2026; Quantum Technologies Flagship EUR 1 billion from 2018; EuroHPC quantum computers EUR 100 million, October 2022). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8IBM (ed.), IBM Quantum technology and roadmap page (Nighthawk 120 qubits; Starling planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates; statement on advantage in 2026). IBM, Armonk. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2025 (preprint arXiv:2408.13687, August 2024). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back