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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables15 notesNR-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Robots are infrastructure and a test of institutions
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Humanoid pilots meet a missing safety standard
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

INF · Fleets

Industrial robots installed in 2025

>600thousand

11% above 2024.

Reported2025IFR1

INF · Stock

Operational stock of industrial robots

5million

up 9% on the year.

Reported2025IFR1

TRD · Concentration

China share of installations

59%

354,000 units; suppliers from China held 55% of their home market.

Reported2025IFR1

INF · Density

Robots per 10,000 manufacturing employees, highest reported

1,220robots

South Korea; the global average is 132.

Reported2024IFR3

AIC · Learned control

Robot types in the pooled open dataset

22robot types

from 21 institutions; a research result.

Reported2023preprint8

SYS · Cross-system

Humanoid robot installations, analyst estimate

≈16thousand

over 80% in China; estimates differ by source.

Reported2025Counterpoint13

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through robotics, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries robotics risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATNo documented coupling at baseline; cooling and washdown use of robot facilities is not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
ENEEnergy and battery demand of fleets is unpublished; warehouse and factory loads are not bound.ENE ↔ INFExpert input EQL 1
FOONo documented coupling at baseline; agricultural and food robots are not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
HLTSurgical robots are in wide use by one vendor filing; no figure is bound from an opened source.INF → HLTExpert input EQL 1
BIONo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
CLIFootprint at scale is not bound; no figure for robot-related emissions was read.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
INFThe core system: 5 million industrial robots in operation, driverless vehicles in service, humanoid pilots.the core systemReported EQL 5
FINCompany statements on fleets and production plans; no investment totals bound.FIN → INFReported EQL 2
DATPooled robot datasets exist; safety and incident data are not consolidated.INF ↔ DATReported EQL 3
AICLearned control: generalist policies in research, a household benchmark that remains hard.AIC → INFReported EQL 4
MINRare earth magnet licensing affected a humanoid programme in 2025.MIN → INFReported EQL 3
TRDInstallations are concentrated in China, and export controls shape magnet access.INF ↔ TRDReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on robotics, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemrobots couple to energy, minerals and labourpilot deployments before standardsTHIN
GS-01Waterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-02Energyfleet energy demand unpublishedload from large facilitiesTHIN
GS-03Foodno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-04Healthsurgical robots not evidenced from opened sourcessafety of medical robotsTHIN
GS-05Financecompany fleet statements14labour adjustment costTHIN
GS-06Developmentaccess to automation and skillswidening gapsTHIN
GS-07Climatefootprint at scale not boundenergy demandTHIN
GS-08Disasterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-09Infrastructurewarehouse fleets and driverless vehicles414single-operator dependencePARTIAL
GS-10Citiesdriverless vehicles in four US cities5street-level safety dataPARTIAL
GS-11Biodiversityno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationdrone rules under review25airspace integrationTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalcybersecurity named in the new robot safety standard31connected fleetsTHIN
GS-14PolicyEU machinery rules and UN vehicle regulation1722divergent national rulesGOOD
GS-15Sciencepreprints on learned control7891011common benchmarksPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Robot Density Surges in Europe, Asia and Americas (press release, 8 April 2026; 2024 density: South Korea 1,220, Singapore 818, China 166, global average 132 robots per 10,000 employees). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8Open X-Embodiment Collaboration, Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models, arXiv:2310.08864, submitted 13 October 2023, revised 14 May 2025 (22 robots, 21 institutions). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 13Counterpoint Research (ed.), Global Humanoid Robot Installations Reach 16,000 Units in 2025 as Mass Production Picks Pace (release of 14 January 2026; China above 80%; the page does not describe the method). Analyst estimate, weak evidence. Counterpoint Research, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 14Amazon (ed.), announcement of its one millionth robot and the DeepFleet coordination model (company page; more than 300 facilities; 10% travel-time improvement stated as a projection; the page gives no date, coverage places it in July 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. Amazon, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 4Waymo (ed.), Safety Impact hub (page read November 2026; 271.3 million rider-only miles through June 2026; about 95% fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes than a human benchmark). Company-reported analysis, weak evidence. Waymo, Mountain View. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 5Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (ed.), Waymo’s driverless cars crash less often than people (news release, 23 July 2026; about 50 million driverless miles, 2021 to 2024; 68% lower crash involvement; 81% fewer injury crashes per mile; four cities). IIHS, Arlington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 25UAV Coach (ed.), FAA Says Part 108 Is on the 10-Yard Line, but the BVLOS Rule Is Still Stuck at the White House (article of 16 September 2026; final rule sent to OIRA on 10 July 2026; FAA hopes to publish before the end of 2026). Trade press, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 10218-1:2025 Robots and robotic devices, safety requirements for industrial robots, Part 1 (third edition, published 5 February 2025), taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 22Connected Automated Driving (ed.), UNECE adopts first-ever global rules allowing fully autonomous vehicles (page of 8 July 2026; adopted 24 June 2026; safety-case approach; about 90 existing UN regulations amended). Trade summary of a UN decision, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 7Brohan, A. et al., RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control, arXiv:2307.15818, submitted 28 July 2023 (company authors; 6,000 evaluation trials). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 9Black, K. et al., pi0: A Vision-Language-Action Flow Model for General Robot Control, arXiv:2410.24164, submitted 31 October 2024, revised 8 January 2026 (company preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 10Gemini Robotics Team, Gemini Robotics: Bringing AI into the Physical World, arXiv:2503.20020, submitted 25 March 2025 (company preprint; learning of short-horizon tasks from as few as 100 demonstrations). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 11Octo Model Team, Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy, arXiv:2405.12213, submitted 20 May 2024 (800,000 trajectories from Open X-Embodiment; nine robot platforms). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Robotics and Autonomous Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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