- Robotics and Autonomous Systems 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The robotics baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Robots are infrastructure and a test of institutions
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Humanoid pilots meet a missing safety standard
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 robotics readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Standards Progress | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading robotics as installed infrastructure and as a test of institutions. Fleets are large and concentrated, learned control is moving in research, and field safety and energy footprints are thinly measured. Evidence is strongest for fleet statistics and weakest for humanoid volumes and workforce effects.
INF-001 · INF-002 · INF-007 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people the robot story arrives as a video of a humanoid, a driverless car in the street or a warehouse headline. The baseline asks that public debate separate research results, company claims and independent studies.
INF-005 · INF-006 · INF-007
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Company statements describe fleets and plans, independent evidence is thin, and labour adjustment costs fall locally20. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
INF-006 · INF-007
NEXUS
Synthesis
Robotics is well described by fleet statistics and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind field safety data, publish a comparable energy footprint and test the humanoid pilot pathway before standards arrive.
SYS-012 · R-01 · R-03
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for robotics. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Nexus Standards and Academy | technology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capability | technology editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Robotics is a large installed fleet and a test for rules and institutions. The first is measured by industry statistics; the second is only starting to be measured. Keeping them apart avoids both hype and complacency.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Two stories, one technology
A preprint, a company statement and an independent study carry different weight. This edition labels each and asks for a common basis before learned-control results are compared.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Separate results, claims and studies
Energy, batteries, magnets and actuators are rarely counted. A published footprint would show whether scale is limited by physics, supply or money.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
The footprint is the blind spot
Standards for the robot, the cell and the vehicle exist or are due. Standards for legged and humanoid platforms are still in draft, and field data are thin.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Safety rules arrive after the machines
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 robotics readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Robotics risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- PUBLISHED
- DRAFT
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISO 10218-1:2025 robot safety31 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED 2025 | industrial robot requirements |
| ISO 13482 personal care robots33 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | non-industrial mobile robots |
| ISO 3691-4 driverless industrial trucks34 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | driverless trucks |
| ISO 25785-1 dynamically stable mobile robots32 | ISO | global | DRAFT | legged and humanoid platforms |
| EU Machinery Regulation 2023/12301735 | European Union | EU | APPLIES FROM JANUARY 2027 | machinery placed on the market |
| EU AI Act 2024/16891636 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE · PHASED | AI-based safety components |
| UN GTR 26 and UN Regulation 1852223 | UNECE WP.29 | global | ADOPTED 2026 | automated driving systems |
| NHTSA Standing General Order30 | US DOT NHTSA | US | IN FORCE | crash reporting |
| DoD Directive 3000.092438 | US Department of Defense | US | IN FORCE | autonomy in weapon systems |
| FAA beyond visual line of sight rule2537 | FAA | US | DRAFT | drone operations |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers robotics assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about robotics and autonomous systems as infrastructure and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- preprints and journals; industry federation and agencies; standards and regulations; supply and labour analyses
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brohan et al.7 | preprint | 2023 | context | vision-language-action models |
| Open X-Embodiment collaboration8 | preprint | 2023 | supports | pooled robot data |
| Black et al.9 | preprint | 2024 | context | generalist policy |
| Gemini Robotics team10 | preprint | 2025 | context | company model |
| Octo Model Team11 | preprint | 2024 | supports | open generalist policy |
| Li et al.12 | preprint | 2024 | supports | household benchmark |
| Kusano et al.6 | preprint | 2023 | context | road vehicle crash comparison |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acemoglu and Restrepo20 | working paper | 2017 | supports | labour effects |
| Autor43 | journal article | 2015 | context | automation and jobs |
| Frey and Osborne44 | journal article | 2017 | context | exposure of occupations |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFR World Robotics 2026 release1 | International Federation of Robotics | 2026 | supports | installations and stock |
| IFR World Robotics 2025 release2 | International Federation of Robotics | 2025 | supports | earlier installations |
| IFR robot density release3 | International Federation of Robotics | 2026 | supports | density |
| IIHS study5 | Insurance Institute for Highway Safety | 2026 | supports | road vehicle safety |
| Machinery Regulation page17 | EU-OSHA | 2025 | supports | application date |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Humanoid installations13 | Counterpoint Research | 2026 | context | analyst estimate |
| Amazon robot announcement14 | Amazon | 2025 | context | company statement |
| Atlas production report15 | trade press | 2026 | context | company plan |
| Rare earth controls21 | Adamas Intelligence | 2025 | context | magnet supply |
| AI Index page26 | Stanford HAI | 2026 | context | field overview |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 20Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P., Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets, NBER Working Paper 23285, March 2017 (US adoption 1990 to 2007). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 10218-1:2025 Robots and robotic devices, safety requirements for industrial robots, Part 1 (third edition, published 5 February 2025), taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 13482:2014 Robots and robotic devices, safety requirements for personal care robots, cited from memory. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 3691-4 Industrial trucks, safety requirements and verification, Part 4: Driverless industrial trucks and their systems, cited from memory. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 25785-1, safety requirements for industrial mobile robots with actively controlled stability, Part 1: Robots, committee draft in preparation, taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 June 2023 on machinery, Official Journal of the European Union; the official page returned no content, summary read through the EU-OSHA page. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16European Commission (ed.), AI Act, regulatory framework page (entered into force 1 August 2024; high-risk dates revised by an omnibus in force 27 July 2026; AI-based safety components of products such as surgical robots treated as high-risk). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 of the European Parliament and of the Council laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; summary read through the Commission page. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22Connected Automated Driving (ed.), UNECE adopts first-ever global rules allowing fully autonomous vehicles (page of 8 July 2026; adopted 24 June 2026; safety-case approach; about 90 existing UN regulations amended). Trade summary of a UN decision, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23Bennett Jones (ed.), First Global Regulatory Framework For Autonomous Vehicles (law-firm blog, August 2026; GTR No. 26 and UN Regulation No. 185; SAE levels 3 to 5; legal status of each). Secondary legal commentary, weak evidence. Bennett Jones, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (ed.), Standing General Order 2021-01 on crash reporting, Third Amended order of 24 April 2025, taken from a search summary; the agency page returned an access error. NHTSA, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Lawfare (ed.), Defense Department Updates Autonomous Weapons Systems Directive (article of 27 January 2023; directive reissued effective 25 January 2023; working group established; criteria not changed). Lawfare Institute, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Defense (ed.), Directive 3000.09, Autonomy in Weapon Systems, 25 January 2023, text returned an access error; summary read through a news article. DoD, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UAV Coach (ed.), FAA Says Part 108 Is on the 10-Yard Line, but the BVLOS Rule Is Still Stuck at the White House (article of 16 September 2026; final rule sent to OIRA on 10 July 2026; FAA hopes to publish before the end of 2026). Trade press, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal Aviation Administration (ed.), Normal Category Rulemaking for Beyond Visual Line of Sight, notice of proposed rulemaking (Part 108), August 2025, taken from a search summary of a law-firm note. FAA, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7Brohan, A. et al., RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control, arXiv:2307.15818, submitted 28 July 2023 (company authors; 6,000 evaluation trials). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8Open X-Embodiment Collaboration, Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models, arXiv:2310.08864, submitted 13 October 2023, revised 14 May 2025 (22 robots, 21 institutions). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Black, K. et al., pi0: A Vision-Language-Action Flow Model for General Robot Control, arXiv:2410.24164, submitted 31 October 2024, revised 8 January 2026 (company preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10Gemini Robotics Team, Gemini Robotics: Bringing AI into the Physical World, arXiv:2503.20020, submitted 25 March 2025 (company preprint; learning of short-horizon tasks from as few as 100 demonstrations). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11Octo Model Team, Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy, arXiv:2405.12213, submitted 20 May 2024 (800,000 trajectories from Open X-Embodiment; nine robot platforms). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12Li, C. et al., BEHAVIOR-1K: A Human-Centered, Embodied AI Benchmark with 1,000 Everyday Activities and Realistic Simulation, arXiv:2403.09227, submitted 14 March 2024 (abstract page; 1,000 activities, 50 scenes). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Kusano, K.D. et al., Comparison of Waymo Rider-Only Crash Data to Human Benchmarks at 7.1 Million Miles, arXiv:2312.12675, submitted 20 December 2023, revised 24 October 2024 (authors employed by the operator). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Autor, D.H., Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation, Journal of Economic Perspectives 29(3), 3 to 30, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Frey, C.B. and Osborne, M.A., The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114, 254 to 280, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Global Robot Demand in Factories Doubles Over 10 Years (World Robotics 2025 press release, Frankfurt, 25 September 2025; installations 542,000 in 2024; stock 4,664,000; forecast about 575,000 for 2025). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Robot Density Surges in Europe, Asia and Americas (press release, 8 April 2026; 2024 density: South Korea 1,220, Singapore 818, China 166, global average 132 robots per 10,000 employees). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (ed.), Waymo’s driverless cars crash less often than people (news release, 23 July 2026; about 50 million driverless miles, 2021 to 2024; 68% lower crash involvement; 81% fewer injury crashes per mile; four cities). IIHS, Arlington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Counterpoint Research (ed.), Global Humanoid Robot Installations Reach 16,000 Units in 2025 as Mass Production Picks Pace (release of 14 January 2026; China above 80%; the page does not describe the method). Analyst estimate, weak evidence. Counterpoint Research, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Amazon (ed.), announcement of its one millionth robot and the DeepFleet coordination model (company page; more than 300 facilities; 10% travel-time improvement stated as a projection; the page gives no date, coverage places it in July 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. Amazon, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15Engadget (ed.), Boston Dynamics unveils production-ready version of Atlas robot at CES 2026 (report of 8 January 2026; first customers Hyundai and Google DeepMind; Hyundai plans car-plant use from 2028). Trade press reporting a company plan, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21Adamas Intelligence (ed.), Musk on rare earth export restrictions: Optimus was affected (article of 24 April 2025; Tesla first-quarter 2025 earnings call; arm actuators use permanent magnets). Trade analysis reporting a company statement, weak evidence. Adamas Intelligence, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), 2026 AI Index Report, summary page (chapter on technical performance covers robotics; the page gave no robotics figures). Stanford HAI, Stanford. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia estimate of humanoid shipments in 2025 (about 13,000 units, largest supplier about 5,168 units), taken from a search summary of a news report of 8 January 2026. Analyst estimate. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Unitree company claim of more than 5,500 humanoid robots shipped in 2025, taken from a search summary of a news report. Company claim, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Waymo (ed.), Safety Impact hub (page read November 2026; 271.3 million rider-only miles through June 2026; about 95% fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes than a human benchmark). Company-reported analysis, weak evidence. Waymo, Mountain View. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back