Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables13 notesNR-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Robots are infrastructure and a test of institutions
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Humanoid pilots meet a missing safety standard
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Robots matter to the Nexus programme in two ways. They are a growing physical infrastructure of industrial arms, warehouse fleets, driverless vehicles and, newly, humanoid platforms. They are also a test of whether safety rules, labour institutions and supply chains can keep pace with machines that act in the physical world. The fleet evidence is strong. The International Federation of Robotics reports more than 600,000 industrial robots installed in 2025, up 11%, and an operational stock of 5 million1. China accounted for 354,000 of the installations, 59% of the world total1. Learned control is moving fast in research: one pooled dataset combines data from 22 robot types across 21 institutions8, and a published generalist policy was trained on 800,000 trajectories from it11. Humanoid volumes are small. One analyst estimate counts about 16,000 installations in 2025, more than 80% in China13. For driverless cars, an insurance-institute study found 81% fewer injury crashes per mile than human drivers in four cities from 2021 to 20245. The rules are moving: the EU Machinery Regulation applies from 20 January 202717, and the UN adopted a global regulation for automated driving systems on 24 June 202622. The footprint is thinly measured: energy use, battery supply and field safety data are not published on a common basis. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no deployment and ranks no country or vendor.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the robotics baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. More than 600,000 in 2025, with 5 million in operation.1

    How many industrial robots are installed?Reported

  2. China installed 59% of the 2025 total; the United States was second.1

    Where are they?Reported

  3. Research shows pooled data and shared policies; no common measure of success exists.81112

    Are learned robot policies general yet?Reported

  4. One study found fewer injury crashes per mile for one fleet in four cities.5

    Are driverless cars safer than people?Reported

  5. EU machinery rules apply from January 2027; UN vehicle rules were adopted in June 2026.1722

    What do the rules say?Reported

  6. About 16,000 in 2025 by one estimate; sources differ.1327

    How many humanoids are shipped?Reported

  7. Magnet export licensing affected a humanoid programme in 2025.21

    Is the supply base exposed?Reported

  8. Humanoid pilots in workplaces ahead of a published safety standard. SCN-XT03-HUM-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

The IFR reports more than 600,000 industrial robots installed in 2025, up 11%, and an operational stock of 5 million, up 9%.

Figure S.1Industrial robot installations (thousand units)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
2024542
2025, floor (more than 600)600

Sources: International Federation of Robotics12. The 2025 bar shows the stated floor of 600,000.

Industrial robots are an established infrastructure. The 2025 installations exceeded the 575,000 that the IFR forecast a year earlier, method (1)12. China installed 354,000, and Chinese suppliers held 55% of their home market1. The stock grew 9% by the IFR, while the rounded figures of 5 million and 4.66 million imply about 7%, method (4), a difference probably due to rounding or revision.

S.4At a glance

>600thousand

industrial robots installed, 20251

5million

operational stock, 20251

59%

China share of installations1

1,220per 10,000

highest reported density, 20243

≈16thousand

humanoid installations, 202513

164votes

UN resolution on autonomous weapons, 202518

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading robotics as installed infrastructure and as a test of institutions.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the robot story arrives as a video of a humanoid, a driverless car in the street or a warehouse headline.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Company statements describe fleets and plans, independent evidence is thin, and labour adjustment costs fall locally.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Robotics is well described by fleet statistics and thinly measured as a system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of robotics and autonomous systems as infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a forecast of robot deployment, a technology ranking, an endorsement of any vendor or an assessment of any programme. Safety rules, export controls and weapons policy are decisions of competent authorities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 robotics edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 8Open X-Embodiment Collaboration, Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models, arXiv:2310.08864, submitted 13 October 2023, revised 14 May 2025 (22 robots, 21 institutions). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 11Octo Model Team, Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy, arXiv:2405.12213, submitted 20 May 2024 (800,000 trajectories from Open X-Embodiment; nine robot platforms). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 13Counterpoint Research (ed.), Global Humanoid Robot Installations Reach 16,000 Units in 2025 as Mass Production Picks Pace (release of 14 January 2026; China above 80%; the page does not describe the method). Analyst estimate, weak evidence. Counterpoint Research, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 5Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (ed.), Waymo’s driverless cars crash less often than people (news release, 23 July 2026; about 50 million driverless miles, 2021 to 2024; 68% lower crash involvement; 81% fewer injury crashes per mile; four cities). IIHS, Arlington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 22Connected Automated Driving (ed.), UNECE adopts first-ever global rules allowing fully autonomous vehicles (page of 8 July 2026; adopted 24 June 2026; safety-case approach; about 90 existing UN regulations amended). Trade summary of a UN decision, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 12Li, C. et al., BEHAVIOR-1K: A Human-Centered, Embodied AI Benchmark with 1,000 Everyday Activities and Realistic Simulation, arXiv:2403.09227, submitted 14 March 2024 (abstract page; 1,000 activities, 50 scenes). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia estimate of humanoid shipments in 2025 (about 13,000 units, largest supplier about 5,168 units), taken from a search summary of a news report of 8 January 2026. Analyst estimate. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 21Adamas Intelligence (ed.), Musk on rare earth export restrictions: Optimus was affected (article of 24 April 2025; Tesla first-quarter 2025 earnings call; arm actuators use permanent magnets). Trade analysis reporting a company statement, weak evidence. Adamas Intelligence, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 2International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Global Robot Demand in Factories Doubles Over 10 Years (World Robotics 2025 press release, Frankfurt, 25 September 2025; installations 542,000 in 2024; stock 4,664,000; forecast about 575,000 for 2025). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 3International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Robot Density Surges in Europe, Asia and Americas (press release, 8 April 2026; 2024 density: South Korea 1,220, Singapore 818, China 166, global average 132 robots per 10,000 employees). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution A/RES/80/57, Lethal autonomous weapons systems, adopted 1 December 2025 (164 in favour, 6 against, 7 abstentions), vote record page. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Robotics and Autonomous Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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