Exponential Technology Report 2026: Robotics and Autonomous Systems

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the robotics baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. More than 600,000 in 2025, with 5 million in operation.¹

   How many industrial robots are installed?Reported

2. China installed 59% of the 2025 total; the United States was second.¹

   Where are they?Reported

3. Research shows pooled data and shared policies; no common measure of success exists.⁸¹¹¹²

   Are learned robot policies general yet?Reported

4. One study found fewer injury crashes per mile for one fleet in four cities.⁵

   Are driverless cars safer than people?Reported

5. EU machinery rules apply from January 2027; UN vehicle rules were adopted in June 2026.¹⁷²²

   What do the rules say?Reported

6. About 16,000 in 2025 by one estimate; sources differ.¹³²⁷

   How many humanoids are shipped?Reported

7. Magnet export licensing affected a humanoid programme in 2025.²¹

   Is the supply base exposed?Reported

8. Humanoid pilots in workplaces ahead of a published safety standard. SCN-XT03-HUM-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

The IFR reports more than 600,000 industrial robots installed in 2025, up 11%, and an operational stock of 5 million, up 9%.

Industrial robots are an established infrastructure. The 2025 installations exceeded the 575,000 that the IFR forecast a year earlier, method (1)¹². China installed 354,000, and Chinese suppliers held 55% of their home market¹. The stock grew 9% by the IFR, while the rounded figures of 5 million and 4.66 million imply about 7%, method (4), a difference probably due to rounding or revision.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 8Open X-Embodiment Collaboration, Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models, arXiv:2310.08864, submitted 13 October 2023, revised 14 May 2025 (22 robots, 21 institutions). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 11Octo Model Team, Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy, arXiv:2405.12213, submitted 20 May 2024 (800,000 trajectories from Open X-Embodiment; nine robot platforms). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 13Counterpoint Research (ed.), Global Humanoid Robot Installations Reach 16,000 Units in 2025 as Mass Production Picks Pace (release of 14 January 2026; China above 80%; the page does not describe the method). Analyst estimate, weak evidence. Counterpoint Research, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (ed.), Waymo’s driverless cars crash less often than people (news release, 23 July 2026; about 50 million driverless miles, 2021 to 2024; 68% lower crash involvement; 81% fewer injury crashes per mile; four cities). IIHS, Arlington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 22Connected Automated Driving (ed.), UNECE adopts first-ever global rules allowing fully autonomous vehicles (page of 8 July 2026; adopted 24 June 2026; safety-case approach; about 90 existing UN regulations amended). Trade summary of a UN decision, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 12Li, C. et al., BEHAVIOR-1K: A Human-Centered, Embodied AI Benchmark with 1,000 Everyday Activities and Realistic Simulation, arXiv:2403.09227, submitted 14 March 2024 (abstract page; 1,000 activities, 50 scenes). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia estimate of humanoid shipments in 2025 (about 13,000 units, largest supplier about 5,168 units), taken from a search summary of a news report of 8 January 2026. Analyst estimate. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 21Adamas Intelligence (ed.), Musk on rare earth export restrictions: Optimus was affected (article of 24 April 2025; Tesla first-quarter 2025 earnings call; arm actuators use permanent magnets). Trade analysis reporting a company statement, weak evidence. Adamas Intelligence, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 2International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Global Robot Demand in Factories Doubles Over 10 Years (World Robotics 2025 press release, Frankfurt, 25 September 2025; installations 542,000 in 2024; stock 4,664,000; forecast about 575,000 for 2025). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 3International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Robot Density Surges in Europe, Asia and Americas (press release, 8 April 2026; 2024 density: South Korea 1,220, Singapore 818, China 166, global average 132 robots per 10,000 employees). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution A/RES/80/57, Lethal autonomous weapons systems, adopted 1 December 2025 (164 in favour, 6 against, 7 abstentions), vote record page. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is robotics risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry robotics shocks into other systems?
• Which robotics capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five footprint and governance chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The robotics-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their robotics content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   TRD → MIN → INF

   Magnet export licensing slows actuator supply for robots.

   Reported 2025 licensing and a humanoid programme²¹

2. 02

   AIC → INF

   Learned control widens the tasks robots can attempt.

   Reported pooled data and shared policies⁸¹¹

3. 03

   INF → FIN

   Fleet scale shifts labour demand in exposed local markets.

   Inferred US labour-market study, 1990 to 2007²⁰

4. 04

   ENE → INF

   Facility power and battery supply constrain fleet growth.

   Expert input no figure bound

5. 05

   GOV → INF

   Safety rules set when machines may be placed on the market.

   Reported EU and UN rules¹⁷²²

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 21Adamas Intelligence (ed.), Musk on rare earth export restrictions: Optimus was affected (article of 24 April 2025; Tesla first-quarter 2025 earnings call; arm actuators use permanent magnets). Trade analysis reporting a company statement, weak evidence. Adamas Intelligence, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Robot Density Surges in Europe, Asia and Americas (press release, 8 April 2026; 2024 density: South Korea 1,220, Singapore 818, China 166, global average 132 robots per 10,000 employees). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 8Open X-Embodiment Collaboration, Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models, arXiv:2310.08864, submitted 13 October 2023, revised 14 May 2025 (22 robots, 21 institutions). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 11Octo Model Team, Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy, arXiv:2405.12213, submitted 20 May 2024 (800,000 trajectories from Open X-Embodiment; nine robot platforms). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 7Brohan, A. et al., RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control, arXiv:2307.15818, submitted 28 July 2023 (company authors; 6,000 evaluation trials). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 10Gemini Robotics Team, Gemini Robotics: Bringing AI into the Physical World, arXiv:2503.20020, submitted 25 March 2025 (company preprint; learning of short-horizon tasks from as few as 100 demonstrations). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 12Li, C. et al., BEHAVIOR-1K: A Human-Centered, Embodied AI Benchmark with 1,000 Everyday Activities and Realistic Simulation, arXiv:2403.09227, submitted 14 March 2024 (abstract page; 1,000 activities, 50 scenes). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 13Counterpoint Research (ed.), Global Humanoid Robot Installations Reach 16,000 Units in 2025 as Mass Production Picks Pace (release of 14 January 2026; China above 80%; the page does not describe the method). Analyst estimate, weak evidence. Counterpoint Research, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia estimate of humanoid shipments in 2025 (about 13,000 units, largest supplier about 5,168 units), taken from a search summary of a news report of 8 January 2026. Analyst estimate. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 22Connected Automated Driving (ed.), UNECE adopts first-ever global rules allowing fully autonomous vehicles (page of 8 July 2026; adopted 24 June 2026; safety-case approach; about 90 existing UN regulations amended). Trade summary of a UN decision, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution A/RES/80/57, Lethal autonomous weapons systems, adopted 1 December 2025 (164 in favour, 6 against, 7 abstentions), vote record page. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 2International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Global Robot Demand in Factories Doubles Over 10 Years (World Robotics 2025 press release, Frankfurt, 25 September 2025; installations 542,000 in 2024; stock 4,664,000; forecast about 575,000 for 2025). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 20Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P., Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets, NBER Working Paper 23285, March 2017 (US adoption 1990 to 2007). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

The IFR reports more than 600,000 industrial robots installed in 2025, up 11%, and an operational stock of 5 million, up 9%.

Implication

Industrial robots are an established infrastructure. The 2025 installations exceeded the 575,000 that the IFR forecast a year earlier, method (1)¹². China installed 354,000, and Chinese suppliers held 55% of their home market¹. The stock grew 9% by the IFR, while the rounded figures of 5 million and 4.66 million imply about 7%, method (4), a difference probably due to rounding or revision.

What would move it

The IFR forecast of 655,000 for 2026 and 806,000 for 2029¹, national releases and service robot statistics would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

   The IFR reports more than 600,000 industrial robots installed in 2025, up 11%, and an operational stock of 5 million, up 9%; China installed 354,000, 59% of the world total.¹²

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

   The IFR reports 2024 robot density of 1,220 robots per 10,000 manufacturing employees in South Korea and 818 in Singapore, against a global average of 132 and 166 in China.³

3. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-005

   One analyst estimate counts about 16,000 humanoid robot installations in 2025, more than 80% in China; a second analyst estimate is lower and company claims differ.¹³²⁷²⁸

4. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-006

   Amazon states that it has deployed its one millionth robot across more than 300 facilities and projects a 10% gain in fleet travel time from a new coordination model; both are company statements.¹⁴

5. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-007

   An insurance-institute study of about 50 million driverless miles found 68% lower crash involvement and 81% fewer injury crashes per mile than human drivers in four US cities, 2021 to 2024; the operator reports larger reductions in its own analysis.⁴⁵⁶

2.3AIC

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-003

   An open dataset pools data from 22 robot types across 21 institutions, and a published generalist policy was trained on 800,000 trajectories from it.⁸¹¹

2. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-004

   A company paper reports that a robot foundation model can learn new short-horizon tasks from as few as 100 demonstrations; the result is vendor-authored and not independently reproduced.¹⁰

2.4Governance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008

   The EU Machinery Regulation replaces the Machinery Directive and applies from 20 January 2027; the EU AI Act applies to AI-based safety components of products such as surgical robots.¹⁶¹⁷³⁵

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-009

   The UN body for vehicle regulations adopted a global technical regulation and a UN regulation for automated driving systems on 24 June 2026, covering driverless systems built on a safety case.²²²³

3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010

   The UN General Assembly adopted resolution A/RES/80/57 on lethal autonomous weapons systems on 1 December 2025 by 164 votes to 6, with 7 abstentions.¹⁸¹⁹

2.5Minerals

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-011

   China imposed licensing on seven rare earth elements and magnets in April 2025, and Tesla said its humanoid robot programme was affected because arm actuators use permanent magnets.²¹⁴¹

2.6Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is humanoid pilots entering workplaces before a published safety standard exists, while magnet supply and labour effects are unmeasured. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Global Robot Demand in Factories Doubles Over 10 Years (World Robotics 2025 press release, Frankfurt, 25 September 2025; installations 542,000 in 2024; stock 4,664,000; forecast about 575,000 for 2025). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Robot Density Surges in Europe, Asia and Americas (press release, 8 April 2026; 2024 density: South Korea 1,220, Singapore 818, China 166, global average 132 robots per 10,000 employees). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 13Counterpoint Research (ed.), Global Humanoid Robot Installations Reach 16,000 Units in 2025 as Mass Production Picks Pace (release of 14 January 2026; China above 80%; the page does not describe the method). Analyst estimate, weak evidence. Counterpoint Research, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia estimate of humanoid shipments in 2025 (about 13,000 units, largest supplier about 5,168 units), taken from a search summary of a news report of 8 January 2026. Analyst estimate. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Unitree company claim of more than 5,500 humanoid robots shipped in 2025, taken from a search summary of a news report. Company claim, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 14Amazon (ed.), announcement of its one millionth robot and the DeepFleet coordination model (company page; more than 300 facilities; 10% travel-time improvement stated as a projection; the page gives no date, coverage places it in July 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. Amazon, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 4Waymo (ed.), Safety Impact hub (page read November 2026; 271.3 million rider-only miles through June 2026; about 95% fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes than a human benchmark). Company-reported analysis, weak evidence. Waymo, Mountain View. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 5Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (ed.), Waymo’s driverless cars crash less often than people (news release, 23 July 2026; about 50 million driverless miles, 2021 to 2024; 68% lower crash involvement; 81% fewer injury crashes per mile; four cities). IIHS, Arlington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 6Kusano, K.D. et al., Comparison of Waymo Rider-Only Crash Data to Human Benchmarks at 7.1 Million Miles, arXiv:2312.12675, submitted 20 December 2023, revised 24 October 2024 (authors employed by the operator). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 8Open X-Embodiment Collaboration, Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models, arXiv:2310.08864, submitted 13 October 2023, revised 14 May 2025 (22 robots, 21 institutions). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 11Octo Model Team, Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy, arXiv:2405.12213, submitted 20 May 2024 (800,000 trajectories from Open X-Embodiment; nine robot platforms). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 10Gemini Robotics Team, Gemini Robotics: Bringing AI into the Physical World, arXiv:2503.20020, submitted 25 March 2025 (company preprint; learning of short-horizon tasks from as few as 100 demonstrations). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 16European Commission (ed.), AI Act, regulatory framework page (entered into force 1 August 2024; high-risk dates revised by an omnibus in force 27 July 2026; AI-based safety components of products such as surgical robots treated as high-risk). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 June 2023 on machinery, Official Journal of the European Union; the official page returned no content, summary read through the EU-OSHA page. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 22Connected Automated Driving (ed.), UNECE adopts first-ever global rules allowing fully autonomous vehicles (page of 8 July 2026; adopted 24 June 2026; safety-case approach; about 90 existing UN regulations amended). Trade summary of a UN decision, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 23Bennett Jones (ed.), First Global Regulatory Framework For Autonomous Vehicles (law-firm blog, August 2026; GTR No. 26 and UN Regulation No. 185; SAE levels 3 to 5; legal status of each). Secondary legal commentary, weak evidence. Bennett Jones, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution A/RES/80/57, Lethal autonomous weapons systems, adopted 1 December 2025 (164 in favour, 6 against, 7 abstentions), vote record page. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 19International Committee of the Red Cross (ed.), ICRC position on autonomous weapon systems (Geneva, 12 May 2021; recommends prohibiting unpredictable systems and systems that target people, and regulating the rest). ICRC, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 21Adamas Intelligence (ed.), Musk on rare earth export restrictions: Optimus was affected (article of 24 April 2025; Tesla first-quarter 2025 earnings call; arm actuators use permanent magnets). Trade analysis reporting a company statement, weak evidence. Adamas Intelligence, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (ed.), announcement of export controls on seven rare earth elements and related magnets, April 2025, taken from a search summary. MOFCOM, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through robotics, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries robotics risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on robotics, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Robot Density Surges in Europe, Asia and Americas (press release, 8 April 2026; 2024 density: South Korea 1,220, Singapore 818, China 166, global average 132 robots per 10,000 employees). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8Open X-Embodiment Collaboration, Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models, arXiv:2310.08864, submitted 13 October 2023, revised 14 May 2025 (22 robots, 21 institutions). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 13Counterpoint Research (ed.), Global Humanoid Robot Installations Reach 16,000 Units in 2025 as Mass Production Picks Pace (release of 14 January 2026; China above 80%; the page does not describe the method). Analyst estimate, weak evidence. Counterpoint Research, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14Amazon (ed.), announcement of its one millionth robot and the DeepFleet coordination model (company page; more than 300 facilities; 10% travel-time improvement stated as a projection; the page gives no date, coverage places it in July 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. Amazon, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 4Waymo (ed.), Safety Impact hub (page read November 2026; 271.3 million rider-only miles through June 2026; about 95% fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes than a human benchmark). Company-reported analysis, weak evidence. Waymo, Mountain View. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 5Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (ed.), Waymo’s driverless cars crash less often than people (news release, 23 July 2026; about 50 million driverless miles, 2021 to 2024; 68% lower crash involvement; 81% fewer injury crashes per mile; four cities). IIHS, Arlington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 25UAV Coach (ed.), FAA Says Part 108 Is on the 10-Yard Line, but the BVLOS Rule Is Still Stuck at the White House (article of 16 September 2026; final rule sent to OIRA on 10 July 2026; FAA hopes to publish before the end of 2026). Trade press, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 10218-1:2025 Robots and robotic devices, safety requirements for industrial robots, Part 1 (third edition, published 5 February 2025), taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 22Connected Automated Driving (ed.), UNECE adopts first-ever global rules allowing fully autonomous vehicles (page of 8 July 2026; adopted 24 June 2026; safety-case approach; about 90 existing UN regulations amended). Trade summary of a UN decision, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 7Brohan, A. et al., RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control, arXiv:2307.15818, submitted 28 July 2023 (company authors; 6,000 evaluation trials). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 9Black, K. et al., pi0: A Vision-Language-Action Flow Model for General Robot Control, arXiv:2410.24164, submitted 31 October 2024, revised 8 January 2026 (company preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 10Gemini Robotics Team, Gemini Robotics: Bringing AI into the Physical World, arXiv:2503.20020, submitted 25 March 2025 (company preprint; learning of short-horizon tasks from as few as 100 demonstrations). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 11Octo Model Team, Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy, arXiv:2405.12213, submitted 20 May 2024 (800,000 trajectories from Open X-Embodiment; nine robot platforms). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT03-GOV-001

   Rules lag deployment

   Driver

   humanoid and mobile platforms entering workplaces ahead of finished standards¹⁵³²

   Exposure

   workers in factories and warehouses; the public near driverless vehicles

   Vulnerability

   draft standards; rules that differ between jurisdictions

   Capacity

   machinery rules, vehicle regulation and robot safety standards¹⁷²²³¹

   Cascade

   GOV → INF, FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

2. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT03-MIN-002

   Magnet and actuator supply chokepoint

   Driver

   export licensing on rare earth elements and magnets²¹⁴¹

   Exposure

   actuator makers; humanoid and legged platforms

   Vulnerability

   few suppliers; concentrated processing³⁹⁴⁰

   Capacity

   alternative motor designs; stocks; recycling

   Cascade

   MIN → INF

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

3. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-XT03-INF-003

   Thin field safety evidence

   Driver

   one study of road vehicles and no consolidated data elsewhere⁵³⁰

   Exposure

   planners who treat company statistics as settled

   Vulnerability

   incident reporting that differs by sector

   Capacity

   federal crash reporting and independent studies⁵³⁰

   Cascade

   INF → DAT → GOV

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4. InferredEQL 2RSK-XT03-FIN-004

   Local labour adjustment

   Driver

   rising fleets in concentrated markets¹²⁰

   Exposure

   workers in routine manufacturing and logistics roles

   Vulnerability

   regions with one dominant employer or sector

   Capacity

   skills programmes; social protection; none bound here

   Cascade

   FIN → HLT, DAT

   Horizon

   5 to 10 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for robotics at the global level.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 15Engadget (ed.), Boston Dynamics unveils production-ready version of Atlas robot at CES 2026 (report of 8 January 2026; first customers Hyundai and Google DeepMind; Hyundai plans car-plant use from 2028). Trade press reporting a company plan, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 25785-1, safety requirements for industrial mobile robots with actively controlled stability, Part 1: Robots, committee draft in preparation, taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 22Connected Automated Driving (ed.), UNECE adopts first-ever global rules allowing fully autonomous vehicles (page of 8 July 2026; adopted 24 June 2026; safety-case approach; about 90 existing UN regulations amended). Trade summary of a UN decision, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 10218-1:2025 Robots and robotic devices, safety requirements for industrial robots, Part 1 (third edition, published 5 February 2025), taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 21Adamas Intelligence (ed.), Musk on rare earth export restrictions: Optimus was affected (article of 24 April 2025; Tesla first-quarter 2025 earnings call; arm actuators use permanent magnets). Trade analysis reporting a company statement, weak evidence. Adamas Intelligence, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (ed.), announcement of export controls on seven rare earth elements and related magnets, April 2025, taken from a search summary. MOFCOM, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, the page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, rare earths, the file returned an access error; no figure used. USGS, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 5Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (ed.), Waymo’s driverless cars crash less often than people (news release, 23 July 2026; about 50 million driverless miles, 2021 to 2024; 68% lower crash involvement; 81% fewer injury crashes per mile; four cities). IIHS, Arlington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (ed.), Standing General Order 2021-01 on crash reporting, Third Amended order of 24 April 2025, taken from a search summary; the agency page returned an access error. NHTSA, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 20Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P., Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets, NBER Working Paper 23285, March 2017 (US adoption 1990 to 2007). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 June 2023 on machinery, Official Journal of the European Union; the official page returned no content, summary read through the EU-OSHA page. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 16European Commission (ed.), AI Act, regulatory framework page (entered into force 1 August 2024; high-risk dates revised by an omnibus in force 27 July 2026; AI-based safety components of products such as surgical robots treated as high-risk). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 of the European Parliament and of the Council laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; summary read through the Commission page. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 4Waymo (ed.), Safety Impact hub (page read November 2026; 271.3 million rider-only miles through June 2026; about 95% fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes than a human benchmark). Company-reported analysis, weak evidence. Waymo, Mountain View. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 7Brohan, A. et al., RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control, arXiv:2307.15818, submitted 28 July 2023 (company authors; 6,000 evaluation trials). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 8Open X-Embodiment Collaboration, Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models, arXiv:2310.08864, submitted 13 October 2023, revised 14 May 2025 (22 robots, 21 institutions). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 9Black, K. et al., pi0: A Vision-Language-Action Flow Model for General Robot Control, arXiv:2410.24164, submitted 31 October 2024, revised 8 January 2026 (company preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 10Gemini Robotics Team, Gemini Robotics: Bringing AI into the Physical World, arXiv:2503.20020, submitted 25 March 2025 (company preprint; learning of short-horizon tasks from as few as 100 demonstrations). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 11Octo Model Team, Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy, arXiv:2405.12213, submitted 20 May 2024 (800,000 trajectories from Open X-Embodiment; nine robot platforms). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 12Li, C. et al., BEHAVIOR-1K: A Human-Centered, Embodied AI Benchmark with 1,000 Everyday Activities and Realistic Simulation, arXiv:2403.09227, submitted 14 March 2024 (abstract page; 1,000 activities, 50 scenes). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT03-HUM-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

humanoid platforms enter workplaces for pilot tasks while the draft standard for dynamically stable robots is not published

Analogues

company plans for deployment from 2028; the 2025 magnet licensing episode¹⁵²¹

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   INF → GOV

   pilots begin under general machinery rules

   2026

2. 2

   MIN → INF

   actuator supply tightens as magnet licences slow

   2025

3. 3

   GOV → INF

   a draft standard is finished and operators adapt

   2026

4. 4

   INF → DAT

   incident records differ by site and operator

   2026

5. 5

   INF → FIN

   local labour effects appear in pilot regions

   2026

6. 6

   FIN → GOV

   regulators ask for common reporting

   2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT03-HUM-01 would travel through Robotics and Autonomous Systems‘s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Robotics and Autonomous Systems 2026, scenario SCN-XT03-HUM-01 (2026); Robotics and Autonomous Systems 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 15Engadget (ed.), Boston Dynamics unveils production-ready version of Atlas robot at CES 2026 (report of 8 January 2026; first customers Hyundai and Google DeepMind; Hyundai plans car-plant use from 2028). Trade press reporting a company plan, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 21Adamas Intelligence (ed.), Musk on rare earth export restrictions: Optimus was affected (article of 24 April 2025; Tesla first-quarter 2025 earnings call; arm actuators use permanent magnets). Trade analysis reporting a company statement, weak evidence. Adamas Intelligence, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for robotics. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 robotics readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• PUBLISHED
• DRAFT
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers robotics assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about robotics and autonomous systems as infrastructure and its couplings?

Sources searched

preprints and journals; industry federation and agencies; standards and regulations; supply and labour analyses

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 20Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P., Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets, NBER Working Paper 23285, March 2017 (US adoption 1990 to 2007). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 10218-1:2025 Robots and robotic devices, safety requirements for industrial robots, Part 1 (third edition, published 5 February 2025), taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 13482:2014 Robots and robotic devices, safety requirements for personal care robots, cited from memory. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 3691-4 Industrial trucks, safety requirements and verification, Part 4: Driverless industrial trucks and their systems, cited from memory. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 25785-1, safety requirements for industrial mobile robots with actively controlled stability, Part 1: Robots, committee draft in preparation, taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 June 2023 on machinery, Official Journal of the European Union; the official page returned no content, summary read through the EU-OSHA page. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 16European Commission (ed.), AI Act, regulatory framework page (entered into force 1 August 2024; high-risk dates revised by an omnibus in force 27 July 2026; AI-based safety components of products such as surgical robots treated as high-risk). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 of the European Parliament and of the Council laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; summary read through the Commission page. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 22Connected Automated Driving (ed.), UNECE adopts first-ever global rules allowing fully autonomous vehicles (page of 8 July 2026; adopted 24 June 2026; safety-case approach; about 90 existing UN regulations amended). Trade summary of a UN decision, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 23Bennett Jones (ed.), First Global Regulatory Framework For Autonomous Vehicles (law-firm blog, August 2026; GTR No. 26 and UN Regulation No. 185; SAE levels 3 to 5; legal status of each). Secondary legal commentary, weak evidence. Bennett Jones, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (ed.), Standing General Order 2021-01 on crash reporting, Third Amended order of 24 April 2025, taken from a search summary; the agency page returned an access error. NHTSA, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 24Lawfare (ed.), Defense Department Updates Autonomous Weapons Systems Directive (article of 27 January 2023; directive reissued effective 25 January 2023; working group established; criteria not changed). Lawfare Institute, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Defense (ed.), Directive 3000.09, Autonomy in Weapon Systems, 25 January 2023, text returned an access error; summary read through a news article. DoD, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 25UAV Coach (ed.), FAA Says Part 108 Is on the 10-Yard Line, but the BVLOS Rule Is Still Stuck at the White House (article of 16 September 2026; final rule sent to OIRA on 10 July 2026; FAA hopes to publish before the end of 2026). Trade press, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal Aviation Administration (ed.), Normal Category Rulemaking for Beyond Visual Line of Sight, notice of proposed rulemaking (Part 108), August 2025, taken from a search summary of a law-firm note. FAA, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 7Brohan, A. et al., RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control, arXiv:2307.15818, submitted 28 July 2023 (company authors; 6,000 evaluation trials). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 8Open X-Embodiment Collaboration, Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models, arXiv:2310.08864, submitted 13 October 2023, revised 14 May 2025 (22 robots, 21 institutions). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 9Black, K. et al., pi0: A Vision-Language-Action Flow Model for General Robot Control, arXiv:2410.24164, submitted 31 October 2024, revised 8 January 2026 (company preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 10Gemini Robotics Team, Gemini Robotics: Bringing AI into the Physical World, arXiv:2503.20020, submitted 25 March 2025 (company preprint; learning of short-horizon tasks from as few as 100 demonstrations). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 11Octo Model Team, Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy, arXiv:2405.12213, submitted 20 May 2024 (800,000 trajectories from Open X-Embodiment; nine robot platforms). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 12Li, C. et al., BEHAVIOR-1K: A Human-Centered, Embodied AI Benchmark with 1,000 Everyday Activities and Realistic Simulation, arXiv:2403.09227, submitted 14 March 2024 (abstract page; 1,000 activities, 50 scenes). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 6Kusano, K.D. et al., Comparison of Waymo Rider-Only Crash Data to Human Benchmarks at 7.1 Million Miles, arXiv:2312.12675, submitted 20 December 2023, revised 24 October 2024 (authors employed by the operator). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Autor, D.H., Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation, Journal of Economic Perspectives 29(3), 3 to 30, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Frey, C.B. and Osborne, M.A., The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114, 254 to 280, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 2International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Global Robot Demand in Factories Doubles Over 10 Years (World Robotics 2025 press release, Frankfurt, 25 September 2025; installations 542,000 in 2024; stock 4,664,000; forecast about 575,000 for 2025). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 3International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Robot Density Surges in Europe, Asia and Americas (press release, 8 April 2026; 2024 density: South Korea 1,220, Singapore 818, China 166, global average 132 robots per 10,000 employees). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 5Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (ed.), Waymo’s driverless cars crash less often than people (news release, 23 July 2026; about 50 million driverless miles, 2021 to 2024; 68% lower crash involvement; 81% fewer injury crashes per mile; four cities). IIHS, Arlington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 13Counterpoint Research (ed.), Global Humanoid Robot Installations Reach 16,000 Units in 2025 as Mass Production Picks Pace (release of 14 January 2026; China above 80%; the page does not describe the method). Analyst estimate, weak evidence. Counterpoint Research, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 14Amazon (ed.), announcement of its one millionth robot and the DeepFleet coordination model (company page; more than 300 facilities; 10% travel-time improvement stated as a projection; the page gives no date, coverage places it in July 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. Amazon, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 15Engadget (ed.), Boston Dynamics unveils production-ready version of Atlas robot at CES 2026 (report of 8 January 2026; first customers Hyundai and Google DeepMind; Hyundai plans car-plant use from 2028). Trade press reporting a company plan, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 21Adamas Intelligence (ed.), Musk on rare earth export restrictions: Optimus was affected (article of 24 April 2025; Tesla first-quarter 2025 earnings call; arm actuators use permanent magnets). Trade analysis reporting a company statement, weak evidence. Adamas Intelligence, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 26Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), 2026 AI Index Report, summary page (chapter on technical performance covers robotics; the page gave no robotics figures). Stanford HAI, Stanford. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia estimate of humanoid shipments in 2025 (about 13,000 units, largest supplier about 5,168 units), taken from a search summary of a news report of 8 January 2026. Analyst estimate. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Unitree company claim of more than 5,500 humanoid robots shipped in 2025, taken from a search summary of a news report. Company claim, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 4Waymo (ed.), Safety Impact hub (page read November 2026; 271.3 million rider-only miles through June 2026; about 95% fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes than a human benchmark). Company-reported analysis, weak evidence. Waymo, Mountain View. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. R-01

   What field safety and incident data exist for robots outside road vehicles, and can they be compared?

   INI-XT03-SAF-01 · field safety evidence; first output: incident data map.

2. R-02

   How exposed are robot actuators to rare earth magnet supply, and which platforms use alternatives?

   INI-XT03-MAG-02 · magnet and actuator supply; first output: dependence map.

3. R-03

   Where are humanoid robots deployed in workplaces, under which safety rules?

   INI-XT03-HUM-03 · humanoid deployment register; first output: deployment register.

4. R-04

   What do recent studies show about robot adoption and local employment and wages?

   INI-XT03-LAB-04 · workforce evidence; first output: evidence review.

5. R-05

   How can learned-control claims be compared on a common basis?

   INI-XT03-BMK-05 · claims on a common basis; first output: benchmark table.

6. R-06

   Which national rules set safety duties for autonomous machines, and how do they differ?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: rule overlay.

7. R-07

   What energy and battery demand do robot fleets place on facilities and grids?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. R-08

   Which readiness capabilities have been tested with real robot incidents, and which are only planned?

   Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 robotics portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The robotics edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, minerals and infrastructure, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National readiness chapters

   robot adoption and safety readiness in each national edition

   IN PREPARATION · national baselines

2. 02

   Sector couplings

   GS-02 energy · GS-09 infrastructure · SR-04 minerals

   GS-02 DRAFTED · sector baselines

3. 03

   Technology system model

   fleets, learned control, actuators, workforce, governance

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Strategic links

   SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   XT-03 report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the robotics candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-XT03-2027-01 · Humanoid pilot Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 21Adamas Intelligence (ed.), Musk on rare earth export restrictions: Optimus was affected (article of 24 April 2025; Tesla first-quarter 2025 earnings call; arm actuators use permanent magnets). Trade analysis reporting a company statement, weak evidence. Adamas Intelligence, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 14Amazon (ed.), announcement of its one millionth robot and the DeepFleet coordination model (company page; more than 300 facilities; 10% travel-time improvement stated as a projection; the page gives no date, coverage places it in July 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. Amazon, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Fleets, platforms and learned control

Industrial robots are an established fleet. Humanoid and learned-control platforms are new, and evidence for them rests on preprints, analyst estimates and company statements.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
• XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage

8.2Energy, batteries and compute at the edge

Robot fleets draw power and need batteries and onboard computing. No figure for energy use or battery supply was found in the sources read.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
• XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage

8.3Actuators, magnets and supply chain

Compact high-torque actuators depend on permanent magnets. Export licensing on rare earth elements and magnets from April 2025 affected one humanoid programme, according to its company.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
• XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage

8.4Economy, labour and workforce

Fleet statistics are strong and labour evidence is old. The labour study read covers US adoption from 1990 to 2007.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
• XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage

8.5Safety, rules and governance watch

Rules for robots are arriving unevenly. Machinery and vehicle rules are being set in 2026 and 2027, standards for legged robots are in draft, and the UN has voted on autonomous weapons.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
• XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 8Open X-Embodiment Collaboration, Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models, arXiv:2310.08864, submitted 13 October 2023, revised 14 May 2025 (22 robots, 21 institutions). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Global Robot Demand in Factories Doubles Over 10 Years (World Robotics 2025 press release, Frankfurt, 25 September 2025; installations 542,000 in 2024; stock 4,664,000; forecast about 575,000 for 2025). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 7Brohan, A. et al., RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control, arXiv:2307.15818, submitted 28 July 2023 (company authors; 6,000 evaluation trials). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 9Black, K. et al., pi0: A Vision-Language-Action Flow Model for General Robot Control, arXiv:2410.24164, submitted 31 October 2024, revised 8 January 2026 (company preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10Gemini Robotics Team, Gemini Robotics: Bringing AI into the Physical World, arXiv:2503.20020, submitted 25 March 2025 (company preprint; learning of short-horizon tasks from as few as 100 demonstrations). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 11Octo Model Team, Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy, arXiv:2405.12213, submitted 20 May 2024 (800,000 trajectories from Open X-Embodiment; nine robot platforms). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 12Li, C. et al., BEHAVIOR-1K: A Human-Centered, Embodied AI Benchmark with 1,000 Everyday Activities and Realistic Simulation, arXiv:2403.09227, submitted 14 March 2024 (abstract page; 1,000 activities, 50 scenes). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 26Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), 2026 AI Index Report, summary page (chapter on technical performance covers robotics; the page gave no robotics figures). Stanford HAI, Stanford. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 13Counterpoint Research (ed.), Global Humanoid Robot Installations Reach 16,000 Units in 2025 as Mass Production Picks Pace (release of 14 January 2026; China above 80%; the page does not describe the method). Analyst estimate, weak evidence. Counterpoint Research, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 15Engadget (ed.), Boston Dynamics unveils production-ready version of Atlas robot at CES 2026 (report of 8 January 2026; first customers Hyundai and Google DeepMind; Hyundai plans car-plant use from 2028). Trade press reporting a company plan, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia estimate of humanoid shipments in 2025 (about 13,000 units, largest supplier about 5,168 units), taken from a search summary of a news report of 8 January 2026. Analyst estimate. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Unitree company claim of more than 5,500 humanoid robots shipped in 2025, taken from a search summary of a news report. Company claim, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 14Amazon (ed.), announcement of its one millionth robot and the DeepFleet coordination model (company page; more than 300 facilities; 10% travel-time improvement stated as a projection; the page gives no date, coverage places it in July 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. Amazon, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 21Adamas Intelligence (ed.), Musk on rare earth export restrictions: Optimus was affected (article of 24 April 2025; Tesla first-quarter 2025 earnings call; arm actuators use permanent magnets). Trade analysis reporting a company statement, weak evidence. Adamas Intelligence, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (ed.), announcement of export controls on seven rare earth elements and related magnets, April 2025, taken from a search summary. MOFCOM, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, the page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, rare earths, the file returned an access error; no figure used. USGS, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 20Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P., Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets, NBER Working Paper 23285, March 2017 (US adoption 1990 to 2007). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Autor, D.H., Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation, Journal of Economic Perspectives 29(3), 3 to 30, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Frey, C.B. and Osborne, M.A., The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114, 254 to 280, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Intuitive Surgical, Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 (da Vinci procedure growth and installed base), taken from a search summary; the filing was fetched but the section was not read. Intuitive Surgical, Sunnyvale. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 22Connected Automated Driving (ed.), UNECE adopts first-ever global rules allowing fully autonomous vehicles (page of 8 July 2026; adopted 24 June 2026; safety-case approach; about 90 existing UN regulations amended). Trade summary of a UN decision, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution A/RES/80/57, Lethal autonomous weapons systems, adopted 1 December 2025 (164 in favour, 6 against, 7 abstentions), vote record page. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 June 2023 on machinery, Official Journal of the European Union; the official page returned no content, summary read through the EU-OSHA page. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 16European Commission (ed.), AI Act, regulatory framework page (entered into force 1 August 2024; high-risk dates revised by an omnibus in force 27 July 2026; AI-based safety components of products such as surgical robots treated as high-risk). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 of the European Parliament and of the Council laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; summary read through the Commission page. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 23Bennett Jones (ed.), First Global Regulatory Framework For Autonomous Vehicles (law-firm blog, August 2026; GTR No. 26 and UN Regulation No. 185; SAE levels 3 to 5; legal status of each). Secondary legal commentary, weak evidence. Bennett Jones, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (ed.), Standing General Order 2021-01 on crash reporting, Third Amended order of 24 April 2025, taken from a search summary; the agency page returned an access error. NHTSA, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 19International Committee of the Red Cross (ed.), ICRC position on autonomous weapon systems (Geneva, 12 May 2021; recommends prohibiting unpredictable systems and systems that target people, and regulating the rest). ICRC, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 24Lawfare (ed.), Defense Department Updates Autonomous Weapons Systems Directive (article of 27 January 2023; directive reissued effective 25 January 2023; working group established; criteria not changed). Lawfare Institute, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 25UAV Coach (ed.), FAA Says Part 108 Is on the 10-Yard Line, but the BVLOS Rule Is Still Stuck at the White House (article of 16 September 2026; final rule sent to OIRA on 10 July 2026; FAA hopes to publish before the end of 2026). Trade press, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Defense (ed.), Directive 3000.09, Autonomy in Weapon Systems, 25 January 2023, text returned an access error; summary read through a news article. DoD, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Robotics System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-XT03-ROBOTICS · v0.1

Purpose

represent robots and autonomous systems as infrastructure coupled to energy, magnets and minerals, finance, workforce, safety rules and security

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

46 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 robotics annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• International Federation of Robotics¹: exact totals and the service robot series
• Waymo⁴: independent audit of mileage and crash counts
• European Union³⁵: official text of the Machinery Regulation
• UNECE²²: text of the global technical regulation

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: robot density

Construct

number of operating industrial robots per 10,000 persons employed in manufacturing

Unit

robots per 10,000 employees

Method

federation count of operational stock divided by manufacturing employment

Source

IFR release of 8 April 2026³

Uncertainty

not stated on the page read

Known limits

manufacturing only; employment definitions differ between countries

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, the page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, rare earths, the file returned an access error; no figure used. USGS, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 13Counterpoint Research (ed.), Global Humanoid Robot Installations Reach 16,000 Units in 2025 as Mass Production Picks Pace (release of 14 January 2026; China above 80%; the page does not describe the method). Analyst estimate, weak evidence. Counterpoint Research, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia estimate of humanoid shipments in 2025 (about 13,000 units, largest supplier about 5,168 units), taken from a search summary of a news report of 8 January 2026. Analyst estimate. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Unitree company claim of more than 5,500 humanoid robots shipped in 2025, taken from a search summary of a news report. Company claim, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Global Sales of Professional Service Robots Surge 24% (press release, 2026), only the headline was seen on another page. International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Top 5 Global Robotics Trends 2026, the page returned an access error; no figure used. International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Intuitive Surgical, Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 (da Vinci procedure growth and installed base), taken from a search summary; the filing was fetched but the section was not read. Intuitive Surgical, Sunnyvale. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (ed.), Standing General Order 2021-01 on crash reporting, Third Amended order of 24 April 2025, taken from a search summary; the agency page returned an access error. NHTSA, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 10218-1:2025 Robots and robotic devices, safety requirements for industrial robots, Part 1 (third edition, published 5 February 2025), taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 25785-1, safety requirements for industrial mobile robots with actively controlled stability, Part 1: Robots, committee draft in preparation, taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 June 2023 on machinery, Official Journal of the European Union; the official page returned no content, summary read through the EU-OSHA page. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 22Connected Automated Driving (ed.), UNECE adopts first-ever global rules allowing fully autonomous vehicles (page of 8 July 2026; adopted 24 June 2026; safety-case approach; about 90 existing UN regulations amended). Trade summary of a UN decision, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 25UAV Coach (ed.), FAA Says Part 108 Is on the 10-Yard Line, but the BVLOS Rule Is Still Stuck at the White House (article of 16 September 2026; final rule sent to OIRA on 10 July 2026; FAA hopes to publish before the end of 2026). Trade press, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal Aviation Administration (ed.), Normal Category Rulemaking for Beyond Visual Line of Sight, notice of proposed rulemaking (Part 108), August 2025, taken from a search summary of a law-firm note. FAA, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 15Engadget (ed.), Boston Dynamics unveils production-ready version of Atlas robot at CES 2026 (report of 8 January 2026; first customers Hyundai and Google DeepMind; Hyundai plans car-plant use from 2028). Trade press reporting a company plan, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hyundai Motor Group plan to build up to 30,000 robots a year by 2028, taken from a search summary of an Axios report of 5 January 2026; the page returned an access error. Company plan, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 20Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P., Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets, NBER Working Paper 23285, March 2017 (US adoption 1990 to 2007). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 5Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (ed.), Waymo’s driverless cars crash less often than people (news release, 23 July 2026; about 50 million driverless miles, 2021 to 2024; 68% lower crash involvement; 81% fewer injury crashes per mile; four cities). IIHS, Arlington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 4Waymo (ed.), Safety Impact hub (page read November 2026; 271.3 million rider-only miles through June 2026; about 95% fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes than a human benchmark). Company-reported analysis, weak evidence. Waymo, Mountain View. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 3International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Robot Density Surges in Europe, Asia and Americas (press release, 8 April 2026; 2024 density: South Korea 1,220, Singapore 818, China 166, global average 132 robots per 10,000 employees). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• INF
• AIC
• TRD
• MIN
• GOV
• FIN
• DAT
• ENE
• HLT
• WAT

B.3Regional reading, robotics across ten clusters

Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of robot infrastructure and exposure in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Cluster card: actuator and magnet supply chain

• supply chain
• actuators
• rare earth magnets
• single point

Systems in view

actuators, motors, humanoid and legged platforms

Defining events

rare earth export licensing from April 2025²¹

Couplings

MIN → INF magnets; TRD → MIN export controls

Capability evidence

alternative designs mentioned in trade press; none documented at scale here

Gaps

magnet volumes by platform; stocks; alternatives

Agenda items

R-02 · R-03

B.5How countries appear in the robotics edition

Countries enter the robotics edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Global Robot Demand in Factories Doubles Over 10 Years (World Robotics 2025 press release, Frankfurt, 25 September 2025; installations 542,000 in 2024; stock 4,664,000; forecast about 575,000 for 2025). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Robot Density Surges in Europe, Asia and Americas (press release, 8 April 2026; 2024 density: South Korea 1,220, Singapore 818, China 166, global average 132 robots per 10,000 employees). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 8Open X-Embodiment Collaboration, Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models, arXiv:2310.08864, submitted 13 October 2023, revised 14 May 2025 (22 robots, 21 institutions). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 13Counterpoint Research (ed.), Global Humanoid Robot Installations Reach 16,000 Units in 2025 as Mass Production Picks Pace (release of 14 January 2026; China above 80%; the page does not describe the method). Analyst estimate, weak evidence. Counterpoint Research, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 14Amazon (ed.), announcement of its one millionth robot and the DeepFleet coordination model (company page; more than 300 facilities; 10% travel-time improvement stated as a projection; the page gives no date, coverage places it in July 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. Amazon, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 5Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (ed.), Waymo’s driverless cars crash less often than people (news release, 23 July 2026; about 50 million driverless miles, 2021 to 2024; 68% lower crash involvement; 81% fewer injury crashes per mile; four cities). IIHS, Arlington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution A/RES/80/57, Lethal autonomous weapons systems, adopted 1 December 2025 (164 in favour, 6 against, 7 abstentions), vote record page. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 4Waymo (ed.), Safety Impact hub (page read November 2026; 271.3 million rider-only miles through June 2026; about 95% fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes than a human benchmark). Company-reported analysis, weak evidence. Waymo, Mountain View. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 20Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P., Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets, NBER Working Paper 23285, March 2017 (US adoption 1990 to 2007). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 16European Commission (ed.), AI Act, regulatory framework page (entered into force 1 August 2024; high-risk dates revised by an omnibus in force 27 July 2026; AI-based safety components of products such as surgical robots treated as high-risk). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 21Adamas Intelligence (ed.), Musk on rare earth export restrictions: Optimus was affected (article of 24 April 2025; Tesla first-quarter 2025 earnings call; arm actuators use permanent magnets). Trade analysis reporting a company statement, weak evidence. Adamas Intelligence, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.146 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
2. 2International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Global Robot Demand in Factories Doubles Over 10 Years (World Robotics 2025 press release, Frankfurt, 25 September 2025; installations 542,000 in 2024; stock 4,664,000; forecast about 575,000 for 2025). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Robot Density Surges in Europe, Asia and Americas (press release, 8 April 2026; 2024 density: South Korea 1,220, Singapore 818, China 166, global average 132 robots per 10,000 employees). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
4. 4Waymo (ed.), Safety Impact hub (page read November 2026; 271.3 million rider-only miles through June 2026; about 95% fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes than a human benchmark). Company-reported analysis, weak evidence. Waymo, Mountain View. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
5. 5Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (ed.), Waymo’s driverless cars crash less often than people (news release, 23 July 2026; about 50 million driverless miles, 2021 to 2024; 68% lower crash involvement; 81% fewer injury crashes per mile; four cities). IIHS, Arlington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
6. 6Kusano, K.D. et al., Comparison of Waymo Rider-Only Crash Data to Human Benchmarks at 7.1 Million Miles, arXiv:2312.12675, submitted 20 December 2023, revised 24 October 2024 (authors employed by the operator). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
7. 7Brohan, A. et al., RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control, arXiv:2307.15818, submitted 28 July 2023 (company authors; 6,000 evaluation trials). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8Open X-Embodiment Collaboration, Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models, arXiv:2310.08864, submitted 13 October 2023, revised 14 May 2025 (22 robots, 21 institutions). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9Black, K. et al., pi0: A Vision-Language-Action Flow Model for General Robot Control, arXiv:2410.24164, submitted 31 October 2024, revised 8 January 2026 (company preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
10. 10Gemini Robotics Team, Gemini Robotics: Bringing AI into the Physical World, arXiv:2503.20020, submitted 25 March 2025 (company preprint; learning of short-horizon tasks from as few as 100 demonstrations). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11Octo Model Team, Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy, arXiv:2405.12213, submitted 20 May 2024 (800,000 trajectories from Open X-Embodiment; nine robot platforms). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12Li, C. et al., BEHAVIOR-1K: A Human-Centered, Embodied AI Benchmark with 1,000 Everyday Activities and Realistic Simulation, arXiv:2403.09227, submitted 14 March 2024 (abstract page; 1,000 activities, 50 scenes). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13Counterpoint Research (ed.), Global Humanoid Robot Installations Reach 16,000 Units in 2025 as Mass Production Picks Pace (release of 14 January 2026; China above 80%; the page does not describe the method). Analyst estimate, weak evidence. Counterpoint Research, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 14Amazon (ed.), announcement of its one millionth robot and the DeepFleet coordination model (company page; more than 300 facilities; 10% travel-time improvement stated as a projection; the page gives no date, coverage places it in July 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. Amazon, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
15. 15Engadget (ed.), Boston Dynamics unveils production-ready version of Atlas robot at CES 2026 (report of 8 January 2026; first customers Hyundai and Google DeepMind; Hyundai plans car-plant use from 2028). Trade press reporting a company plan, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16European Commission (ed.), AI Act, regulatory framework page (entered into force 1 August 2024; high-risk dates revised by an omnibus in force 27 July 2026; AI-based safety components of products such as surgical robots treated as high-risk). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
17. 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution A/RES/80/57, Lethal autonomous weapons systems, adopted 1 December 2025 (164 in favour, 6 against, 7 abstentions), vote record page. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
19. 19International Committee of the Red Cross (ed.), ICRC position on autonomous weapon systems (Geneva, 12 May 2021; recommends prohibiting unpredictable systems and systems that target people, and regulating the rest). ICRC, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
20. 20Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P., Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets, NBER Working Paper 23285, March 2017 (US adoption 1990 to 2007). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21Adamas Intelligence (ed.), Musk on rare earth export restrictions: Optimus was affected (article of 24 April 2025; Tesla first-quarter 2025 earnings call; arm actuators use permanent magnets). Trade analysis reporting a company statement, weak evidence. Adamas Intelligence, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
22. 22Connected Automated Driving (ed.), UNECE adopts first-ever global rules allowing fully autonomous vehicles (page of 8 July 2026; adopted 24 June 2026; safety-case approach; about 90 existing UN regulations amended). Trade summary of a UN decision, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
23. 23Bennett Jones (ed.), First Global Regulatory Framework For Autonomous Vehicles (law-firm blog, August 2026; GTR No. 26 and UN Regulation No. 185; SAE levels 3 to 5; legal status of each). Secondary legal commentary, weak evidence. Bennett Jones, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
24. 24Lawfare (ed.), Defense Department Updates Autonomous Weapons Systems Directive (article of 27 January 2023; directive reissued effective 25 January 2023; working group established; criteria not changed). Lawfare Institute, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
25. 25UAV Coach (ed.), FAA Says Part 108 Is on the 10-Yard Line, but the BVLOS Rule Is Still Stuck at the White House (article of 16 September 2026; final rule sent to OIRA on 10 July 2026; FAA hopes to publish before the end of 2026). Trade press, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
26. 26Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), 2026 AI Index Report, summary page (chapter on technical performance covers robotics; the page gave no robotics figures). Stanford HAI, Stanford. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia estimate of humanoid shipments in 2025 (about 13,000 units, largest supplier about 5,168 units), taken from a search summary of a news report of 8 January 2026. Analyst estimate. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Unitree company claim of more than 5,500 humanoid robots shipped in 2025, taken from a search summary of a news report. Company claim, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Intuitive Surgical, Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 (da Vinci procedure growth and installed base), taken from a search summary; the filing was fetched but the section was not read. Intuitive Surgical, Sunnyvale. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (ed.), Standing General Order 2021-01 on crash reporting, Third Amended order of 24 April 2025, taken from a search summary; the agency page returned an access error. NHTSA, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 10218-1:2025 Robots and robotic devices, safety requirements for industrial robots, Part 1 (third edition, published 5 February 2025), taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 25785-1, safety requirements for industrial mobile robots with actively controlled stability, Part 1: Robots, committee draft in preparation, taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 13482:2014 Robots and robotic devices, safety requirements for personal care robots, cited from memory. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 3691-4 Industrial trucks, safety requirements and verification, Part 4: Driverless industrial trucks and their systems, cited from memory. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 June 2023 on machinery, Official Journal of the European Union; the official page returned no content, summary read through the EU-OSHA page. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 of the European Parliament and of the Council laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; summary read through the Commission page. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal Aviation Administration (ed.), Normal Category Rulemaking for Beyond Visual Line of Sight, notice of proposed rulemaking (Part 108), August 2025, taken from a search summary of a law-firm note. FAA, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Defense (ed.), Directive 3000.09, Autonomy in Weapon Systems, 25 January 2023, text returned an access error; summary read through a news article. DoD, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, the page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, rare earths, the file returned an access error; no figure used. USGS, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (ed.), announcement of export controls on seven rare earth elements and related magnets, April 2025, taken from a search summary. MOFCOM, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 8
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Global Sales of Professional Service Robots Surge 24% (press release, 2026), only the headline was seen on another page. International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Autor, D.H., Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation, Journal of Economic Perspectives 29(3), 3 to 30, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Frey, C.B. and Osborne, M.A., The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114, 254 to 280, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hyundai Motor Group plan to build up to 30,000 robots a year by 2028, taken from a search summary of an Axios report of 5 January 2026; the page returned an access error. Company plan, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Top 5 Global Robotics Trends 2026, the page returned an access error; no figure used. International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version