Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Robots are infrastructure and a test of institutions
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Humanoid pilots meet a missing safety standard
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 46 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.146 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  2. 2International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Global Robot Demand in Factories Doubles Over 10 Years (World Robotics 2025 press release, Frankfurt, 25 September 2025; installations 542,000 in 2024; stock 4,664,000; forecast about 575,000 for 2025). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Robot Density Surges in Europe, Asia and Americas (press release, 8 April 2026; 2024 density: South Korea 1,220, Singapore 818, China 166, global average 132 robots per 10,000 employees). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  4. 4Waymo (ed.), Safety Impact hub (page read November 2026; 271.3 million rider-only miles through June 2026; about 95% fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes than a human benchmark). Company-reported analysis, weak evidence. Waymo, Mountain View. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  5. 5Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (ed.), Waymo’s driverless cars crash less often than people (news release, 23 July 2026; about 50 million driverless miles, 2021 to 2024; 68% lower crash involvement; 81% fewer injury crashes per mile; four cities). IIHS, Arlington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  6. 6Kusano, K.D. et al., Comparison of Waymo Rider-Only Crash Data to Human Benchmarks at 7.1 Million Miles, arXiv:2312.12675, submitted 20 December 2023, revised 24 October 2024 (authors employed by the operator). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  7. 7Brohan, A. et al., RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control, arXiv:2307.15818, submitted 28 July 2023 (company authors; 6,000 evaluation trials). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8Open X-Embodiment Collaboration, Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models, arXiv:2310.08864, submitted 13 October 2023, revised 14 May 2025 (22 robots, 21 institutions). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9Black, K. et al., pi0: A Vision-Language-Action Flow Model for General Robot Control, arXiv:2410.24164, submitted 31 October 2024, revised 8 January 2026 (company preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10Gemini Robotics Team, Gemini Robotics: Bringing AI into the Physical World, arXiv:2503.20020, submitted 25 March 2025 (company preprint; learning of short-horizon tasks from as few as 100 demonstrations). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11Octo Model Team, Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy, arXiv:2405.12213, submitted 20 May 2024 (800,000 trajectories from Open X-Embodiment; nine robot platforms). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12Li, C. et al., BEHAVIOR-1K: A Human-Centered, Embodied AI Benchmark with 1,000 Everyday Activities and Realistic Simulation, arXiv:2403.09227, submitted 14 March 2024 (abstract page; 1,000 activities, 50 scenes). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13Counterpoint Research (ed.), Global Humanoid Robot Installations Reach 16,000 Units in 2025 as Mass Production Picks Pace (release of 14 January 2026; China above 80%; the page does not describe the method). Analyst estimate, weak evidence. Counterpoint Research, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14Amazon (ed.), announcement of its one millionth robot and the DeepFleet coordination model (company page; more than 300 facilities; 10% travel-time improvement stated as a projection; the page gives no date, coverage places it in July 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. Amazon, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  15. 15Engadget (ed.), Boston Dynamics unveils production-ready version of Atlas robot at CES 2026 (report of 8 January 2026; first customers Hyundai and Google DeepMind; Hyundai plans car-plant use from 2028). Trade press reporting a company plan, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16European Commission (ed.), AI Act, regulatory framework page (entered into force 1 August 2024; high-risk dates revised by an omnibus in force 27 July 2026; AI-based safety components of products such as surgical robots treated as high-risk). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution A/RES/80/57, Lethal autonomous weapons systems, adopted 1 December 2025 (164 in favour, 6 against, 7 abstentions), vote record page. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
  19. 19International Committee of the Red Cross (ed.), ICRC position on autonomous weapon systems (Geneva, 12 May 2021; recommends prohibiting unpredictable systems and systems that target people, and regulating the rest). ICRC, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
  20. 20Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P., Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets, NBER Working Paper 23285, March 2017 (US adoption 1990 to 2007). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21Adamas Intelligence (ed.), Musk on rare earth export restrictions: Optimus was affected (article of 24 April 2025; Tesla first-quarter 2025 earnings call; arm actuators use permanent magnets). Trade analysis reporting a company statement, weak evidence. Adamas Intelligence, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  22. 22Connected Automated Driving (ed.), UNECE adopts first-ever global rules allowing fully autonomous vehicles (page of 8 July 2026; adopted 24 June 2026; safety-case approach; about 90 existing UN regulations amended). Trade summary of a UN decision, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23Bennett Jones (ed.), First Global Regulatory Framework For Autonomous Vehicles (law-firm blog, August 2026; GTR No. 26 and UN Regulation No. 185; SAE levels 3 to 5; legal status of each). Secondary legal commentary, weak evidence. Bennett Jones, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24Lawfare (ed.), Defense Department Updates Autonomous Weapons Systems Directive (article of 27 January 2023; directive reissued effective 25 January 2023; working group established; criteria not changed). Lawfare Institute, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25UAV Coach (ed.), FAA Says Part 108 Is on the 10-Yard Line, but the BVLOS Rule Is Still Stuck at the White House (article of 16 September 2026; final rule sent to OIRA on 10 July 2026; FAA hopes to publish before the end of 2026). Trade press, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), 2026 AI Index Report, summary page (chapter on technical performance covers robotics; the page gave no robotics figures). Stanford HAI, Stanford. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia estimate of humanoid shipments in 2025 (about 13,000 units, largest supplier about 5,168 units), taken from a search summary of a news report of 8 January 2026. Analyst estimate. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Unitree company claim of more than 5,500 humanoid robots shipped in 2025, taken from a search summary of a news report. Company claim, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Intuitive Surgical, Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 (da Vinci procedure growth and installed base), taken from a search summary; the filing was fetched but the section was not read. Intuitive Surgical, Sunnyvale. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (ed.), Standing General Order 2021-01 on crash reporting, Third Amended order of 24 April 2025, taken from a search summary; the agency page returned an access error. NHTSA, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 10218-1:2025 Robots and robotic devices, safety requirements for industrial robots, Part 1 (third edition, published 5 February 2025), taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 25785-1, safety requirements for industrial mobile robots with actively controlled stability, Part 1: Robots, committee draft in preparation, taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 13482:2014 Robots and robotic devices, safety requirements for personal care robots, cited from memory. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 3691-4 Industrial trucks, safety requirements and verification, Part 4: Driverless industrial trucks and their systems, cited from memory. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 June 2023 on machinery, Official Journal of the European Union; the official page returned no content, summary read through the EU-OSHA page. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 of the European Parliament and of the Council laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; summary read through the Commission page. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal Aviation Administration (ed.), Normal Category Rulemaking for Beyond Visual Line of Sight, notice of proposed rulemaking (Part 108), August 2025, taken from a search summary of a law-firm note. FAA, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Defense (ed.), Directive 3000.09, Autonomy in Weapon Systems, 25 January 2023, text returned an access error; summary read through a news article. DoD, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, the page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, rare earths, the file returned an access error; no figure used. USGS, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (ed.), announcement of export controls on seven rare earth elements and related magnets, April 2025, taken from a search summary. MOFCOM, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 8
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Global Sales of Professional Service Robots Surge 24% (press release, 2026), only the headline was seen on another page. International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Autor, D.H., Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation, Journal of Economic Perspectives 29(3), 3 to 30, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Frey, C.B. and Osborne, M.A., The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114, 254 to 280, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hyundai Motor Group plan to build up to 30,000 robots a year by 2028, taken from a search summary of an Axios report of 5 January 2026; the page returned an access error. Company plan, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Top 5 Global Robotics Trends 2026, the page returned an access error; no figure used. International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Exponential Technology Report 2026: Robotics and Autonomous Systems, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-03
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 robotics edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
XT-03NR-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-XTC-XT-03-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. XT-03 edition Reports Robotics and Autonomous Systems 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-03 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Robotics and Autonomous Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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