Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

11 min read0 figures5 tables34 notesNR-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Robots are infrastructure and a test of institutions
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Humanoid pilots meet a missing safety standard
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Fleets, platforms and learned control
    2. 8.2 Energy, batteries and compute at the edge
    3. 8.3 Actuators, magnets and supply chain
    4. 8.4 Economy, labour and workforce
    5. 8.5 Safety, rules and governance watch
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Fleets, platforms and learned control

Industrial robots are an established fleet. Humanoid and learned-control platforms are new, and evidence for them rests on preprints, analyst estimates and company statements.

>600thousand

industrial robots installed, 20251

5million

operational stock, 20251

22robot types

pooled in one open dataset8

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Industrial robotsinstallations up 11% in 2025; stock 5 million12Reported
Generalist policiespooled data and shared policies published; company papers report vision-language-action models7891011Reported
Household tasksa benchmark of 1,000 activities states that long-horizon tasks remain hard1226Reported
Humanoid platformsabout 16,000 installations in 2025 by one estimate; production started at one company13152728Reported

Couplings

  • AIC → INF learned control
  • INF ↔ FIN fleets and finance
  • MIN → INF actuators

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • humanoid shipments on a common basis
  • service and professional robot volumes

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage

8.2Energy, batteries and compute at the edge

Robot fleets draw power and need batteries and onboard computing. No figure for energy use or battery supply was found in the sources read.

5million

industrial robots in operation, 20251

>300facilities

Amazon robot network, company statement14

0figures bound

robot energy use and battery supply: not bound

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Energy usenot published on a common basis for robot fleets14Expert input
Battery supplynot bound; storage is covered in a separate edition1Expert input
Fleet coordinationa company projects a 10% gain in fleet travel time; not independently verified14Reported
Onboard computenot bound in this edition10Expert input

Couplings

  • ENE ↔ INF facility power
  • AIC → INF onboard computing
  • INF → CLI footprint

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • fleet energy and battery demand
  • onboard compute demand

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage

8.3Actuators, magnets and supply chain

Compact high-torque actuators depend on permanent magnets. Export licensing on rare earth elements and magnets from April 2025 affected one humanoid programme, according to its company.

7elements

rare earth elements under licensing, April 202521

59%

China share of robot installations1

55%

Chinese suppliers share of their home market1

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Rare earth magnetslicensing on seven elements and magnets from April 20252141Reported
Humanoid actuatorsa company said arm actuators use permanent magnets and were affected21Reported
Supply concentrationprocessing and magnet volumes not bound from an opened source3940Expert input
Supplier geographysuppliers from China held 55% of their home market in 20251Reported

Couplings

  • MIN → INF magnets
  • TRD → INF export controls
  • FIN → INF fabrication

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • magnet demand by platform
  • stocks and alternatives

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage

8.4Economy, labour and workforce

Fleet statistics are strong and labour evidence is old. The labour study read covers US adoption from 1990 to 2007.

0.18 to 0.34points

fall in the employment-to-population ratio per robot per 1,000 workers20

0.25 to 0.5%

fall in wages per robot per 1,000 workers20

1million

Amazon robots, company statement14

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Employment effectsone study of 1990 to 2007 finds negative local effects per robot per 1,000 workers20Reported
Occupational exposurejournal analyses of automation exposure exist; not bound here4344Expert input
Fleet operatorsone company describes a fleet of one million robots14Reported
Surgical robotsuse reported in one company filing; not bound from an opened source29Expert input

Couplings

  • INF → FIN labour demand
  • FIN → DAT adjustment records
  • HLT → INF workforce

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • recent labour effects
  • workforce size and skills gaps

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage

8.5Safety, rules and governance watch

Rules for robots are arriving unevenly. Machinery and vehicle rules are being set in 2026 and 2027, standards for legged robots are in draft, and the UN has voted on autonomous weapons.

20January 2027

EU Machinery Regulation applies17

24June 2026

UN regulation for automated driving systems adopted22

164votes

UN resolution on autonomous weapons, 202518

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
MachineryEU Machinery Regulation applies from 20 January 2027 and covers autonomous mobile machinery1735Reported
AI Actthe EU AI Act treats AI-based safety components of products as high-risk, with revised dates1636Reported
Road vehiclesUN GTR 26 and UN Regulation 185 adopted; US crash reporting order in force222330Reported
Weapons and dronesUN vote 164 to 6; US weapons directive reissued in 2023; FAA drone rule pending1819242538Reported

Couplings

  • GOV → INF placing on the market
  • GOV → TRD export controls
  • INF → DAT incident records

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • text of national rules
  • incident data outside road vehicles

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 8Open X-Embodiment Collaboration, Open X-Embodiment: Robotic Learning Datasets and RT-X Models, arXiv:2310.08864, submitted 13 October 2023, revised 14 May 2025 (22 robots, 21 institutions). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Global Robot Demand in Factories Doubles Over 10 Years (World Robotics 2025 press release, Frankfurt, 25 September 2025; installations 542,000 in 2024; stock 4,664,000; forecast about 575,000 for 2025). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 7Brohan, A. et al., RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control, arXiv:2307.15818, submitted 28 July 2023 (company authors; 6,000 evaluation trials). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 9Black, K. et al., pi0: A Vision-Language-Action Flow Model for General Robot Control, arXiv:2410.24164, submitted 31 October 2024, revised 8 January 2026 (company preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 10Gemini Robotics Team, Gemini Robotics: Bringing AI into the Physical World, arXiv:2503.20020, submitted 25 March 2025 (company preprint; learning of short-horizon tasks from as few as 100 demonstrations). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 11Octo Model Team, Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy, arXiv:2405.12213, submitted 20 May 2024 (800,000 trajectories from Open X-Embodiment; nine robot platforms). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 12Li, C. et al., BEHAVIOR-1K: A Human-Centered, Embodied AI Benchmark with 1,000 Everyday Activities and Realistic Simulation, arXiv:2403.09227, submitted 14 March 2024 (abstract page; 1,000 activities, 50 scenes). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 26Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), 2026 AI Index Report, summary page (chapter on technical performance covers robotics; the page gave no robotics figures). Stanford HAI, Stanford. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 13Counterpoint Research (ed.), Global Humanoid Robot Installations Reach 16,000 Units in 2025 as Mass Production Picks Pace (release of 14 January 2026; China above 80%; the page does not describe the method). Analyst estimate, weak evidence. Counterpoint Research, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 15Engadget (ed.), Boston Dynamics unveils production-ready version of Atlas robot at CES 2026 (report of 8 January 2026; first customers Hyundai and Google DeepMind; Hyundai plans car-plant use from 2028). Trade press reporting a company plan, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia estimate of humanoid shipments in 2025 (about 13,000 units, largest supplier about 5,168 units), taken from a search summary of a news report of 8 January 2026. Analyst estimate. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Unitree company claim of more than 5,500 humanoid robots shipped in 2025, taken from a search summary of a news report. Company claim, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 14Amazon (ed.), announcement of its one millionth robot and the DeepFleet coordination model (company page; more than 300 facilities; 10% travel-time improvement stated as a projection; the page gives no date, coverage places it in July 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. Amazon, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 21Adamas Intelligence (ed.), Musk on rare earth export restrictions: Optimus was affected (article of 24 April 2025; Tesla first-quarter 2025 earnings call; arm actuators use permanent magnets). Trade analysis reporting a company statement, weak evidence. Adamas Intelligence, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (ed.), announcement of export controls on seven rare earth elements and related magnets, April 2025, taken from a search summary. MOFCOM, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, the page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, rare earths, the file returned an access error; no figure used. USGS, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 20Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P., Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets, NBER Working Paper 23285, March 2017 (US adoption 1990 to 2007). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Autor, D.H., Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation, Journal of Economic Perspectives 29(3), 3 to 30, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Frey, C.B. and Osborne, M.A., The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114, 254 to 280, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Intuitive Surgical, Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 (da Vinci procedure growth and installed base), taken from a search summary; the filing was fetched but the section was not read. Intuitive Surgical, Sunnyvale. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 22Connected Automated Driving (ed.), UNECE adopts first-ever global rules allowing fully autonomous vehicles (page of 8 July 2026; adopted 24 June 2026; safety-case approach; about 90 existing UN regulations amended). Trade summary of a UN decision, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution A/RES/80/57, Lethal autonomous weapons systems, adopted 1 December 2025 (164 in favour, 6 against, 7 abstentions), vote record page. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  26. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 June 2023 on machinery, Official Journal of the European Union; the official page returned no content, summary read through the EU-OSHA page. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  27. 16European Commission (ed.), AI Act, regulatory framework page (entered into force 1 August 2024; high-risk dates revised by an omnibus in force 27 July 2026; AI-based safety components of products such as surgical robots treated as high-risk). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  28. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 of the European Parliament and of the Council laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; summary read through the Commission page. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  29. 23Bennett Jones (ed.), First Global Regulatory Framework For Autonomous Vehicles (law-firm blog, August 2026; GTR No. 26 and UN Regulation No. 185; SAE levels 3 to 5; legal status of each). Secondary legal commentary, weak evidence. Bennett Jones, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (ed.), Standing General Order 2021-01 on crash reporting, Third Amended order of 24 April 2025, taken from a search summary; the agency page returned an access error. NHTSA, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  31. 19International Committee of the Red Cross (ed.), ICRC position on autonomous weapon systems (Geneva, 12 May 2021; recommends prohibiting unpredictable systems and systems that target people, and regulating the rest). ICRC, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  32. 24Lawfare (ed.), Defense Department Updates Autonomous Weapons Systems Directive (article of 27 January 2023; directive reissued effective 25 January 2023; working group established; criteria not changed). Lawfare Institute, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  33. 25UAV Coach (ed.), FAA Says Part 108 Is on the 10-Yard Line, but the BVLOS Rule Is Still Stuck at the White House (article of 16 September 2026; final rule sent to OIRA on 10 July 2026; FAA hopes to publish before the end of 2026). Trade press, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  34. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Defense (ed.), Directive 3000.09, Autonomy in Weapon Systems, 25 January 2023, text returned an access error; summary read through a news article. DoD, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Robotics and Autonomous Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Robotics and Autonomous Systems.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskExponential Technology

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices