Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Robots are infrastructure and a test of institutions
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Humanoid pilots meet a missing safety standard
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Installations in 2025 against the 2025 forecast | 600,000 ÷ 575,000 | at least 1.04, about 4% above |
| (2) | Installations outside China in 2025, floor | 600,000 − 354,000 | about 246,000 |
| (3) | Difference between US and Japan installations in 2025 | 38,500 − 36,219 | about 2,300 |
| (4) | Stock growth implied by rounded figures | 5,000,000 ÷ 4,664,000 | about 1.07, against 9% reported |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Robotics System Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-XT03-ROBOTICS · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent robots and autonomous systems as infrastructure coupled to energy, magnets and minerals, finance, workforce, safety rules and security
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
0strong
documented within one season
0moderate
documented, buffered
20weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-XTECH-ROBOTICS-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 46 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 robotics annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Robotics System Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial robot installations | 2025 | Sep 2026 | annual | next World Robotics report |
| Robot density | 2024 | Apr 2026 | annual | next density release |
| Road vehicle safety study | 2021 to 2024 | Jul 2026 | one-off | follow-up studies |
| Humanoid installations | 2025 | Jan 2026 | annual | next estimate |
| Machinery Regulation | 2023 | applies Jan 2027 | one-off | harmonised standards list |
| UN vehicle regulation | 2026 | Jun 2026 | periodic | national implementation |
| Labour effects | 1990 to 2007 | Mar 2017 | one-off | new studies |
| Magnet licensing | 2025 | Apr 2025 | per event | monthly |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Fleets | GOOD | service and professional robot volumes |
| Learned control | PARTIAL | claims on a common basis |
| Road vehicles | PARTIAL | continuous independent monitoring |
| Humanoids | THIN | shipments on a common basis |
| Governance | PARTIAL | rule text and dates |
| Supply | THIN | magnet volumes and stocks |
| Energy | THIN | fleet energy and battery demand |
| Workforce | THIN | recent labour effects |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Energy and battery demand of robot fleets | operators, vendors, national laboratories, peer-reviewed footprint studies | not published on a common basis; none retrieved |
| Rare earth magnet demand by robot platform and stocks | IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 202639; USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries40 | both pages returned an access error and were not opened |
| Humanoid shipments on a common basis | company filings and independent audits | analyst estimates differ and company claims are unverified132728 |
| Service and professional robot volumes | IFR service robot release42; IFR trends page46 | only the headline was seen; the release was not opened |
| Surgical robot procedures from the filing itself | Intuitive 10-K for 202529 | the filing was fetched but the relevant section was not reached; figures come from search summaries and are not used |
| NHTSA Standing General Order current text | NHTSA order pages30 | the agency page returned an access error; a later amendment may exist |
| Text of ISO 10218-1:2025 and of the draft ISO 25785-1 | ISO catalogue pages3132 | catalogue pages returned an access error; dates come from search summaries |
| Official text of the EU Machinery Regulation | Official Journal of the European Union35 | the page returned no content; only the EU-OSHA summary was read17 |
| Details of the UN global technical regulation and UN Regulation 185 | UNECE documents22 | two secondary pages were read; the regulation texts were not |
| FAA final rule on flights beyond visual line of sight | Federal Register2537 | the rule was unpublished at the evidence close; status comes from trade press |
| Humanoid company plans from the companies | investor materials and company releases1545 | one trade report read; the investor figures were not opened |
| Recent labour effects of robot adoption | national statistics, peer-reviewed studies | only a study of 1990 to 2007 was read20 |
| Field incident data outside road vehicles | regulators, operators, sector bodies | no consolidated series found |
| Capability rungs beyond standards and planning | agencies, operators, laboratories | not reviewed |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the International Federation of Robotics on 24 September 2026. Annual. Role: binds INF-001 and the fleet tiles. Coverage: industrial robots worldwide, survey of suppliers.
EVD-XT03-001
Industrial robot installations and operational stock, World Robotics 2026 release1
Issued by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety on 23 July 2026. One-off. Role: binds INF-007. Coverage: four US cities, 2021 to 2024, one operator.
EVD-XT03-002
Driverless vehicle crash comparison, IIHS study5
| Dimension | EVD-XT03-001 | EVD-XT03-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | industrial robots only; 2025 total given as a floor | one operator; four cities; about 50 million miles |
| Timeliness | about 9 months after year end | about 2 years after the data period |
| Revision | stock growth differs from rounded figures | single study |
| Method transparency | survey method summarised in the release | method described; crash data limits stated |
| External validation | federation review | institute review of NHTSA reports |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| ADS | automated driving system |
| BVLOS | beyond visual line of sight |
| FAA | US Federal Aviation Administration |
| GTR | global technical regulation |
| IFR | International Federation of Robotics |
| IIHS | Insurance Institute for Highway Safety |
| ISO | International Organization for Standardization |
| NHTSA | US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration |
| UNECE | United Nations Economic Commission for Europe |
| VLA | vision-language-action model |
| WP.29 | UN World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations |
| LAWS | lethal autonomous weapons systems |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-XT03-HUM-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Cluster notes | cards for the major robot fleet and supply clusters | 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: robot density
- Construct
- number of operating industrial robots per 10,000 persons employed in manufacturing
- Unit
- robots per 10,000 employees
- Method
- federation count of operational stock divided by manufacturing employment
- Source
- IFR release of 8 April 20263
- Uncertainty
- not stated on the page read
- Known limits
- manufacturing only; employment definitions differ between countries
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, the page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, rare earths, the file returned an access error; no figure used. USGS, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Counterpoint Research (ed.), Global Humanoid Robot Installations Reach 16,000 Units in 2025 as Mass Production Picks Pace (release of 14 January 2026; China above 80%; the page does not describe the method). Analyst estimate, weak evidence. Counterpoint Research, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Omdia estimate of humanoid shipments in 2025 (about 13,000 units, largest supplier about 5,168 units), taken from a search summary of a news report of 8 January 2026. Analyst estimate. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Unitree company claim of more than 5,500 humanoid robots shipped in 2025, taken from a search summary of a news report. Company claim, weak evidence. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Global Sales of Professional Service Robots Surge 24% (press release, 2026), only the headline was seen on another page. International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Top 5 Global Robotics Trends 2026, the page returned an access error; no figure used. International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Intuitive Surgical, Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 (da Vinci procedure growth and installed base), taken from a search summary; the filing was fetched but the section was not read. Intuitive Surgical, Sunnyvale. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (ed.), Standing General Order 2021-01 on crash reporting, Third Amended order of 24 April 2025, taken from a search summary; the agency page returned an access error. NHTSA, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 10218-1:2025 Robots and robotic devices, safety requirements for industrial robots, Part 1 (third edition, published 5 February 2025), taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 25785-1, safety requirements for industrial mobile robots with actively controlled stability, Part 1: Robots, committee draft in preparation, taken from a search summary of the catalogue entry. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 June 2023 on machinery, Official Journal of the European Union; the official page returned no content, summary read through the EU-OSHA page. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2023/1230 on machinery, legislation page (applies from 20 January 2027; replaces Directive 2006/42/EC; aims to cover autonomous mobile machinery and artificial-intelligence safety modules). EU-OSHA, Bilbao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22Connected Automated Driving (ed.), UNECE adopts first-ever global rules allowing fully autonomous vehicles (page of 8 July 2026; adopted 24 June 2026; safety-case approach; about 90 existing UN regulations amended). Trade summary of a UN decision, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UAV Coach (ed.), FAA Says Part 108 Is on the 10-Yard Line, but the BVLOS Rule Is Still Stuck at the White House (article of 16 September 2026; final rule sent to OIRA on 10 July 2026; FAA hopes to publish before the end of 2026). Trade press, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal Aviation Administration (ed.), Normal Category Rulemaking for Beyond Visual Line of Sight, notice of proposed rulemaking (Part 108), August 2025, taken from a search summary of a law-firm note. FAA, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15Engadget (ed.), Boston Dynamics unveils production-ready version of Atlas robot at CES 2026 (report of 8 January 2026; first customers Hyundai and Google DeepMind; Hyundai plans car-plant use from 2028). Trade press reporting a company plan, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hyundai Motor Group plan to build up to 30,000 robots a year by 2028, taken from a search summary of an Axios report of 5 January 2026; the page returned an access error. Company plan, weak evidence. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P., Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets, NBER Working Paper 23285, March 2017 (US adoption 1990 to 2007). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally (World Robotics 2026 press release, Frankfurt, 24 September 2026; installations of more than 600,000 in 2025, up 11%; China 354,000; stock 5 million; forecast 655,000 in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (ed.), Waymo’s driverless cars crash less often than people (news release, 23 July 2026; about 50 million driverless miles, 2021 to 2024; 68% lower crash involvement; 81% fewer injury crashes per mile; four cities). IIHS, Arlington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Waymo (ed.), Safety Impact hub (page read November 2026; 271.3 million rider-only miles through June 2026; about 95% fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes than a human benchmark). Company-reported analysis, weak evidence. Waymo, Mountain View. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3International Federation of Robotics (ed.), Robot Density Surges in Europe, Asia and Americas (press release, 8 April 2026; 2024 density: South Korea 1,220, Singapore 818, China 166, global average 132 robots per 10,000 employees). International Federation of Robotics, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back