Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Synthetic biology is a build capability and a governance test
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Design capability outpaces screening and oversight
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 44 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.144 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Robertson, W.E. et al., Escherichia coli with a 57-codon genetic code, Science 390 (6771), eady4368, published 23 October 2025 (record read via PubMed, PMID 40743368; the record gives a 4 megabase synthetic genome and six replaced sense codons). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  2. 2MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology (ed.), Syn57 represents a new chapter in the genetic code of life (news page, 1 August 2025; over 101,000 codons recoded; 64 to 57 codons; genome of about 4 megabases built from 38 fragments of about 100 kilobases). MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, Cambridge. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  3. 3Fredens, J. et al., Total synthesis of Escherichia coli with a recoded genome, Nature 569 (7757), 514 to 518, 2019 (record read via Europe PMC: 18,214 codons recoded; 61-codon genome). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4Debugging and consolidating multiple synthetic chromosomes reveals combinatorial genetic interactions, Cell 186 (24), 5220 to 5236, 2023 (record read via Europe PMC: 6.5 synthetic chromosomes in one strain; over half of the Sc2.0 genome). Cell Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5Gibson, D.G. et al., Creation of a bacterial cell controlled by a chemically synthesised genome, Science 329 (5987), 52 to 56, 2010 (record read via Europe PMC: 1.08 million base pair genome). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  6. 6Nielsen, A.A.K. et al., Genetic circuit design automation, Science 352 (6281), 2016 (record read via Europe PMC: 60 circuits; 45 correct in all output states; 92% of output states as predicted). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7Watson, J.L. et al., De novo design of protein structure and function with RFdiffusion, Nature 620, 1089 to 1100, 2023 (record read via Europe PMC). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8Frangoul, H. et al., Exagamglogene autotemcel for severe sickle cell disease, New England Journal of Medicine 390 (18), 1649 to 1662, 2024 (record read via Europe PMC: 44 treated; 29 of 30 evaluable free of severe crises for 12 months; median follow-up 19.3 months). Massachusetts Medical Society, Waltham. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  9. 9US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), FDA approves first gene therapies to treat patients with sickle cell disease (press announcement, 8 December 2023; Casgevy and Lyfgenia; ages 12 and over; 29 of 31 evaluable Casgevy patients free of severe crises for at least 12 months). FDA, Silver Spring. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3
  10. 10Musunuru, K. et al., Patient-specific in vivo gene editing to treat a rare genetic disease, New England Journal of Medicine 392 (22), 2235 to 2243, 2025 (record read via Europe PMC: one infant; two infusions at about 7 and 8 months). Massachusetts Medical Society, Waltham. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  11. 11Kyrou, K. et al., A CRISPR-Cas9 gene drive targeting doublesex causes complete population suppression in caged Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes, Nature Biotechnology 36, 1062 to 1066, 2018 (record read via Europe PMC; laboratory cages only). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  12. 12Confronting risks of mirror life, Science 386, 1351 to 1353, 2024 (record read via Europe PMC; the record gives only a one-line abstract calling for broad discussion). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  13. 13Strengthening nucleic acid biosecurity screening against generative protein design tools, Science 390 (6768), 82 to 87, 2025 (record read via Europe PMC; abstract only; no method detail used). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  14. 14Congressional Research Service (ed.), National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology: Final Report and Options for Congress, CRS Insight IN12546, 17 April 2025 (report of 8 April 2025; 49 recommendations; at least USD 15 billion over five years; National Biotechnology Coordination Office). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15Federation of American Scientists (ed.), Translating Vision into Action: FAS commentary on the NSCEB final report (commentary page; six pillars; cites over USD 210 billion of US GDP and over 640,000 jobs for the bioeconomy; secondary and advocacy-leaning source). Federation of American Scientists, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16Twist Bioscience Corporation (ed.), Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, results for the fiscal third quarter ended 30 June 2026 (company filing; revenue USD 118.4 million; nine months USD 332.8 million; fiscal 2026 guidance USD 456 to 457 million; company statements and guidance are weak evidence). US Securities and Exchange Commission, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (ed.), Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, fourth quarter and full year 2025 results (company filing of 26 February 2026; revenue USD 170.155 million against USD 227.043 million; net loss USD 312.763 million; company statements are weak evidence). US Securities and Exchange Commission, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18OECD (ed.), Anticipatory governance for responsible innovation in synthetic biology, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers No. 193, 21 May 2026 (record read via a bibliographic database; abstract only). OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19OECD (ed.), Synthetic biology, AI and automation: a forward-looking technology assessment, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers No. 187, 4 December 2025 (record read via a bibliographic database; abstract only). OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  20. 20Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Synthetic biology (programme page; decisions X/13 to 16/21; AHTEG; horizon scanning; thematic action plan). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21World Health Organization (ed.), Global guidance framework for the responsible use of the life sciences: mitigating biorisks and governing dual-use research (publication page, 13 September 2022). WHO, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22Baker McKenzie (ed.), EU Biotech Act unveiled: Commission proposal to turn Europe into a biotech powerhouse (law firm summary, 19 December 2025; proposal of 16 December 2025; health focus; investment pilot with the European Investment Bank Group; 12-month certificate extension; biodefence measures; second act expected in Q3 2026). Secondary source, not the Commission text. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23BioMADE (ed.), DoD approves USD 87 million for newest bioindustrial manufacturing innovation institute (news page; seven years; the page shows Oct 20 and a 2023 footer, the press release is dated 2020 in search listings). BioMADE, Saint Paul. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24US Manufacturing Program (ed.), Bioindustrial (programme topic page; Distributed Bioindustrial Manufacturing Program awards announced 10 July to 13 September 2024; 25 awards; USD 42 million cumulative). Manufacturing USA, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Office of Science and Technology Policy (ed.), Framework for Nucleic Acid Synthesis Screening, April 2024, taken from search-result summaries; a fetch of the page was refused by the fetch tool. OSTP, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Executive Order 14292, Improving the Safety and Security of Biological Research, 5 May 2025 (90 days to revise or replace the framework), taken from search-result summaries; a fetch of an explainer page was refused by the fetch tool. The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Research Service (ed.), report on artificial intelligence and biosecurity risks (reported in July 2026 as unable to determine whether the 2024 framework or the 2025 policy had been revised), taken from a trade news summary. Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Biotech Act, COM(2025) 1022, 16 December 2025, taken from law firm and regulator summaries; the Commission page was not retrieved. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament (ed.), Legislative train entry for the European Biotech Act II (second act expected in the third quarter of 2026), taken from a search-result summary; the page returned no content. European Parliament, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Engineering Biology Research Consortium (ed.), response on nucleic acid synthesis screening under Executive Order 14292, November 2025, listed in search results only. EBRC, Emeryville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Gene Synthesis Consortium (ed.), Harmonized Screening Protocol, cited from memory. IGSC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UK Government (ed.), screening guidance on synthetic nucleic acids, 2024, cited from memory. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (eds.), Biodefense in the Age of Synthetic Biology, 2018, cited from memory; a fetch returned an unrelated page. National Academies Press, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction, 1972, cited from memory. United Nations, Geneva. Observation year 1972. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety to the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2000, cited from memory. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2000. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Organization for Standardization (ed.), ISO 20688-2, requirements for the production and quality control of synthesised gene fragments, genes and genome-scale constructs, cited from memory. ISO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey Global Institute (ed.), The Bio Revolution: Innovations transforming economies, societies, and our lives, May 2020, cited from memory; the fetch returned a service error and no figure is used. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jinek, M. et al., A programmable dual-RNA-guided DNA endonuclease in adaptive bacterial immunity, Science 337, 816 to 821, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gibson, D.G. et al., Enzymatic assembly of DNA molecules up to several hundred kilobases, Nature Methods 6, 343 to 345, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ro, D.-K. et al., Production of the antimalarial drug precursor artemisinic acid in engineered yeast, Nature 440, 940 to 943, 2006, cited from memory. Observation year 2006. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Elowitz, M.B. and Leibler, S., A synthetic oscillatory network of transcriptional regulators, Nature 403, 335 to 338, 2000, cited from memory. Observation year 2000. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gardner, T.S., Cantor, C.R. and Collins, J.J., Construction of a genetic toggle switch in Escherichia coli, Nature 403, 339 to 342, 2000, cited from memory. Observation year 2000. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Richardson, S.M. et al., Design of a synthetic yeast genome, Science 355, 1040 to 1044, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: bioRxiv preprint of the Syn57 study, Escherichia coli with a 57-codon genetic code, 2025, identified from a search result; the page returned HTTP 429. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Exponential Technology Report 2026: Synthetic Biology and Bioengineering, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-04
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 synthetic biology edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
XT-04NR-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-XTC-XT-04-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. XT-04 edition Reports Synthetic Biology and Bioengineering 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-04 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Synthetic Biology and Bioengineering (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-SYNBIO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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