References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1HPC is power, cooling and policy before it is speed
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Power and siting limits meet fast-growing demand
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
C.143 sources
NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).
- 1TOP500 (ed.), TOP500 list, June 2026, 67th edition (list page; top systems, Rmax, Rpeak, cores and power). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 2TOP500 (ed.), TOP500 list, November 2025, 66th edition (list page; top systems, Rmax, Rpeak, power). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
- 3TOP500 (ed.), Green500 list, June 2026 (list page; top five by gigaflops per watt). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 4TOP500 (ed.), LineShine Debuts at No. 1 as the TOP500 Enters a New Global Exascale Era (news release, 23 June 2026; LineShine, HPCG, HPL-MxP, Green500 values). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 5TOP500 (ed.), Highlights, June 2026 (list totals, accelerator and processor shares, HPCG and HPL-MxP tables; the page gives some figures that differ from the list page). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 6POST-CLOSE, context only: TOP500 (ed.), TOP500 news index (headlines and dates of the lists of November 2024, June 2025, November 2025 and June 2026; no November 2026 list at page read). TOP500 project, Hamburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 7Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (ed.), Frontier (system page; 1.6 exaflops peak; 74 cabinets; delivered 2021; the page value differs from the peak on the list page). Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
- 8Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (ed.), compute systems (index page; Lux and Discovery labelled as introduced; no specifications). Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
- 9EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (ed.), JUPITER launching Europe’s exascale era (news item, 5 September 2025; about 24,000 GH200 superchips; warm-water cooling; funding shares; power and budget not stated). EuroHPC JU, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
- 10EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (ed.), AI Factories (programme page; 19 AI Factories and 13 antennas stated; the page lists 18 sites and 15 antennas). EuroHPC JU, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
- 11EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (ed.), Discover EuroHPC JU (about page; budget of at least EUR 8.2 billion for 2021 to 2027; Council Regulations 2021/1173, 2024/1732 and 2026/150). EuroHPC JU, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 12US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE releases new report evaluating increase in electricity demand from data centres (news item, 20 December 2024; 176 TWh in 2023, 4.4% of US electricity; 6.7% to 12% projected for 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 13US Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), BIS homepage (notice of 16 January 2025 on advanced computing integrated circuits; extension of 7 April 2026 to 31 December 2026; guidance of May 2026 on Country Group D:5 and Macau; full texts not opened). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 14RIKEN (ed.), FugakuNEXT project with Fujitsu and NVIDIA (news item, 22 August 2025; MONAKA-X CPU, NVIDIA GPU; more than 5 times hardware performance; up to 100 times application performance in about 40 MW; more than 600 exaflops FP8 sparse; operation around 2030). RIKEN, Wako. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 15OpenMP Architecture Review Board (ed.), OpenMP specifications (index page; version 6.0 of November 2024; technical report 15 as a public comment draft of 6.1, July 2026). OpenMP ARB, Urbana. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 16MPI Forum (ed.), MPI documents (index page; MPI 5.0 voted through 5 June 2025; MPI 4.1 of 2 November 2023). Message Passing Interface Forum. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 17Exascale Computing Project (ed.), project site (2016 to 2024; USD 1.8 billion; about 2,800 collaborators; concluded). US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 18Patterson, D. et al., Carbon Emissions and Large Neural Network Training, arXiv:2104.10350, submitted 21 April 2021 (abstract page). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 19Luccioni, A.S., Jernite, Y. and Strubell, E., Power Hungry Processing: Watts Driving the Cost of AI Deployment?, ACM FAccT 2024, arXiv preprint of November 2023 (abstract page). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 20Luccioni, A.S., Viguier, S. and Ligozat, A.-L., Estimating the Carbon Footprint of BLOOM, a 176B Parameter Language Model, arXiv:2211.02001, submitted 3 November 2022 (abstract page; about 24.7 tonnes CO2eq dynamic, about 50.5 tonnes life cycle). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 21Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (ed.), Alps (system page; 2,688 Grace-Hopper nodes; 434.9 petaflops; inaugurated September 2024). CSCS, Lugano. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 22National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource Pilot (ed.), NAIRR pilot site (more than 950 projects; 14 federal agencies; 26 non-governmental partners; Operations Center award of 1 September 2026). US National Science Foundation, Alexandria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 23UK Government (ed.), AI Opportunities Action Plan (page; expand the AI Research Resource by at least 20 times by 2030; non-AI HPC and exascale flagged as unresolved; no budget figure). Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 24POST-CLOSE, context only: Post-close, context only: NIST (ed.), CHIPS for America (programme page; USD 50 billion; USD 11 billion research and USD 39 billion incentives; awards of September and October 2026 listed). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
- 25European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act (policy page; Regulation (EU) 2023/1781 in force 21 September 2023; 19 State aid decisions over EUR 33 billion; Chips Act 2.0 proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
- 26POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Energy (ed.), Genesis Mission (programme page; goal of 100,000 science and technology professionals over a decade; announcements dated August to October 2026; no systems named). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 27Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ed.), The Genesis Mission (page; Lux and Discovery listed with one-line descriptions only). Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (2025; about 415 TWh for data centres in 2024, about 945 TWh in 2030), taken from press and search-result summaries; the IEA pages returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shehabi, A. et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, December 2024; figures taken from a DOE news item [12]; the report pages returned an access error. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: HPCwire (ed.), Surprise: Chinese LineShine takes number 1 on TOP500 (23 June 2026), and press coverage that China had stopped submitting to the list in 2023, taken from search-result summaries; the HPCwire page returned an access error. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Argonne National Laboratory (ed.), Genesis Mission systems (Solstice and Equinox; reported plans of 100,000 and 10,000 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs, vendor-stated AI performance figures), taken from search-result summaries that disagree on dates; the page returned an access error. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), El Capitan verified as world’s fastest supercomputer (news item, November 2024), not retrieved; list values only. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security, Implementation of Additional Export Controls: Certain Advanced Computing Items; Supercomputer and Semiconductor End Use (Federal Register, 25 October 2023), not retrieved; the page redirected. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission, Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/1364 of 14 March 2024 on the first phase of the establishment of a common Union rating scheme for data centres (500 kW threshold, annual reporting by 15 May), taken from law firm summaries; EUR-Lex returned no content. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Noerr (ed.), note of October 2026 on the proposal of 21 September 2026 for a delegated regulation on an EU data centre rating scheme with grades A to G from 2027, taken from search-result summaries; preparatory working draft (2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO and IEC (eds.), ISO/IEC 30134-2 Information technology, Data centres key performance indicators, Part 2: Power usage effectiveness, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Dongarra, J.J., Luszczek, P. and Petitet, A., The LINPACK Benchmark: past, present and future, Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience 15, 803 to 820, 2003, cited from memory. Observation year 2003. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Koomey, J.G. et al., Implications of historical trends in the electrical efficiency of computing, IEEE Annals of the History of Computing 33(3), 46 to 54, 2011, cited from memory. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shalf, J., The future of computing beyond Moore’s Law, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 378, 20190061, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Dennard, R.H. et al., Design of ion-implanted MOSFET’s with very small physical dimensions, IEEE Journal of Solid-State Circuits 9(5), 256 to 268, 1974, cited from memory. Observation year 1974. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: DatacenterDynamics and The Next Platform (eds.), reports on FugakuNEXT (development budget above 110 billion yen, FP64 peak goal above 2.6 exaflops), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Uptime Institute (ed.), Global Data Center Survey 2025, not retrieved; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Uptime Institute, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 43US Congress (ed.), CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, Division A, section 102 (statute text, enacted 9 August 2022; CHIPS for America Fund appropriations for fiscal years 2022 to 2026 sum to USD 50 billion, of which USD 39 billion for incentives and USD 11 billion for research). Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
C.2Publication record
Publication
- Title
- Exponential Technology Report 2026: HPC and Advanced Computing, Baseline Edition
- Series
- Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-07
- Edition
- Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
- Version
- v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
- Publication ID
- NR-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Evidence close
- 30 September 2026
- Publication date
- October 2026
- DOI
- concept and version DOI at deposit
Publisher
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
- Place
- Toronto
- Editor
- Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
- Stewards
- GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
- Licence
- text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
- Copyright
- © 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
- Language
- English (en-GB) source edition
- Correspondence
- Registry correction pathway · editorial office
Colophon
- Format
- A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
- Typefaces
- Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
- Design standard
- Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
- Accessibility
- tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
- Production
- Reports editorial team, GCRI
Release path for this version
| Step | What happens | When |
|---|---|---|
| Draft | editorial self-check complete at evidence close | October 2026 |
| Steward review | five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N) | Q4 2026 |
| Approval | publication authority approves the exact digest | before release |
| Deposit | concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set | at release |
| Succession | the 2027 HPC edition reports changes against this baseline | 2027 |
- Current version
- v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
- Previous edition
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
- Latest version
- resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
- Correction route
- Registry correction pathway
- Notice types
- erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal
C.3Corrections log
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XT-07 | NR-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.
C.4Open record
This edition’s open record
- Publication ID
- NR-XTECH-HPC-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Desk identifier and series alias
- NR-XTC-XT-07-2026-BL
- Collection
- None
- DOI
- Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
- Versions
- Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
- Bundle
- RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0
Credit and identity
- ORCID
- Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
- ROR
- Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
- CRediT
- Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
- Account
- None needed to contribute; never a password
Find and follow
Search the open indexes for HPC and Advanced Computing; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.
Mirrors and harvest
The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.
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}C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars
Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.
- F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
- F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
- F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
- Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
- XT-07 edition Reports HPC and Advanced Computing 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
- F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
- F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
- Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.
What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-07 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Foundry to Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Universe to Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Foundry to Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Reports to Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |