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Systems and sectors at baseline

7 min read0 figures2 tables19 notesNR-XTECH-CLOUD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Cloud is shared infrastructure with a physical footprint
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Shared control-plane fault with diverging sovereignty rules
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

ENE · Energy

Global data centre electricity use

415TWh

1.5% of global electricity; 945 TWh in the 2030 base case.

Reported2024IEA1

ENE · Energy

US data centre share of electricity

4.4%

176 TWh in 2023; 6.7 to 12% projected for 2028.

Reported2023LBNL, DOE23

ENE · Grid

Data centre share of metered electricity, Ireland

22%

21% in 2023.

Reported2024CSO4

FIN · Market

Top three providers share of cloud revenue

63%

Amazon 28, Microsoft 20, Google 15; sum is method (2).

Reported2026Synergy10

INF · Resilience

Duration of the AWS us-east-1 event

14.5hours

fault in a regional database service DNS.

Reported2025AWS20

GOV · Governance

EU switching charges removed from

2027January

Data Act, 12 January 2027.

Reported2025European Commission16

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through cloud, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries cloud risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATOperators report water use on different methods; cooling choice trades water against power.WAT ↔ ENEReported EQL 3
ENEData centres used about 415 TWh in 2024; shares are high in some grids, such as Ireland at 22%.ENE ↔ INFReported EQL 4
FOONo documented coupling at baseline; platform use in agrifood is not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
HLTHealth records and services run on cloud platforms; no figure bound here.INF → HLTExpert input EQL 1
BIONo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
CLIOperator emissions and electricity growth are reported; no sector total is bound.INF → CLIReported EQL 3
INFThe core system: shared facilities and platforms, with large operator-reported events in 2025.the core systemReported EQL 4
FINThree providers held 63% of cloud infrastructure revenue in Q2 2026.FIN → INFReported EQL 3
DATData location, switching and sovereignty rules are changing in the EU.GOV → DATReported EQL 5
AICAI demand is a stated driver of data centre electricity growth; shares are not split here.AIC → ENEReported EQL 3
MINHardware and mineral dependence of data centres is not bound here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
TRDSovereignty and procurement rules shape where workloads may run.INF ↔ TRDInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on cloud, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcloud couples to energy, water, finance and cyber systemsshared control-plane faultTHIN
GS-01Wateroperator water figures on different methods68cooling in water-stressed areasTHIN
GS-02Energydata centre electricity reported134local grid loadPARTIAL
GS-03Foodno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-04Healthhealth services run on cloud; no figure boundservice outageTHIN
GS-05Financemarket concentration reported10provider dependencePARTIAL
GS-06Developmentaccess to capacity and skillswidening gapsTHIN
GS-07Climateoperator emissions reported5electricity growthTHIN
GS-08Disasterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-09Infrastructurefacilities, grids and networks418single-region dependencePARTIAL
GS-10Citiessiting near load centres; not boundgrid competitionTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationplatform use not evidenced herenone documentedTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalincident reports and authorisation rules20212224shared-platform faultsGOOD
GS-14Policycompetition and data rules11121618outcomes pendingGOOD
GS-15Sciencedefinitions and surveys252829common metricsPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (data centres about 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of global electricity; about 945 TWh in the 2030 base case; about 1,200 TWh in 2035 with a range of 700 to 1,700), taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned access errors. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Shehabi, A. et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, published 19 December 2024, DOI 10.71468/P1WC7Q (publication page; the page gives authors and a scenario range to 2028 but no figures; figures read in the DOE summary [3]). Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.71468/P1WC7Qback
  3. 3US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE releases new report evaluating increase in electricity demand from data centres (20 December 2024; about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023; 6.7 to 12% projected for 2028; 58 TWh in 2014 and 176 TWh in 2023). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 4Central Statistics Office (ed.), Data Centres Metered Electricity Consumption 2024 (statistical release of 10 June 2025; 22% of metered electricity in 2024, 21% in 2023; the GWh table was not in the content read). Central Statistics Office, Cork. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 10Synergy Research Group (ed.), Q2 Cloud Market Passes $143 Billion; Highest Growth Rate in Eight Years (release of 30 July 2026; Amazon 28%, Microsoft 20%, Google 15%; quarterly revenue USD 143.4 billion; growth 43%; definition IaaS, PaaS and hosted private cloud; industry analyst). Synergy Research Group, Reno. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 20Amazon Web Services (ed.), Summary of the Amazon DynamoDB Service Disruption in the Northern Virginia (US-EAST-1) Region (post-event summary; 19 October 11:48 PM to 20 October 2:20 PM PDT; latent race condition in the DNS management system for the regional endpoint; services and times listed; operator report). Amazon Web Services, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 16European Commission (ed.), Data Act explained (policy page; switching charges including data egress charges removed from 12 January 2027; transitional period 11 January 2024 to 12 January 2027; notice period not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 6Microsoft (ed.), 2025 Environmental Data Fact Sheet (PDF; fiscal year ended 30 June 2024; Table 6 electricity consumed within the organisation 29,829,540 MWh in FY24 and 23,567,502 in FY23; Table 9 water consumption 5,807 ML in FY24 and 7,844 in FY23 after a new estimation approach; company-reported, section 1 reviewed by an external firm). Microsoft, Redmond. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 8Li, P., Yang, J., Islam, M.A. and Ren, S., Making AI Less Thirsty: Uncovering and Addressing the Secret Water Footprint of AI Models, arXiv:2304.03271, v1 April 2023, v5 March 2025 (abstract page; projection of 4.2 to 6.6 billion cubic metres of water withdrawal in 2027; accepted by Communications of the ACM per the page). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 5Google (ed.), 2025 Environmental Report (PDF; fiscal year 2024; data centre electricity consumption up 27%, data centre energy emissions down 12%, fleet PUE 1.09 against a stated industry average of 1.56, water consumption up 28%; company-reported). Google, Mountain View. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 18Euronews (ed.), EU Cloud and AI Development Act gets mixed reception (news article of 22 June 2026; three pillars; aim to triple European data centre capacity in five to seven years; acceleration zones within six months; 12-month maximum permit procedure; four assurance levels; reactions; press report of the proposal, not the proposal text). Euronews, Lyon. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 21Google Cloud (ed.), Incident report for the Service Control outage of 12 June 2025 (status page; 10:51 to 18:18 PDT by the incident header; mini report gives different times; policy data with blank fields caused a null pointer crash in Service Control; operator report). Google, Mountain View. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 22Cloudflare (ed.), Cloudflare outage on November 18, 2025 (blog post; start 11:20 UTC; core traffic largely restored 14:30 UTC; full recovery 17:06 UTC; Bot Management feature file doubled in size and exceeded a limit of 200 features; not caused by a cyber attack, per the operator). Cloudflare, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 24US General Services Administration (ed.), FedRAMP 20x (programme page; announced March 2025; phase 1 26 submissions; first pilot authorisations 6 March 2026; phase 3 wide-scale adoption active; new Rev5 submissions stop 11 June 2027, a future date that may change). FedRAMP, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 11UK Competition and Markets Authority (ed.), Cloud services market investigation (case page; final decision published 31 July 2025; recommends prioritising strategic market status investigations of Microsoft and AWS; board decision expected in the first quarter of 2026; the decision documents were not opened). Competition and Markets Authority, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 12European Commission (ed.), Commission opens market investigations into cloud computing services under the Digital Markets Act (announcement of 18 November 2025; two investigations on whether AWS and Microsoft Azure should be designated and one on whether the DMA fits cloud). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 25NIST (ed.), The NIST Definition of Cloud Computing, NIST SP 800-145 (publication page; September 2011; five essential characteristics, three service models and four deployment models). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 28Armbrust, M. et al., Above the Clouds: A Berkeley View of Cloud Computing, Technical Report UCB/EECS-2009-28, 10 February 2009 (report page and abstract). University of California, Berkeley. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 29Cloud Native Computing Foundation (ed.), CNCF Annual Survey 2024 (report page; tenth annual survey; 750 respondents in fall 2024; Kubernetes percentage not on the page). CNCF, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-CLOUD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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