Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

7 min read1 figure0 tables15 notesNR-XTECH-CLOUD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Cloud is shared infrastructure with a physical footprint
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Shared control-plane fault with diverging sovereignty rules
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Cloud, edge and distributed computing matter to the Nexus programme because other infrastructure now runs on them. They are also physical: data centres draw electricity, reject heat and, in some designs, consume water. The IEA reports that data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024, 1.5% of global electricity, and shows 945 TWh in its 2030 base case1. In the United States the share was 4.4% in 2023, with 6.7 to 12% projected for 202823. In Ireland it was 22% of metered electricity in 20244. Three providers held 63% of cloud infrastructure revenue in the second quarter of 2026, according to an industry analyst10. Market power is now a regulatory subject. The UK competition authority recommended further investigation of Microsoft and AWS in July 202511, and the European Commission opened three cloud market investigations on 18 November 202512. The EU Data Act removes switching charges from 12 January 202716. Concentration shows in outages: a fault in one regional database service disrupted AWS services for 14 hours 32 minutes in October 202520. Operator reports on efficiency and water are company-reported and use different baselines. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no demand or outage and ranks no country or provider.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the cloud baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. About 415 TWh worldwide in 2024, 1.5% of the total, per the IEA.1

    How much electricity do data centres use?Reported

  2. In Ireland data centres used 22% of metered electricity in 2024; in the US 4.4% in 2023.34

    Is it a national issue?Reported

  3. Operators report PUE of 1.09 to 1.15, against baselines that differ.57

    How efficient are the large operators?Reported

  4. Operator figures exist but use different methods; one projection is modelled.68

    What about water?Reported

  5. Three providers held 63% of cloud infrastructure revenue in Q2 2026.10

    How concentrated is the market?Reported

  6. Competition reviews in the UK and EU, and the Data Act switching rules.111216

    What are regulators doing?Reported

  7. A single regional fault disrupted AWS services for 14 hours 32 minutes in 2025.20

    Do outages cascade?Reported

  8. A fault in a shared control plane while dependence is concentrated. SCN-XT08-DEP-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLOUD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-011

Three large cloud and network events in 2025 lasted from 3 hours 10 minutes to 14 hours 32 minutes, each traced by its operator to an internal fault.

Figure S.1Duration of three operator-reported events (hours)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
AWS us-east-1, 19 to 20 October 202514.5
Google Cloud, 12 June 20257.5
Cloudflare, 18 November 2025, to core traffic restored3.2

Sources: AWS20; Google Cloud21; Cloudflare22. Durations are derived from stated times, method (3). The events differ in scope and are not comparable.

Each operator traced its event to an internal fault: a latent race condition in a DNS system for a regional database service at AWS20, blank fields in policy data that crashed a control service at Google Cloud21, and a feature file that doubled in size at Cloudflare, which stated that no cyber attack was involved22. Services built on these platforms failed together. The reports do not say how many customers or public services were affected.

S.4At a glance

415TWh

global data centres, 20241

4.4%

US electricity share, 20233

22%

Ireland metered share, 20244

63%

top three cloud revenue share, Q2 202610

14.5hours

AWS us-east-1 event, 202520

2027year

EU switching charges end16

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading cloud and distributed computing as shared infrastructure with a measurable physical footprint.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the cloud arrives as an app that stops working or a headline about energy and water.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Revenue is concentrated, switching charges end in 2027, and recovery from large events falls on customers as well as providers.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Cloud is well described by single events and dated rules and thinly measured as a system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of cloud, edge and distributed computing as infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a forecast of demand or outages, a provider ranking, an endorsement of any vendor or an assessment of any programme. Competition, resilience and energy rules are decisions of competent authorities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 cloud edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (data centres about 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of global electricity; about 945 TWh in the 2030 base case; about 1,200 TWh in 2035 with a range of 700 to 1,700), taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned access errors. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Shehabi, A. et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, published 19 December 2024, DOI 10.71468/P1WC7Q (publication page; the page gives authors and a scenario range to 2028 but no figures; figures read in the DOE summary [3]). Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.71468/P1WC7Qback
  3. 3US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE releases new report evaluating increase in electricity demand from data centres (20 December 2024; about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023; 6.7 to 12% projected for 2028; 58 TWh in 2014 and 176 TWh in 2023). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 4Central Statistics Office (ed.), Data Centres Metered Electricity Consumption 2024 (statistical release of 10 June 2025; 22% of metered electricity in 2024, 21% in 2023; the GWh table was not in the content read). Central Statistics Office, Cork. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 10Synergy Research Group (ed.), Q2 Cloud Market Passes $143 Billion; Highest Growth Rate in Eight Years (release of 30 July 2026; Amazon 28%, Microsoft 20%, Google 15%; quarterly revenue USD 143.4 billion; growth 43%; definition IaaS, PaaS and hosted private cloud; industry analyst). Synergy Research Group, Reno. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 11UK Competition and Markets Authority (ed.), Cloud services market investigation (case page; final decision published 31 July 2025; recommends prioritising strategic market status investigations of Microsoft and AWS; board decision expected in the first quarter of 2026; the decision documents were not opened). Competition and Markets Authority, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 12European Commission (ed.), Commission opens market investigations into cloud computing services under the Digital Markets Act (announcement of 18 November 2025; two investigations on whether AWS and Microsoft Azure should be designated and one on whether the DMA fits cloud). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 16European Commission (ed.), Data Act explained (policy page; switching charges including data egress charges removed from 12 January 2027; transitional period 11 January 2024 to 12 January 2027; notice period not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 20Amazon Web Services (ed.), Summary of the Amazon DynamoDB Service Disruption in the Northern Virginia (US-EAST-1) Region (post-event summary; 19 October 11:48 PM to 20 October 2:20 PM PDT; latent race condition in the DNS management system for the regional endpoint; services and times listed; operator report). Amazon Web Services, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 5Google (ed.), 2025 Environmental Report (PDF; fiscal year 2024; data centre electricity consumption up 27%, data centre energy emissions down 12%, fleet PUE 1.09 against a stated industry average of 1.56, water consumption up 28%; company-reported). Google, Mountain View. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 7Amazon (ed.), 2024 Amazon Sustainability Report (PDF; AWS global PUE 1.15 in 2024 against a stated public cloud industry average of 1.25 and 1.63 for on-premises data centres, citing IDC; AWS water use effectiveness 0.15 L per kWh in 2024; company-reported). Amazon, Seattle. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 6Microsoft (ed.), 2025 Environmental Data Fact Sheet (PDF; fiscal year ended 30 June 2024; Table 6 electricity consumed within the organisation 29,829,540 MWh in FY24 and 23,567,502 in FY23; Table 9 water consumption 5,807 ML in FY24 and 7,844 in FY23 after a new estimation approach; company-reported, section 1 reviewed by an external firm). Microsoft, Redmond. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 8Li, P., Yang, J., Islam, M.A. and Ren, S., Making AI Less Thirsty: Uncovering and Addressing the Secret Water Footprint of AI Models, arXiv:2304.03271, v1 April 2023, v5 March 2025 (abstract page; projection of 4.2 to 6.6 billion cubic metres of water withdrawal in 2027; accepted by Communications of the ACM per the page). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 21Google Cloud (ed.), Incident report for the Service Control outage of 12 June 2025 (status page; 10:51 to 18:18 PDT by the incident header; mini report gives different times; policy data with blank fields caused a null pointer crash in Service Control; operator report). Google, Mountain View. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 22Cloudflare (ed.), Cloudflare outage on November 18, 2025 (blog post; start 11:20 UTC; core traffic largely restored 14:30 UTC; full recovery 17:06 UTC; Bot Management feature file doubled in size and exceeded a limit of 200 features; not caused by a cyber attack, per the operator). Cloudflare, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-CLOUD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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