Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

11 min read0 figures5 tables30 notesNR-XTECH-CLOUD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Cloud is shared infrastructure with a physical footprint
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Shared control-plane fault with diverging sovereignty rules
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Cloud, edge and distributed platforms
    2. 8.2 Electricity, cooling and water
    3. 8.3 Grid, hardware and siting
    4. 8.4 Economy, market structure and workforce
    5. 8.5 Resilience, security and governance watch
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Cloud, edge and distributed platforms

Cloud services run on a small number of very large platforms, with an edge layer that is defined in specifications but not counted. Evidence is strongest for market revenue and weakest for the edge.

143USD billion

quarterly cloud infrastructure revenue, Q2 202610

43%

year-on-year growth, Q2 202610

750respondents

cloud native community survey, fall 202429

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Hyperscale cloudthree providers held 63% of infrastructure revenue; shares are an analyst estimate10Reported
Definitionsfive essential characteristics, three service models and four deployment models252627Reported
Edge computingspecifications published; sites, devices and energy not bound303233Inferred
Cloud native softwaretenth annual community survey, 750 respondents29Reported

Couplings

  • INF ↔ FIN platforms and revenue
  • INF → DAT services and data
  • GOV → INF rules and platforms

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • edge sites, devices and energy
  • provider-reported revenue on a common basis

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk
  • XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
  • XT-07 HPC and Advanced Computing

8.2Electricity, cooling and water

Data centres are a visible and growing share of electricity in some systems. Operators report efficient fleets and water figures, on methods that differ.

415TWh

global data centre electricity, 20241

4.4%

US share of electricity, 20233

22%

Ireland share of metered electricity, 20244

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Electricityabout 415 TWh in 2024; 945 TWh in the IEA 2030 base case1Reported
EfficiencyPUE of 1.09 (Google) and 1.15 (AWS), against baselines of 1.25 to 1.56579Reported
WaterMicrosoft 5,807 ML in fiscal 2024 after a method change; Google up 28%; AWS 0.15 L per kWh567Reported
Projectionmodelling preprint: 4.2 to 6.6 billion cubic metres of withdrawal in 20278Reported

Couplings

  • ENE ↔ INF facility power
  • WAT ↔ ENE cooling choice
  • INF → CLI electricity growth

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • site-level load on a common basis
  • comparable water metrics

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk
  • XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
  • XT-07 HPC and Advanced Computing

8.3Grid, hardware and siting

Growth depends on grid connection, permits and hardware. Public evidence on connection queues and hardware supply is thin in the sources read here.

22%

Ireland share of metered electricity, 20244

12months

proposed maximum permit procedure, as reported18

3times

proposed aim for EU data centre capacity within five to seven years, as reported18

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Grid connectionhigh share in Ireland; queues not bound4Reported
Siting and permitsEU proposal for acceleration zones and strategic projects18Reported
Regional growth rulesSingapore roadmap on growth and efficiency, cited without figures43Inferred
Hardware and mineralsdependence not bound here18Expert input

Couplings

  • ENE → INF grid share
  • GOV → INF permits
  • MIN → INF hardware

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • grid connection queues
  • hardware and mineral dependence

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk
  • XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
  • XT-07 HPC and Advanced Computing

8.4Economy, market structure and workforce

The cloud market is concentrated and growing fast, and regulators now review it. Workforce numbers are the thin part of the evidence.

63%

top three share of cloud revenue, Q2 202610

2027year

EU switching charges end16

7.8EUR billion

investment stated by AWS for its EU sovereign cloud, a company announcement23

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Market structureAmazon 28%, Microsoft 20%, Google 15% in Q2 202610Reported
Competition reviewUK final decision on 31 July 2025; DMA investigations from 18 November 2025111213Reported
Switchingcharges removed from 12 January 202716Reported
Workforceno figure bound28Expert input

Couplings

  • FIN → INF capacity
  • GOV → FIN market rules
  • HLT → INF workforce

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • workforce size and skills gaps
  • revenue outside infrastructure services

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk
  • XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
  • XT-07 HPC and Advanced Computing

8.5Resilience, security and governance watch

The nearest risk of shared platforms is a fault that spreads. Rules on operational resilience, authorisation, switching and sovereignty are being set at the same time.

14.5hours

AWS us-east-1 event, October 202520

7.5hours

Google Cloud incident, June 202521

3.2hours

Cloudflare event until core traffic restored, November 202522

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Operator eventsthree large events in 2025, each traced to an internal fault by its operator202122Reported
Financial sector oversightDORA applies from 17 January 2025; no designations on the page read1738Reported
AuthorisationFedRAMP 20x in its wide-scale adoption phase in 202624Reported
Sovereigntya company EU sovereign cloud and a proposed EU autonomy framework1823Reported

Couplings

  • INF → DAT shared-platform faults
  • GOV → DAT switching and location rules
  • GOV → TRD sovereignty rules

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • dependence of public services
  • customer impact of events

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk
  • XT-06 Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute
  • XT-07 HPC and Advanced Computing

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 10Synergy Research Group (ed.), Q2 Cloud Market Passes $143 Billion; Highest Growth Rate in Eight Years (release of 30 July 2026; Amazon 28%, Microsoft 20%, Google 15%; quarterly revenue USD 143.4 billion; growth 43%; definition IaaS, PaaS and hosted private cloud; industry analyst). Synergy Research Group, Reno. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 29Cloud Native Computing Foundation (ed.), CNCF Annual Survey 2024 (report page; tenth annual survey; 750 respondents in fall 2024; Kubernetes percentage not on the page). CNCF, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 25NIST (ed.), The NIST Definition of Cloud Computing, NIST SP 800-145 (publication page; September 2011; five essential characteristics, three service models and four deployment models). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 26NIST (ed.), Cloud Computing Synopsis and Recommendations, NIST SP 800-146 (publication page; May 2012). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 27NIST (ed.), NIST Cloud Computing Reference Architecture, NIST SP 500-292 (publication page; 8 September 2011). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 30ETSI (ed.), Multi-access Edge Computing (technology page; industry specification group; news item of 31 October 2025 on Phase 4 specifications and a white paper; no counts on the page). European Telecommunications Standards Institute, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Satyanarayanan, M., The emergence of edge computing, Computer 50(1), 30 to 39, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shi, W., Cao, J., Zhang, Q., Li, Y. and Xu, L., Edge computing: vision and challenges, IEEE Internet of Things Journal 3(5), 637 to 646, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 1UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (data centres about 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of global electricity; about 945 TWh in the 2030 base case; about 1,200 TWh in 2035 with a range of 700 to 1,700), taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned access errors. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 3US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE releases new report evaluating increase in electricity demand from data centres (20 December 2024; about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023; 6.7 to 12% projected for 2028; 58 TWh in 2014 and 176 TWh in 2023). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 4Central Statistics Office (ed.), Data Centres Metered Electricity Consumption 2024 (statistical release of 10 June 2025; 22% of metered electricity in 2024, 21% in 2023; the GWh table was not in the content read). Central Statistics Office, Cork. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 5Google (ed.), 2025 Environmental Report (PDF; fiscal year 2024; data centre electricity consumption up 27%, data centre energy emissions down 12%, fleet PUE 1.09 against a stated industry average of 1.56, water consumption up 28%; company-reported). Google, Mountain View. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 7Amazon (ed.), 2024 Amazon Sustainability Report (PDF; AWS global PUE 1.15 in 2024 against a stated public cloud industry average of 1.25 and 1.63 for on-premises data centres, citing IDC; AWS water use effectiveness 0.15 L per kWh in 2024; company-reported). Amazon, Seattle. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 9UNVERIFIED, not opened: Uptime Institute (ed.), Global Data Center Survey 2025 (average PUE 1.54; power the cause of 45% of outages), taken from search-result summaries; the survey page returned an access error. Uptime Institute, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 6Microsoft (ed.), 2025 Environmental Data Fact Sheet (PDF; fiscal year ended 30 June 2024; Table 6 electricity consumed within the organisation 29,829,540 MWh in FY24 and 23,567,502 in FY23; Table 9 water consumption 5,807 ML in FY24 and 7,844 in FY23 after a new estimation approach; company-reported, section 1 reviewed by an external firm). Microsoft, Redmond. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 8Li, P., Yang, J., Islam, M.A. and Ren, S., Making AI Less Thirsty: Uncovering and Addressing the Secret Water Footprint of AI Models, arXiv:2304.03271, v1 April 2023, v5 March 2025 (abstract page; projection of 4.2 to 6.6 billion cubic metres of water withdrawal in 2027; accepted by Communications of the ACM per the page). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 18Euronews (ed.), EU Cloud and AI Development Act gets mixed reception (news article of 22 June 2026; three pillars; aim to triple European data centre capacity in five to seven years; acceleration zones within six months; 12-month maximum permit procedure; four assurance levels; reactions; press report of the proposal, not the proposal text). Euronews, Lyon. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Infocomm Media Development Authority (ed.), Green Data Centre Roadmap, Singapore, cited from memory; the page returned no content and no figure is used. IMDA, Singapore. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 16European Commission (ed.), Data Act explained (policy page; switching charges including data egress charges removed from 12 January 2027; transitional period 11 January 2024 to 12 January 2027; notice period not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 23Amazon Web Services (ed.), Opening the AWS European Sovereign Cloud (blog announcement of 14 January 2026; Brandenburg region; investment of EUR 7.8 billion stated; vendor announcement, weak evidence). Amazon Web Services, Seattle. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 11UK Competition and Markets Authority (ed.), Cloud services market investigation (case page; final decision published 31 July 2025; recommends prioritising strategic market status investigations of Microsoft and AWS; board decision expected in the first quarter of 2026; the decision documents were not opened). Competition and Markets Authority, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 12European Commission (ed.), Commission opens market investigations into cloud computing services under the Digital Markets Act (announcement of 18 November 2025; two investigations on whether AWS and Microsoft Azure should be designated and one on whether the DMA fits cloud). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 13The Register (ed.), Brussels eyes AWS, Azure for gatekeeper tag in cloud clampdown (news article of 18 November 2025; possible obligations and fines up to 10% of worldwide turnover; trade press, secondary). Situation Publishing, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 28Armbrust, M. et al., Above the Clouds: A Berkeley View of Cloud Computing, Technical Report UCB/EECS-2009-28, 10 February 2009 (report page and abstract). University of California, Berkeley. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 20Amazon Web Services (ed.), Summary of the Amazon DynamoDB Service Disruption in the Northern Virginia (US-EAST-1) Region (post-event summary; 19 October 11:48 PM to 20 October 2:20 PM PDT; latent race condition in the DNS management system for the regional endpoint; services and times listed; operator report). Amazon Web Services, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  26. 21Google Cloud (ed.), Incident report for the Service Control outage of 12 June 2025 (status page; 10:51 to 18:18 PDT by the incident header; mini report gives different times; policy data with blank fields caused a null pointer crash in Service Control; operator report). Google, Mountain View. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  27. 22Cloudflare (ed.), Cloudflare outage on November 18, 2025 (blog post; start 11:20 UTC; core traffic largely restored 14:30 UTC; full recovery 17:06 UTC; Bot Management feature file doubled in size and exceeded a limit of 200 features; not caused by a cyber attack, per the operator). Cloudflare, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  28. 17European Securities and Markets Authority (ed.), Digital Operational Resilience Act (page; applies from 17 January 2025; lists materials on critical ICT third-party provider designation; no designations on the page). ESMA, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  29. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2022/2554 on digital operational resilience for the financial sector (DORA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory; the ESMA page [17] was read instead. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  30. 24US General Services Administration (ed.), FedRAMP 20x (programme page; announced March 2025; phase 1 26 submissions; first pilot authorisations 6 March 2026; phase 3 wide-scale adoption active; new Rev5 submissions stop 11 June 2027, a future date that may change). FedRAMP, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-CLOUD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskExponential Technology

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices