Readings from the other desks

The cloud baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

16 min read0 figures8 tables38 notesNR-XTECH-CLOUD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
GRA Capital Readiness	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Standards Progress	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Academy Capability	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Index Measurement	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading cloud and distributed computing as shared infrastructure with a measurable physical footprint. Electricity use is reported and rising, the market is concentrated, and large events have been traced to internal faults. Evidence is strongest for single events and dated rules, and weakest for dependence, water and edge.

ENE-001 · ENE-002 · INF-011 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the cloud arrives as an app that stops working or a headline about energy and water. The baseline asks that public debate separate measured use from projections and company claims, and keep the dependence of public services in view.

ENE-003 · INF-011 · WAT-007

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Revenue is concentrated, switching charges end in 2027, and recovery from large events falls on customers as well as providers¹⁰¹⁶. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-008 · GOV-010

NEXUS

Synthesis

Cloud is well described by single events and dated rules and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should map dependence of public services, put operator metrics on a common basis and test exit before the next large event.

SYS-012 · C-01 · C-03

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for cloud. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability exist?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests show?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What changed in the year, and what renews?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Nexus Standards and Academy	technology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capability	technology editorial board

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Cloud services run on facilities owned by a few companies and used by almost every sector. That makes them infrastructure in effect, and the evidence on dependence is the thinnest part of the picture.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Shared infrastructure, private operators

Operators report PUE and water use, and each picks its own baseline. A common basis would show whether growth is limited by grids, water or money.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Footprints need a common basis

The Data Act, DORA, the DMA reviews and the Cloud and AI Development Act proposal address different parts of one market. Their order and overlap will shape 2027.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Rules arrive in sequence

Edge computing is defined in specifications and papers, but sites, devices and energy use are not counted in the sources read here.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

The edge is the blind spot

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 cloud readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 cloud readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	Cloud risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five global system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	national chapters in preparation	national chapters
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
PUBLISHED
PROPOSAL
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
NIST SP 800-145, 800-146 and 500-292²⁵²⁶²⁷	NIST	US, used globally	PUBLISHED 2011 AND 2012	cloud definition and architecture
ISO/IEC 22123-1⁴²	ISO and IEC	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	cloud vocabulary
ISO/IEC 30134-2⁴¹	ISO and IEC	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	PUE definition
EU Data Act¹⁵¹⁶³⁷	European Union	EU	IN FORCE · APPLIES FROM 2025	switching and data access
DORA¹⁷³⁸	European Union	EU financial sector	IN FORCE · APPLIES FROM 2025	ICT third-party oversight
Energy Efficiency Directive data centre reporting¹⁹³⁵³⁶	European Union	EU	IN FORCE	energy and water reporting
FedRAMP 20x²⁴	US GSA	US federal	PROGRAMME ACTIVE	cloud authorisation
ETSI MEC specifications³⁰	ETSI	Europe	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	edge computing
Cloud and AI Development Act¹⁸	European Commission	EU	PROPOSAL 2026	capacity, permits, sovereignty
Green Data Centre Roadmap⁴³	Singapore IMDA	Singapore	PUBLISHED	data centre growth and efficiency

Changed since 2024

The Commission proposed the Cloud and AI Development Act in June 2026¹⁸
FedRAMP 20x entered its wide-scale adoption phase in 2026²⁴
The Commission opened DMA cloud market investigations on 18 November 2025¹²

To watch in 2027

The EU data centre energy efficiency package planned for the third quarter of 2026¹⁹
The end of EU switching charges on 12 January 2027¹⁶
Designation of critical ICT third-party providers under DORA¹⁷³⁸

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers cloud assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about cloud, edge and distributed computing as infrastructure and its couplings?
Sources searched: foundational papers and standards; regulators and institutions; operator reports; national laboratories and statistics offices
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Table 6.5Foundational papers and definitions
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Armbrust et al.²⁸	technical report	2009	framework	cloud economics and obstacles
NIST SP 800-145²⁵	NIST	2011	framework	definition
NIST SP 800-146²⁶	NIST	2012	context	synopsis and recommendations
NIST SP 500-292²⁷	NIST	2011	context	reference architecture
Barroso, Clidaras and Hölzle³⁴	book	2018	context	warehouse-scale computers
Masanet et al.³¹	journal article	2020	context	energy estimates
Li et al.⁸	preprint	2023	supports	water projection

Table 6.6Edge and systems literature
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Satyanarayanan³²	journal article	2017	framework	edge computing
Shi et al.³³	journal article	2016	framework	edge vision
CNCF annual survey²⁹	foundation survey	2024	context	cloud native adoption
ETSI MEC³⁰	ETSI	2025	context	edge specifications
ISO/IEC 22123-1⁴²	ISO and IEC	2023	framework	vocabulary

Table 6.7Standards, policy and regulation
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
EU Data Act pages¹⁵¹⁶	European Commission	2025	supports	switching rules
DORA page¹⁷	ESMA	2025	supports	oversight timing
CMA market investigation¹¹	UK CMA	2025	supports	competition review
DMA cloud investigations¹²	European Commission	2025	supports	competition review
FedRAMP 20x²⁴	US GSA	2026	context	authorisation reform

Table 6.8Operator, market and energy reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Energy and AI¹	IEA	2025	supports	global electricity
US data centre report²³	LBNL and DOE	2024	supports	US electricity
Metered electricity⁴	Irish CSO	2025	supports	grid share
Environmental reports⁵⁶⁷	Google · Microsoft · Amazon	2025	context	company-reported
Cloud market release¹⁰	Synergy Research	2026	supports	market shares
Global Data Center Survey⁹	Uptime Institute	2025	context	PUE and outages

Where the evidence agrees

Data centre electricity use is rising and is a visible share of some grids¹³⁴
Cloud markets are concentrated and under regulatory review¹⁰¹¹¹²
Large events trace to internal faults at operators²⁰²¹²²

Where it is unsettled

How fast data centre electricity use will grow, and how much is AI¹²
How operator PUE and water figures compare on a common basis⁵⁶⁷⁹
How far public services depend on a few providers²⁰²¹

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

10Synergy Research Group (ed.), Q2 Cloud Market Passes $143 Billion; Highest Growth Rate in Eight Years (release of 30 July 2026; Amazon 28%, Microsoft 20%, Google 15%; quarterly revenue USD 143.4 billion; growth 43%; definition IaaS, PaaS and hosted private cloud; industry analyst). Synergy Research Group, Reno. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16European Commission (ed.), Data Act explained (policy page; switching charges including data egress charges removed from 12 January 2027; transitional period 11 January 2024 to 12 January 2027; notice period not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25NIST (ed.), The NIST Definition of Cloud Computing, NIST SP 800-145 (publication page; September 2011; five essential characteristics, three service models and four deployment models). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26NIST (ed.), Cloud Computing Synopsis and Recommendations, NIST SP 800-146 (publication page; May 2012). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27NIST (ed.), NIST Cloud Computing Reference Architecture, NIST SP 500-292 (publication page; 8 September 2011). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO and IEC (eds.), ISO/IEC 22123-1 Cloud computing, part 1, vocabulary, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO and IEC (eds.), ISO/IEC 30134-2 Information technology, data centres, key performance indicators, part 2, power usage effectiveness (PUE), cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15European Commission (ed.), Data Act (policy page; applicable from 12 September 2025; entered into force in January 2024). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/2854 (Data Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; the page returned no content, and the policy pages [15] [16] were read instead. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17European Securities and Markets Authority (ed.), Digital Operational Resilience Act (page; applies from 17 January 2025; lists materials on critical ICT third-party provider designation; no designations on the page). ESMA, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2022/2554 on digital operational resilience for the financial sector (DORA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory; the ESMA page [17] was read instead. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19European Commission (ed.), Energy Efficiency Directive (policy page; states a data centre energy efficiency package planned for the third quarter of 2026 and links to reporting of data centre energy consumption; no threshold or dates on the page). Directorate-General for Energy, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2023/1791 on energy efficiency, Article 12 on data centre reporting, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; the page returned no content. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/1364 on the first phase of the establishment of a common Union rating scheme for data centres, 2024, cited from memory; the page returned no content. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24US General Services Administration (ed.), FedRAMP 20x (programme page; announced March 2025; phase 1 26 submissions; first pilot authorisations 6 March 2026; phase 3 wide-scale adoption active; new Rev5 submissions stop 11 June 2027, a future date that may change). FedRAMP, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30ETSI (ed.), Multi-access Edge Computing (technology page; industry specification group; news item of 31 October 2025 on Phase 4 specifications and a white paper; no counts on the page). European Telecommunications Standards Institute, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18Euronews (ed.), EU Cloud and AI Development Act gets mixed reception (news article of 22 June 2026; three pillars; aim to triple European data centre capacity in five to seven years; acceleration zones within six months; 12-month maximum permit procedure; four assurance levels; reactions; press report of the proposal, not the proposal text). Euronews, Lyon. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Infocomm Media Development Authority (ed.), Green Data Centre Roadmap, Singapore, cited from memory; the page returned no content and no figure is used. IMDA, Singapore. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12European Commission (ed.), Commission opens market investigations into cloud computing services under the Digital Markets Act (announcement of 18 November 2025; two investigations on whether AWS and Microsoft Azure should be designated and one on whether the DMA fits cloud). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28Armbrust, M. et al., Above the Clouds: A Berkeley View of Cloud Computing, Technical Report UCB/EECS-2009-28, 10 February 2009 (report page and abstract). University of California, Berkeley. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Barroso, L.A., Clidaras, J. and Hölzle, U., The Datacenter as a Computer: Designing Warehouse-Scale Machines, third edition, Morgan and Claypool, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Masanet, E., Shehabi, A., Lei, N., Smith, S. and Koomey, J., Recalibrating global data centre energy-use estimates, Science 367, 984 to 986, 2020, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8Li, P., Yang, J., Islam, M.A. and Ren, S., Making AI Less Thirsty: Uncovering and Addressing the Secret Water Footprint of AI Models, arXiv:2304.03271, v1 April 2023, v5 March 2025 (abstract page; projection of 4.2 to 6.6 billion cubic metres of water withdrawal in 2027; accepted by Communications of the ACM per the page). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Satyanarayanan, M., The emergence of edge computing, Computer 50(1), 30 to 39, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shi, W., Cao, J., Zhang, Q., Li, Y. and Xu, L., Edge computing: vision and challenges, IEEE Internet of Things Journal 3(5), 637 to 646, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29Cloud Native Computing Foundation (ed.), CNCF Annual Survey 2024 (report page; tenth annual survey; 750 respondents in fall 2024; Kubernetes percentage not on the page). CNCF, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11UK Competition and Markets Authority (ed.), Cloud services market investigation (case page; final decision published 31 July 2025; recommends prioritising strategic market status investigations of Microsoft and AWS; board decision expected in the first quarter of 2026; the decision documents were not opened). Competition and Markets Authority, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (data centres about 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of global electricity; about 945 TWh in the 2030 base case; about 1,200 TWh in 2035 with a range of 700 to 1,700), taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned access errors. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2Shehabi, A. et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, published 19 December 2024, DOI 10.71468/P1WC7Q (publication page; the page gives authors and a scenario range to 2028 but no figures; figures read in the DOE summary [3]). Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.71468/P1WC7Q back
3US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE releases new report evaluating increase in electricity demand from data centres (20 December 2024; about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023; 6.7 to 12% projected for 2028; 58 TWh in 2014 and 176 TWh in 2023). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4Central Statistics Office (ed.), Data Centres Metered Electricity Consumption 2024 (statistical release of 10 June 2025; 22% of metered electricity in 2024, 21% in 2023; the GWh table was not in the content read). Central Statistics Office, Cork. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5Google (ed.), 2025 Environmental Report (PDF; fiscal year 2024; data centre electricity consumption up 27%, data centre energy emissions down 12%, fleet PUE 1.09 against a stated industry average of 1.56, water consumption up 28%; company-reported). Google, Mountain View. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Microsoft (ed.), 2025 Environmental Data Fact Sheet (PDF; fiscal year ended 30 June 2024; Table 6 electricity consumed within the organisation 29,829,540 MWh in FY24 and 23,567,502 in FY23; Table 9 water consumption 5,807 ML in FY24 and 7,844 in FY23 after a new estimation approach; company-reported, section 1 reviewed by an external firm). Microsoft, Redmond. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Amazon (ed.), 2024 Amazon Sustainability Report (PDF; AWS global PUE 1.15 in 2024 against a stated public cloud industry average of 1.25 and 1.63 for on-premises data centres, citing IDC; AWS water use effectiveness 0.15 L per kWh in 2024; company-reported). Amazon, Seattle. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9UNVERIFIED, not opened: Uptime Institute (ed.), Global Data Center Survey 2025 (average PUE 1.54; power the cause of 45% of outages), taken from search-result summaries; the survey page returned an access error. Uptime Institute, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Amazon Web Services (ed.), Summary of the Amazon DynamoDB Service Disruption in the Northern Virginia (US-EAST-1) Region (post-event summary; 19 October 11:48 PM to 20 October 2:20 PM PDT; latent race condition in the DNS management system for the regional endpoint; services and times listed; operator report). Amazon Web Services, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21Google Cloud (ed.), Incident report for the Service Control outage of 12 June 2025 (status page; 10:51 to 18:18 PDT by the incident header; mini report gives different times; policy data with blank fields caused a null pointer crash in Service Control; operator report). Google, Mountain View. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22Cloudflare (ed.), Cloudflare outage on November 18, 2025 (blog post; start 11:20 UTC; core traffic largely restored 14:30 UTC; full recovery 17:06 UTC; Bot Management feature file doubled in size and exceeded a limit of 200 features; not caused by a cyber attack, per the operator). Cloudflare, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Readings from the other desks. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Cloud, Edge and Distributed Computing (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-CLOUD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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