Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the advanced nuclear baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

8 min read1 figure0 tables24 notesNR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Advanced nuclear is firm infrastructure and a delivery test
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Infrastructure
    3. 2.3 Governance
    4. 2.4 Minerals
    5. 2.5 Trade
    6. 2.6 Finance
    7. 2.7 WAS
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Fuel supply gap while first-of-a-kind units are delayed
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

The US NRC issued a construction permit in March 2026 for the Natrium reactor at Kemmerer, Wyoming: a 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor with a molten-salt storage system that can raise output to 500 MW.

Figure 2.1Natrium reactor ratings, 2026
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Base output (MWe)345
Output with storage (MW)500

Source: US Department of Energy release of March 20268. The release gives the boosted figure in megawatts, not MWe.

Implication

A commercial non-light-water power reactor has passed construction licensing in the United States. The NRC review ran 18 months against an initial 27-month schedule9. The permit does not cover operation: an operating licence application is still needed, and completion is expected in 20309.

What would move it

The operating licence application, first fuel load, delivered cost and the date of first power would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

    The world fleet had 443 operable reactors with 405,667 MWe of net capacity in 2025, supplying about 9% of world electricity, and 80 reactors with 87,813 MWe gross were under construction.12

  2. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

    The US Department of Energy reported that four DOE-authorized advanced test reactors reached zero-power criticality by 4 July 2026, against a goal of three, in company and agency announcements.67

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

    The NRC issued a construction permit in March 2026 for the 345 MWe Natrium sodium-cooled reactor at Kemmerer, Wyoming, after an 18-month review against an initial 27-month schedule; operation needs a separate licence.89

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-011

    First-of-a-kind small and advanced units are in construction or planning in several countries, including a BWRX-300 at Darlington with operation expected in 2030 and a three-unit Rolls-Royce SMR contract at Wylfa signed in April 2026.131417181939

2.3Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-004

    The NRC published a final rule for 10 CFR Part 53, an optional risk-informed, performance-based and technology-inclusive licensing framework, in 2026.1037

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-005

    Executive orders of 23 May 2025 set goals of 400 GW of US nuclear capacity by 2050, 5 GW of uprates and 10 large reactors under construction by 2030, and an 18-month limit on new reactor licensing decisions.34

2.4Minerals

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-006

    High-assay low-enriched uranium is enriched to 5% up to less than 20% U-235, DOE estimates US demand could reach 50 tonnes a year by 2035, and the Piketon plant had enriched more than 100 kg by late 2024.11

2.5Trade

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-007

    World enrichment capacity was 68.076 million SWU a year in 2025, with Rosatom holding about 42.8%, and the US prohibited imports of Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024, subject to waivers.1230

2.6Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008

    Recent large reactors ran far over first estimates: Vogtle 3 and 4 at USD 30.34 billion in May 2022 against an initial USD 14 billion, and Hinkley Point C at GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices in February 2026.151720

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

    A peer-reviewed study of 15 small modular reactor concepts found that none competed economically with existing renewables on its assumptions, and that results depend on the production theory and parameters chosen.2526

2.7WAS

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAS-010

    A peer-reviewed study of three small reactor designs found that water-, molten-salt- and sodium-cooled units would raise the volume of waste needing management by factors of 2 to 30, and argued that volume is not the key metric.27

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a gap between announced schedules and delivered first-of-a-kind units, with HALEU and enrichment supply as the binding input. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), NRC issues construction permit for first Natrium plant (news report, 5 March 2026; 18-month review against 27 months initially; completion expected 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the World Today (information library page; 443 operable reactors, 405,667 MWe net, about 9% of world electricity, 80 under construction with 87,813 MWe gross; electricity data for 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 2UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, 2025 edition (377 GW at end of 2024; high case 992 GW and low case 561 GW in 2050), taken from search-result summaries of trade reports; the IAEA page was not retrieved. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 6American Nuclear Society (ed.), The deadline arrives: checking in on the Reactor Pilot Program (news article, 2 July 2026; criticality by Antares 4 June, Valar 18 June, Deployable Energy 1 July; ten companies selected in August 2025; status of the remaining participants). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 13World Nuclear Association (ed.), Small Nuclear Power Reactors (information library page; definition of 300 MWe equivalent or less; microreactors under 20 MWe; the page lists no projects). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 14World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Canada (country profile; Darlington BWRX-300, construction licence April 2025, first nuclear concrete 26 June 2026, operation expected 2030, CAD 20.9 billion for four units; page lists 316 MWe gross and describes 300 MWe). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 18World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in China (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 65 reactors, 65,085 MWe operable; 39 under construction; HTR-PM commercial operation December 2023; Linglong One commissioning expected during 2026; 110 GWe target by 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 19World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in South Korea (country profile; 26 operable units, 25,609 MWe; i-SMR 170 MWe design, standard design approval application February 2026, approval targeted 2028; Barakah units in operation, last in September 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ontario Power Generation (ed.), Darlington New Nuclear Project page, the page returned forbidden; Darlington figures are taken from the World Nuclear Association country profile. OPG, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 10US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), 10 CFR Part 53 rulemaking page (final rule 91 FR 15696; risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive framework; background in NEIMA and the ADVANCE Act). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: ADVANCE Act of 2024, Public Law 118-67, United States Congress, cited from memory without a figure; the NRC Part 53 page names the Act as background. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 3The White House (ed.), Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Executive Order 14300, 23 May 2025 (goal of 400 GW by 2050 from about 100 GW in 2024; 18-month limit for new reactor decisions; 1-year limit for continued operation). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 4The White House (ed.), Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base, Executive Order 14302, 23 May 2025 (5 GW of uprates; 10 new large reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030; fuel, enrichment and spent fuel directions). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 11US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), What is high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)? (article of 3 December 2024; enrichment 5% to less than 20% U-235; demand could reach 50 metric tons a year by 2035; Piketon more than 100 kg enriched). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 12World Nuclear Association (ed.), Uranium Enrichment (information library page; capacity table from the WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025: 68.076 million SWU in 2025, Rosatom 29.133, Urenco 17.300, CNNC 13.789 estimated, Orano 7.500; US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD NEA and IAEA (eds.), Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. OECD NEA, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 20World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in France (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 57 operable reactors; EPR2 six units, EUR 72.8 billion estimate of December 2025; Flamanville 3 grid connection December 2024, EUR 13.2 billion estimate of December 2022). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 25Steigerwald, B., Weibezahn, J., Slowik, M. and von Hirschhausen, C., Uncertainties in estimating production costs of future nuclear technologies: a model-based analysis of small modular reactors, Energy 281, 128204, 2023 (abstract page read). Elsevier, Amsterdam. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 26Steigerwald, B. et al., Future nuclear fission reactors: uncertainties, the effect of parameter choice and an application to small modular reactor concepts, Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal 2, 217, 2023 (abstract page read; 15 concepts; none competes with existing renewables on its assumptions). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 27Krall, L.M., Macfarlane, A.M. and Ewing, R.C., Nuclear waste from small modular reactors, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(23), e2111833119, 2022 (open-access full text, abstract and conclusions read; waste volume factors of 2 to 30; three designs). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskExponential Technology

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices