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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables15 notesNR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Advanced nuclear is firm infrastructure and a delivery test
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Fuel supply gap while first-of-a-kind units are delayed
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

INF · Fleet

Operable reactors, world

443reactors

405,667 MWe net, about 9% of world electricity.

Reported2025WNA1

INF · Demonstration

Reactors critical under the DOE pilot program

4test reactors

zero-power tests, by 4 July 2026.

Reported2026DOE7

INF · Licensing

Natrium reactor under a construction permit

345MWe

sodium-cooled; storage lifts output to 500 MW.

Reported2026DOE8

MIN · Fuel

DOE estimate of US HALEU demand by 2035

50tonnes a year

an estimate of what demand could reach.

Reported2024DOE11

TRD · Supply

Rosatom share of world enrichment capacity, 2025

42.8%

derived from the capacity table, method (1).

Estimated2025WNA12

FIN · Cost

Vogtle 3 and 4 total cost estimate, May 2022

30.34USD billion

against an initial estimate of 14.

Reported2022WNA15

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through advanced nuclear, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries advanced nuclear risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATCooling-water use and site siting of new reactors were not bound in the sources opened.ENE → WATExpert input EQL 1
ENEThe core system: 443 operable reactors, 405,667 MWe, about 9% of world electricity, and 80 under construction.the core systemReported EQL 4
FOONo documented coupling at baseline; process-heat and desalination uses are not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
HLTNo documented coupling at baseline; an isotope test reactor reached criticality in 2026 but isotope supply is not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
BIONo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
CLILow-carbon generation is the climate role; life-cycle emission figures were not opened.ENE → CLIExpert input EQL 1
INFConstruction, licensing and first-of-a-kind delivery: a construction permit, test criticality and one planned unit in construction in Canada.ENE ↔ INFReported EQL 4
FINRecent large units ran far over first estimates; small-reactor costs are modelled and contested.FIN → ENEReported EQL 4
DATNo documented coupling at baseline; digital controls and records are not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
AICNo documented coupling opened at baseline; data-centre supply agreements were not opened.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
MINUranium, enrichment and HALEU: demand estimates are far above current supply of HALEU.MIN → ENEReported EQL 3
TRDEnrichment capacity is concentrated and the US restricts Russian low-enriched uranium imports.ENE ↔ TRDReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on advanced nuclear, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemfission couples to energy, fuel supply and financedelivery against scheduleTHIN
GS-01Watercooling-water use of new sites not boundsite sitingTHIN
GS-02Energyfleet of 443 reactors and 80 under construction1first-of-a-kind deliveryGOOD
GS-03Foodno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-04Healthno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-05Financecost overruns on large units1517financing of first-of-a-kind unitsPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentexport projects reported19access to fuel and financeTHIN
GS-07Climatelife-cycle emissions not openednone documentedTHIN
GS-08Disasterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-09Infrastructuresites, repositories and fabrication2122long project lead timesPARTIAL
GS-10Citiesno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-14Policyexecutive orders and the Part 53 rule3410goals against deliveryPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencepeer-reviewed cost and waste studies2527common benchmarksPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the World Today (information library page; 443 operable reactors, 405,667 MWe net, about 9% of world electricity, 80 under construction with 87,813 MWe gross; electricity data for 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 11US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), What is high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)? (article of 3 December 2024; enrichment 5% to less than 20% U-235; demand could reach 50 metric tons a year by 2035; Piketon more than 100 kg enriched). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 12World Nuclear Association (ed.), Uranium Enrichment (information library page; capacity table from the WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025: 68.076 million SWU in 2025, Rosatom 29.133, Urenco 17.300, CNNC 13.789 estimated, Orano 7.500; US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 19World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in South Korea (country profile; 26 operable units, 25,609 MWe; i-SMR 170 MWe design, standard design approval application February 2026, approval targeted 2028; Barakah units in operation, last in September 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Finland (country profile; Olkiluoto 3 contract of EUR 3.2 billion for mid-2009, regular production April 2023; Onkalo operating licence granted October 2026 valid to the end of 2070, after the 30 September evidence close). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 22World Nuclear Association (ed.), Storage and Disposal of Radioactive Wastes (information library page; Finland, Sweden, France and US repository milestones; Cigéo commissioning planned for 2050; Yucca Mountain suspended). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 3The White House (ed.), Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Executive Order 14300, 23 May 2025 (goal of 400 GW by 2050 from about 100 GW in 2024; 18-month limit for new reactor decisions; 1-year limit for continued operation). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 4The White House (ed.), Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base, Executive Order 14302, 23 May 2025 (5 GW of uprates; 10 new large reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030; fuel, enrichment and spent fuel directions). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 10US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), 10 CFR Part 53 rulemaking page (final rule 91 FR 15696; risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive framework; background in NEIMA and the ADVANCE Act). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 25Steigerwald, B., Weibezahn, J., Slowik, M. and von Hirschhausen, C., Uncertainties in estimating production costs of future nuclear technologies: a model-based analysis of small modular reactors, Energy 281, 128204, 2023 (abstract page read). Elsevier, Amsterdam. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 27Krall, L.M., Macfarlane, A.M. and Ewing, R.C., Nuclear waste from small modular reactors, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(23), e2111833119, 2022 (open-access full text, abstract and conclusions read; waste volume factors of 2 to 30; three designs). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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