Readings from the other desks
The advanced nuclear baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Advanced nuclear is firm infrastructure and a delivery test
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Fuel supply gap while first-of-a-kind units are delayed
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 advanced nuclear readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Standards Progress | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading advanced nuclear as firm infrastructure at baseline and as a delivery test for the next decade. Licensing has moved, test reactors have reached criticality, and the operating record, delivered cost and fuel supply are unproven. Evidence is strongest for the fleet and for permits, and weakest for cost, waste and fuel volumes.
INF-001 · INF-003 · FIN-008 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people the story arrives as a headline about a test reactor, an executive order or a data-centre deal. The baseline asks that public debate separate permits, tests and plans from operating plants, and keep waste and cost in view.
INF-002 · GOV-005 · WAS-010
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Recent large units ran far over first estimates, and small-reactor costs are modelled and contested. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-008 · FIN-009
NEXUS
Synthesis
Advanced nuclear is well described by permits and announcements and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind fuel supply, track delivered units against schedules and compare cost and waste on a common basis.
SYS-012 · Q-01 · Q-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for advanced nuclear. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Nexus Standards and Academy | technology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capability | technology editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Advanced nuclear is a mature fleet and a set of unproven designs. The first is slow and material; the second is a delivery question that the next five years will answer. Keeping them apart avoids both hype and dismissal.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Two stories, one technology
A construction permit, a zero-power test and an operating plant carry different weight. This edition labels each, and asks for operating records before capability is claimed.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Separate permits, tests and plants
Enrichment capacity is concentrated and HALEU is scarce against estimated demand. A published supply path by year would show whether delivery is limited by fuel, money or licensing.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Fuel is the quiet constraint
Recent large units ran far over first estimates, and modelled small-reactor costs are contested. Delivered costs of the first advanced units will settle more than any forecast.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Cost is the open question
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 advanced nuclear readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Advanced nuclear risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- PUBLISHED
- DRAFT
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 CFR Part 53 final rule10 | US Nuclear Regulatory Commission | US | PUBLISHED 2026 | licensing framework |
| Executive Order 143003 | White House | US | PUBLISHED 2025 | licensing reform and goals |
| Executive Order 143015 | White House | US | PUBLISHED 2025 | test reactor goal |
| Executive Order 143024 | White House | US | PUBLISHED 2025 | industrial base and fuel |
| ADVANCE Act37 | US Congress | US | IN FORCE 2024 | licensing statute |
| Prohibition on Russian low-enriched uranium imports12 | US government | US | IN FORCE FROM AUGUST 2024 | fuel supply |
| CNSC construction licence for Darlington14 | Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission | Canada | PUBLISHED APRIL 2025 | construction |
| i-SMR standard design approval application19 | Nuclear Safety and Security Commission | Korea | IN REVIEW FROM FEBRUARY 2026 | design approval |
| Generation IV International Forum40 | GIF member states | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | six reactor concepts |
| EU taxonomy delegated act41 | European Commission | EU | IN FORCE 2022 | finance classification |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers advanced nuclear assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about advanced nuclear and next-generation fission and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed journals; regulator and agency pages; executive orders and rules; industry association and intergovernmental overviews
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steigerwald et al.25 | journal article | 2023 | supports | small-reactor cost uncertainty |
| Steigerwald et al.26 | journal article | 2023 | supports | fifteen concepts compared |
| Krall, Macfarlane and Ewing27 | journal article | 2022 | supports | waste volumes |
| IPCC Working Group III36 | assessment report | 2022 | context | mitigation options |
| UNECE life-cycle assessment35 | assessment report | 2021 | context | life-cycle emissions |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOE Natrium permit release8 | US Department of Energy | 2026 | supports | permit |
| DOE pilot program release7 | US Department of Energy | 2026 | supports | test reactors |
| DOE HALEU page11 | US Department of Energy | 2024 | supports | fuel |
| DOE advanced reactor demonstration page24 | US Department of Energy | 2025 | context | demonstration funding |
| NRC NuScale design approval page31 | US NRC | 2025 | context | design approval |
| NRC Kairos Hermes page38 | US NRC | 2025 | context | test reactor permit |
| CNSC and OPG Darlington page39 | Ontario Power Generation | 2026 | context | Canadian unit |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Executive Order 143003 | White House | 2025 | supports | licensing reform |
| Executive Order 143024 | White House | 2025 | supports | industrial base |
| Executive Order 143015 | White House | 2025 | context | testing reform |
| NRC Part 53 page10 | US NRC | 2026 | supports | framework |
| ADVANCE Act37 | US Congress | 2024 | context | licensing statute |
| COP28 declaration34 | national governments | 2023 | context | tripling goal |
| EU taxonomy delegated act41 | European Commission | 2022 | context | finance classification |
| World Bank financing policy33 | World Bank | 2025 | context | finance policy |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNA world nuclear power page1 | World Nuclear Association | 2025 | supports | fleet |
| IAEA projections2 | IAEA | 2025 | context | 2050 cases |
| IEA nuclear report28 | IEA | 2025 | context | pathway |
| NEA small reactor dashboard29 | OECD NEA | 2024 | context | design counts |
| Uranium Red Book30 | OECD NEA and IAEA | 2024 | context | resources and demand |
| IAEA small reactor booklet42 | IAEA | 2022 | context | design catalogue |
| WNA enrichment page12 | World Nuclear Association | 2025 | supports | capacity |
| IAEA reactor database32 | IAEA | 2026 | context | reactor records |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 10US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), 10 CFR Part 53 rulemaking page (final rule 91 FR 15696; risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive framework; background in NEIMA and the ADVANCE Act). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3The White House (ed.), Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Executive Order 14300, 23 May 2025 (goal of 400 GW by 2050 from about 100 GW in 2024; 18-month limit for new reactor decisions; 1-year limit for continued operation). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5UNVERIFIED, not opened: The White House (ed.), Reforming Nuclear Reactor Testing at the Department of Energy, Executive Order 14301, 23 May 2025, the page address returned not found; the goal of three reactors achieving criticality by 4 July 2026 is taken from the American Nuclear Society report. The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4The White House (ed.), Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base, Executive Order 14302, 23 May 2025 (5 GW of uprates; 10 new large reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030; fuel, enrichment and spent fuel directions). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: ADVANCE Act of 2024, Public Law 118-67, United States Congress, cited from memory without a figure; the NRC Part 53 page names the Act as background. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12World Nuclear Association (ed.), Uranium Enrichment (information library page; capacity table from the WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025: 68.076 million SWU in 2025, Rosatom 29.133, Urenco 17.300, CNNC 13.789 estimated, Orano 7.500; US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Canada (country profile; Darlington BWRX-300, construction licence April 2025, first nuclear concrete 26 June 2026, operation expected 2030, CAD 20.9 billion for four units; page lists 316 MWe gross and describes 300 MWe). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in South Korea (country profile; 26 operable units, 25,609 MWe; i-SMR 170 MWe design, standard design approval application February 2026, approval targeted 2028; Barakah units in operation, last in September 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Generation IV International Forum (ed.), Generation IV systems, the page address returned not found; the forum and its six concepts are described in the World Nuclear Association page. GIF, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Complementary Climate Delegated Act on nuclear and gas activities in the EU taxonomy, 2022, cited from memory without a figure. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Finland (country profile; Olkiluoto 3 contract of EUR 3.2 billion for mid-2009, regular production April 2023; Onkalo operating licence granted October 2026 valid to the end of 2070, after the 30 September evidence close). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25Steigerwald, B., Weibezahn, J., Slowik, M. and von Hirschhausen, C., Uncertainties in estimating production costs of future nuclear technologies: a model-based analysis of small modular reactors, Energy 281, 128204, 2023 (abstract page read). Elsevier, Amsterdam. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26Steigerwald, B. et al., Future nuclear fission reactors: uncertainties, the effect of parameter choice and an application to small modular reactor concepts, Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal 2, 217, 2023 (abstract page read; 15 concepts; none competes with existing renewables on its assumptions). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27Krall, L.M., Macfarlane, A.M. and Ewing, R.C., Nuclear waste from small modular reactors, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(23), e2111833119, 2022 (open-access full text, abstract and conclusions read; waste volume factors of 2 to 30; three designs). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Working Group III, chapter 6, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Life Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation Options, 2021, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), What is high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)? (article of 3 December 2024; enrichment 5% to less than 20% U-235; demand could reach 50 metric tons a year by 2035; Piketon more than 100 kg enriched). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (programme page; USD 160 million initial funding; demonstrations within 7 years of award; ARC 20 designs for the mid-2030s). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), NuScale US460 standard design approval page, the page address returned not found; the approval is cited from memory without a figure. US NRC, Rockville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Kairos Power Hermes test reactor licensing page, the page address returned not found; no figure from it is used. US NRC, Rockville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ontario Power Generation (ed.), Darlington New Nuclear Project page, the page returned forbidden; Darlington figures are taken from the World Nuclear Association country profile. OPG, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy, COP28, December 2023, cited from memory without a figure. Signatory national governments. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank Group (ed.), press release on ending the ban on financing nuclear energy, June 2025, the page address returned not found; cited from memory without a figure. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the World Today (information library page; 443 operable reactors, 405,667 MWe net, about 9% of world electricity, 80 under construction with 87,813 MWe gross; electricity data for 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, 2025 edition (377 GW at end of 2024; high case 992 GW and low case 561 GW in 2050), taken from search-result summaries of trade reports; the IAEA page was not retrieved. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy, January 2025, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (ed.), The NEA Small Modular Reactor Dashboard, second edition, the page returned a service error; no figure from it is used. OECD NEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD NEA and IAEA (eds.), Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. OECD NEA, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Advances in Small Modular Reactor Technology Developments, 2022 edition, cited from memory without a figure. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Power Reactor Information System, the analytics page returned only its title; no figure from it is used. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in France (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 57 operable reactors; EPR2 six units, EUR 72.8 billion estimate of December 2025; Flamanville 3 grid connection December 2024, EUR 13.2 billion estimate of December 2022). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22World Nuclear Association (ed.), Storage and Disposal of Radioactive Wastes (information library page; Finland, Sweden, France and US repository milestones; Cigéo commissioning planned for 2050; Yucca Mountain suspended). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in China (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 65 reactors, 65,085 MWe operable; 39 under construction; HTR-PM commercial operation December 2023; Linglong One commissioning expected during 2026; 110 GWe target by 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back