Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Fuel supply gap while first-of-a-kind units are delayed

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Advanced nuclear is firm infrastructure and a delivery test
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Fuel supply gap while first-of-a-kind units are delayed
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT15-FUE-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
several first-of-a-kind units reach fuel load in the same years while HALEU output stays below demand
Analogues
schedule and cost records of recent large units151720
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    MIN → ENE

    HALEU output falls short of first-core needs for new designs

    2024

  2. 2

    TRD → MIN

    enrichment restrictions narrow supply options

    2025

  3. 3

    ENE → FIN

    first-of-a-kind schedules slip and costs rise

    2022

  4. 4

    FIN → INF

    lenders reprice later projects

    2026

  5. 5

    GOV → INF

    goals and licensing deadlines meet delivery limits

    2025

  6. 6

    INF → ENE

    firm capacity arrives later than plans assumed

    2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT15-FUE-01 would travel through Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Minerals to energyHALEU output falls short of first-core needs for new designs. Analogue or source: 2024.Edition XT-15, scenario SCN-XT15-FUE-01, step 1
02 Trade to mineralsEnrichment restrictions narrow supply options. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-15, scenario SCN-XT15-FUE-01, step 2
03 Energy to financeFirst-of-a-kind schedules slip and costs rise. Analogue or source: 2022.Edition XT-15, scenario SCN-XT15-FUE-01, step 3
04 Finance to infrastructureLenders reprice later projects. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-15, scenario SCN-XT15-FUE-01, step 4
05 Governance to infrastructureGoals and licensing deadlines meet delivery limits. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-15, scenario SCN-XT15-FUE-01, step 5
06 Infrastructure to energyFirm capacity arrives later than plans assumed. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-15, scenario SCN-XT15-FUE-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission 2026, scenario SCN-XT15-FUE-01 (2026); Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 20World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in France (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 57 operable reactors; EPR2 six units, EUR 72.8 billion estimate of December 2025; Flamanville 3 grid connection December 2024, EUR 13.2 billion estimate of December 2022). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Fuel supply gap while first-of-a-kind units are delayed. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskExponential Technology

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices