Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 advanced nuclear agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 advanced nuclear edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Advanced nuclear is firm infrastructure and a delivery test
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Fuel supply gap while first-of-a-kind units are delayed
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the advanced nuclear candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. Q-01

    How much enrichment and HALEU capacity will exist each year to 2030, and where are the chokepoints?

    INI-XT15-FUE-01 · fuel supply; first output: fuel supply map.

  2. Q-02

    How do announced schedules compare with delivered first-of-a-kind units?

    INI-XT15-DLV-02 · schedule against delivery; first output: schedule-against-delivery table.

  3. Q-03

    How do waste and spent-fuel volumes of advanced designs compare on a common basis?

    INI-XT15-WST-03 · waste on a common basis; first output: waste comparison table.

  4. Q-04

    What do first-of-a-kind and later units cost on a common basis, and what was assumed?

    INI-XT15-CST-04 · cost on a common basis; first output: cost table.

  5. Q-05

    How long do licensing reviews take under Part 53 and in other jurisdictions?

    INI-XT15-LIC-05 · licensing pace; first output: review-time table.

  6. Q-06

    Which national fuel-cycle and uranium supply data can be bound from primary sources?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: data gap register.

  7. Q-07

    What workforce and fabrication capacity exists for reactor construction and fuel production?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. Q-08

    Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real projects, and which are only planned?

    Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 advanced nuclear portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-XT15-FUE-01Fuel supplyInitiativeQ-01PROPOSED
INI-XT15-DLV-02Schedule against deliveryInitiativeQ-02PROPOSED
INI-XT15-WST-03Waste on a common basisInitiativeQ-03PROPOSED
INI-XT15-CST-04Cost on a common basisInitiativeQ-04PROPOSED
INI-XT15-LIC-05Licensing paceInitiativeQ-05PROPOSED
MSN-XT15-2027-01Fuel and delivery Universe missionMissionQ-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The advanced nuclear edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, minerals and supply chains, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National readiness chapters

    nuclear programme and fuel readiness in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector couplings

    GS-02 energy · SR-04 minerals · SR-03 supply chains

    GS-02 DRAFTED · sector baselines

  3. 03

    Technology system model

    reactors, fuel cycle, siting, waste, licensing

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    XT-15 report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the advanced nuclear candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the advanced nuclear candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-XT15-2027-01 · Fuel and delivery Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
INF-001 · fleetINI-XT15-DLV-02schedule against deliveryPUBLIC
INF-003 · Natrium permitINI-XT15-DLV-02schedule against deliveryPUBLIC
GOV-004 · Part 53INI-XT15-LIC-05licensing pacePUBLIC
MIN-006 · HALEUINI-XT15-FUE-01fuel supplyPUBLIC
TRD-007 · enrichmentINI-XT15-FUE-01fuel supplyPUBLIC
FIN-008 · large-unit costINI-XT15-CST-04cost on a common basisPUBLIC
WAS-010 · waste volumesINI-XT15-WST-03waste on a common basisPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-XT15-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
NRC and DOE news pages on advanced reactorsregulator and agencyper releaseINF-003
Reactor Pilot Program updatesDOE and companiesper eventINF-002
World nuclear fleet and country pagesindustry associationcontinuousINF-001
HALEU and enrichment noticesDOE and operatorsper eventMIN-006
Enrichment capacity dataindustry associationannualTRD-007
Country cost and schedule recordsowners and national audit bodiesper eventFIN-008
Repository licensing noticesnational regulatorsper eventWAS-010

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-XT15-001Four DOE-authorized test reactors reached criticality by 4 July 20267CORROBORATEDINFresearch question Q-02
SIG-XT15-002NRC construction permit for a sodium-cooled power reactor in March 20268CORROBORATEDINF · GOVresearch question Q-05
SIG-XT15-003Operating licence for Finnish used-fuel disposal in October 202621PARTIALWAS · GOVinitiative Q-03

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Finland (country profile; Olkiluoto 3 contract of EUR 3.2 billion for mid-2009, regular production April 2023; Onkalo operating licence granted October 2026 valid to the end of 2070, after the 30 September evidence close). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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