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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

10 min read0 figures5 tables24 notesNR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Advanced nuclear is firm infrastructure and a delivery test
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Fuel supply gap while first-of-a-kind units are delayed
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Reactor designs and deployment
    2. 8.2 Siting, cooling, heat and waste
    3. 8.3 Fuel, enrichment and materials
    4. 8.4 Economy, cost and workforce
    5. 8.5 Safety, licensing and governance watch
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Reactor designs and deployment

The fleet is large and mature. New designs are at the demonstration stage, with test reactors, one construction permit for a sodium-cooled power reactor and first small units in construction or contract.

443reactors

operable worldwide, 20251

4test reactors

critical under the DOE pilot program by 4 July 20267

345MWe

Natrium reactor under a construction permit, 20268

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
World fleet443 operable and 80 under construction in 20251Reported
Test reactorsfour DOE-authorized reactors reached zero-power criticality in June and July 202667Reported
Small and advanced unitsBWRX-300 in construction at Darlington; Rolls-Royce SMR contract for Wylfa; i-SMR design in review; Linglong One in commissioning14171819Reported
Fast and floating reactorsBREST-OD-300 under construction in Russia; two KLT-40S units supplying power since 20191623Reported

Couplings

  • ENE ↔ INF capacity and delivery
  • MIN → INF fuel
  • FIN → INF construction

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • operating record of advanced units
  • delivered cost against plan

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.2Siting, cooling, heat and waste

Reactors need sites, cooling and a route for used fuel. Waste volume of new designs is contested, and the first operating licence for used-fuel disposal was granted in Finland in October 2026.

2 to 30times

waste volume factors in a peer-reviewed study of three designs27

2070year

end of the Onkalo operating licence, granted October 202621

2050year

planned start of the French Cigéo repository22

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Waste volumewater-, molten-salt- and sodium-cooled small reactors raise waste volume by factors of 2 to 30 in one study27Reported
RepositoriesFinland licensed in October 2026; Sweden building on site; France plans commissioning in 2050; the US Yucca Mountain project is suspended2122Reported
Cooling waternot published for new sites in the sources opened1Expert input
Sitingone new unit sited near an existing coal-fired plant8Reported

Couplings

  • ENE → WAT cooling water
  • WAS → GOV repository licensing
  • INF → ENE site delivery

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • cooling-water and land use of new sites
  • waste on a common basis

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.3Fuel, enrichment and materials

Many new designs need HALEU. Enrichment capacity is concentrated, and the United States restricts imports of Russian low-enriched uranium.

5 to <20% U-235

HALEU enrichment range11

68.076million SWU

world enrichment capacity, 202512

42.8%

Rosatom share of capacity, derived12

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
HALEUDOE estimates demand up to 50 tonnes a year by 2035; Piketon had enriched more than 100 kg11Reported
Enrichment capacityfour operators hold nearly all capacity; China values are estimates12Reported
Import limitsUS ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024, with waivers12Reported
Fabrication and materialscapacity by country not bound11Expert input

Couplings

  • MIN → ENE fuel supply
  • TRD → MIN import limits
  • FIN → MIN enrichment investment

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • HALEU output by year
  • fabrication capacity by country

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.4Economy, cost and workforce

Recent large reactors ran far over first estimates. Small-reactor costs are modelled, contested and not yet delivered.

30.34USD billion

Vogtle 3 and 4 estimate, May 202215

72.8EUR billion

EPR2 six-unit estimate, December 202520

20.9CAD billion

four planned Darlington units14

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Large unitsVogtle 3 and 4 at USD 30.34 billion against an initial USD 14 billion; Hinkley Point C at GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices1517Reported
Small reactorsnone of 15 modelled concepts competed with existing renewables in one study; results depend on assumptions2526Reported
Programme estimatesEPR2 at EUR 72.8 billion for six units; Darlington at CAD 20.9 billion for four1420Reported
Workforceskills gaps likely; no figure bound1Expert input

Couplings

  • FIN → INF construction
  • ENE → FIN revenue
  • HLT → INF workforce

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • delivered cost of advanced units
  • workforce size and skills gaps

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.5Safety, licensing and governance watch

Licensing is the main public lever. The United States has published a technology-inclusive framework and set goals, and other regulators are reviewing first designs.

400GW

US capacity goal for 2050 in the May 2025 order3

18months

limit set for new reactor licensing decisions in the order3

2028year

target for approval of the Korean i-SMR design19

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Licensing frameworkPart 53 final rule published in 202610Reported
Executive goals400 GW by 2050; 5 GW of uprates and 10 large reactors under construction by 203034Reported
Other regulatorsCanadian construction licence in April 2025; Korean design review from February 20261419Reported
Finance and policytripling goal and taxonomy treatment noted; texts not opened3441Inferred

Couplings

  • GOV → INF licensing pace
  • GOV → MIN fuel policy
  • GOV → TRD import limits

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • review times outside the United States
  • text of national policies

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the World Today (information library page; 443 operable reactors, 405,667 MWe net, about 9% of world electricity, 80 under construction with 87,813 MWe gross; electricity data for 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6American Nuclear Society (ed.), The deadline arrives: checking in on the Reactor Pilot Program (news article, 2 July 2026; criticality by Antares 4 June, Valar 18 June, Deployable Energy 1 July; ten companies selected in August 2025; status of the remaining participants). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 14World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Canada (country profile; Darlington BWRX-300, construction licence April 2025, first nuclear concrete 26 June 2026, operation expected 2030, CAD 20.9 billion for four units; page lists 316 MWe gross and describes 300 MWe). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 18World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in China (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 65 reactors, 65,085 MWe operable; 39 under construction; HTR-PM commercial operation December 2023; Linglong One commissioning expected during 2026; 110 GWe target by 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 19World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in South Korea (country profile; 26 operable units, 25,609 MWe; i-SMR 170 MWe design, standard design approval application February 2026, approval targeted 2028; Barakah units in operation, last in September 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 16POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Russia (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 34 operable reactors, 27,969 MWe; BREST-OD-300 under construction since June 2021; Akademik Lomonosov 2 x 32 MWe, grid connection December 2019; Indonesia agreement October 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 23World Nuclear Association (ed.), Advanced Nuclear Power Reactors (information library page, updated November 2025; Generation IV forum set up in 2001 with six concepts; sodium-cooled and lead-cooled fast reactors; molten salt reactors not covered). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 27Krall, L.M., Macfarlane, A.M. and Ewing, R.C., Nuclear waste from small modular reactors, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(23), e2111833119, 2022 (open-access full text, abstract and conclusions read; waste volume factors of 2 to 30; three designs). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Finland (country profile; Olkiluoto 3 contract of EUR 3.2 billion for mid-2009, regular production April 2023; Onkalo operating licence granted October 2026 valid to the end of 2070, after the 30 September evidence close). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 22World Nuclear Association (ed.), Storage and Disposal of Radioactive Wastes (information library page; Finland, Sweden, France and US repository milestones; Cigéo commissioning planned for 2050; Yucca Mountain suspended). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 11US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), What is high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)? (article of 3 December 2024; enrichment 5% to less than 20% U-235; demand could reach 50 metric tons a year by 2035; Piketon more than 100 kg enriched). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 12World Nuclear Association (ed.), Uranium Enrichment (information library page; capacity table from the WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025: 68.076 million SWU in 2025, Rosatom 29.133, Urenco 17.300, CNNC 13.789 estimated, Orano 7.500; US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 20World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in France (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 57 operable reactors; EPR2 six units, EUR 72.8 billion estimate of December 2025; Flamanville 3 grid connection December 2024, EUR 13.2 billion estimate of December 2022). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 25Steigerwald, B., Weibezahn, J., Slowik, M. and von Hirschhausen, C., Uncertainties in estimating production costs of future nuclear technologies: a model-based analysis of small modular reactors, Energy 281, 128204, 2023 (abstract page read). Elsevier, Amsterdam. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 26Steigerwald, B. et al., Future nuclear fission reactors: uncertainties, the effect of parameter choice and an application to small modular reactor concepts, Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal 2, 217, 2023 (abstract page read; 15 concepts; none competes with existing renewables on its assumptions). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 3The White House (ed.), Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Executive Order 14300, 23 May 2025 (goal of 400 GW by 2050 from about 100 GW in 2024; 18-month limit for new reactor decisions; 1-year limit for continued operation). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 10US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), 10 CFR Part 53 rulemaking page (final rule 91 FR 15696; risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive framework; background in NEIMA and the ADVANCE Act). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 4The White House (ed.), Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base, Executive Order 14302, 23 May 2025 (5 GW of uprates; 10 new large reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030; fuel, enrichment and spent fuel directions). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy, COP28, December 2023, cited from memory without a figure. Signatory national governments. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Complementary Climate Delegated Act on nuclear and gas activities in the EU taxonomy, 2022, cited from memory without a figure. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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