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Storage is grid infrastructure and a supply chain

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

5 min read2 figures1 table7 notesNR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Storage is grid infrastructure and a supply chain
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Grid dependence on batteries while supply is restricted
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is energy storage risk concentrated?
  • Which couplings carry energy storage shocks into other systems?
  • Which energy storage capabilities hold under compound stress?
  • What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five footprint and governance chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Energy storage is usually discussed as a cost curve. The 2026 evidence reads it as two things at once: a grid infrastructure that shifts solar and wind output across the day, and a materials supply chain that depends on a few minerals, a few countries and one dominant chemistry128.

The deployment evidence is strong. The IEA counts 108 GW of new battery storage in 2025, 40% more than in 2024, and installed capacity is eleven times the 2021 level1. Costs fell about 30% in one year to USD 140 per kWh installed2.

The supply evidence is concentrated. Lithium iron phosphate is in about 90% of deployments1. The Democratic Republic of the Congo mined an estimated 73% of cobalt and China produced about 82% of natural graphite67. China announced export controls on battery supply chains in October 20258.

The least measured parts are safety rates, long-duration volumes, recycling and workforce. One 2025 fire is recorded in a secondary source, and incident rates on a common basis are not bound14.

Figure 1.1What do storage options cost installed? Total installed cost, USD per kWh

Pumped storage and four-hour batteries have similar installed costs per kWh in 2025. Other long-duration options cost more per kWh and are shown as reported averages across few projects2.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Four-hour utility-scale battery140
Pumped storage hydropower153
Thermal storage245
Compressed air381
Gravity storage803

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

140USD per kWh

four-hour battery, 20252

153USD per kWh

pumped storage, 20252

245USD per kWh

thermal storage, 20252

803USD per kWh

gravity storage, 20252

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The energy storage-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their energy storage content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·WEAK
pumped storage water		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link
ENE EnergyWEAK
cooling and siting, not bound		·WEAK
cold-chain backup, undocumented		WEAK
clinic backup, undocumented		WEAK
no documented link
FOO FoodWEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		·WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link
HLT HealthWEAK
no documented link		WEAK
workforce		WEAK
no documented link		·WEAK
no documented link
BIO BiodiversityWEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    TRD → MIN → ENE

    Export controls or price swings on battery materials slow storage build-out.

    Reported China controls of October 20258

  2. 02

    MIN → FIN → ENE

    Lithium and graphite prices change installed cost.

    Reported lithium prices almost doubled, 2025 to 20268

  3. 03

    FIN → ENE

    Falling cost raises deployment and solar pairing.

    Reported cost fall of about 30% in 20252

  4. 04

    INF → ENE

    A fire or siting dispute can halt a project or a market.

    Inferred Moss Landing record14

  5. 05

    GOV → DAT

    The battery passport sets data duties from 2027.

    Reported EU regulation10

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Graphite (Natural) (China share of production, anode material imports, preliminary duties). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Storage is grid infrastructure and a supply chain. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Energy Storage (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Advanced Energy Storage.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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