Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four energy storage risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

6 min read0 figures1 table22 notesNR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Storage is grid infrastructure and a supply chain
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Grid dependence on batteries while supply is restricted
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. InferredEQL 4RSK-XT16-MIN-001

    Concentrated cell and materials supply

    Driver
    concentrated mining and refining; export controls678
    Exposure
    grid projects and manufacturers that rely on one cell chemistry
    Vulnerability
    few suppliers of cathode, anode and equipment
    Capacity
    diversification projects; recycling targets810
    Cascade
    MIN → ENE → INF
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  2. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT16-SAF-002

    Fire and thermal events at large sites

    Driver
    rapid growth in utility-scale capacity1
    Exposure
    neighbouring residents and local grids
    Vulnerability
    older chemistries and dense sites; incident rates not bound1425
    Capacity
    safety codes and large-scale fire testing303132
    Cascade
    INF → ENE
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  3. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-XT16-FIN-003

    Cost rebound from input prices

    Driver
    lithium price rise since early 20258
    Exposure
    project economics and procurement schedules
    Vulnerability
    fixed-price contracts and thin margins
    Capacity
    chemistry diversification; sodium-ion options1847
    Cascade
    FIN → ENE
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT16-GOV-004

    Fragmented trade and safety rules

    Driver
    tariffs, export controls and divergent codes7810
    Exposure
    developers and manufacturers selling in several markets
    Vulnerability
    uneven compliance capacity and testing capacity
    Capacity
    regulation and standards bodies103336
    Cascade
    GOV → MIN, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for energy storage at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSsafety standards and EU safety documentation for stationary systems103032
Monitoring and observationLISTEDno common tracker of incidents or field degradation25
Early warningLISTEDsupply and price watching is not consolidated
Preparedness and planningEXISTSEU regulation and national procurement programmes310
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDstrategic stocks of battery materials are not documented here
ResponseLISTEDno tested response to a large site fire documented here14
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDstorage as backup for critical services is not evidenced here
RecoveryLISTEDone plant clean-up and recycling record in a secondary source14
AdaptationEXISTSchemistry diversification is under way1819
Social protectionLISTEDnot applicable at baseline
Finance and insuranceLISTEDinvestment and insurance data are not bound
Institutional coordinationEXISTSstandards bodies and regulators102648
Technical infrastructureEXISTSlarge and growing installed base13
WorkforceLISTEDskills gaps reported; no figure bound
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong peer-reviewed base38394041
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 7USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Graphite (Natural) (China share of production, anode material imports, preliminary duties). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: EPRI (ed.), Battery Energy Storage System Failure Incident Database (the page returned no data; incident rate figures seen only in a secondary summary). Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: UL Standards and Engagement (ed.), UL 9540, Energy Storage Systems and Equipment, third edition 2023, cited from memory; the catalogue page showed no document text. UL, Northbrook. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UL Standards and Engagement (ed.), UL 9540A, Test Method for Evaluating Thermal Runaway Fire Propagation in Battery Energy Storage Systems, cited from memory. UL, Northbrook. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Fire Protection Association (ed.), NFPA 855, Standard for the Installation of Stationary Energy Storage Systems, 2023 edition, cited from memory; the page showed only the title. NFPA, Quincy. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 18Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Sodium-ion battery (energy density figures; producer announcements of 2025; cost claims marked as needing update). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: CATL (ed.), announcement of the Naxtra sodium-ion battery brand, April 2025, known only from a secondary summary; the company news page was fetched but no article was read. Contemporary Amperex Technology, Ningde. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Electrotechnical Commission (ed.), IEC 62619:2022, Safety requirements for secondary lithium cells and batteries for use in industrial applications, cited from memory. IEC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Electrotechnical Commission (ed.), IEC 62933-5-2, Electrical energy storage systems, safety requirements for grid-integrated systems, electrochemical-based systems, cited from memory. IEC, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 3US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years, Today in Energy, 7 August 2026 (43.6 GW at the end of 2025; nearly 52 GW at mid-2026; planned additions to 2028). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 19Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Lithium iron phosphate battery (energy density, cycle life, market share reports). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Energy (ed.), Long Duration Storage Shot, launched 2021, cited from memory; the page address returned not found. US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (ed.), Order No. 841, Electric Storage Participation in Markets Operated by Regional Transmission Organizations and Independent System Operators, February 2018, cited from memory. FERC, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Dunn, B., Kamath, H. and Tarascon, J.-M., Electrical energy storage for the grid: a battery of choices, Science 334, 928 to 935, 2011, cited from memory. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Schmidt, O. et al., Projecting the future levelized cost of electricity storage technologies, Joule 3, 81 to 100, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Albertus, P., Manser, J.S. and Litzelman, S., Long-duration electricity storage applications, economics, and technologies, Joule 4, 21 to 32, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sepulveda, N.A. et al., Design space for long-duration energy storage in decarbonised power systems, Nature Energy 6, 506 to 516, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Energy Storage (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Advanced Energy Storage.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskExponential Technology

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

Sector signature

The sectors behind Advanced Energy Storage.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices