Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables8 notesNR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Storage is grid infrastructure and a supply chain
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Grid dependence on batteries while supply is restricted
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Advanced energy storage matters to the Nexus programme in two ways. It is a new grid infrastructure that moves solar and wind output into the evening and gives power systems flexibility. It is also a materials supply chain built on lithium, graphite, cobalt and a small number of cell makers. The deployment evidence is strong. The IEA counts 108 GW of new battery storage worldwide in 2025, 40% more than in 2024, and about 80% of it was utility-scale1. IRENA reports that the installed cost of a four-hour utility-scale battery fell about 30% in 2025 to USD 140 per kWh, around 95% below 20102. Lithium iron phosphate cells make up about 90% of deployments1. In the United States, utility-scale battery capacity was 43.6 GW at the end of 2025 and nearly 52 GW by mid-20263. The supply base is concentrated. The Democratic Republic of the Congo mined an estimated 73% of cobalt, China produced about 82% of natural graphite, and the IEA reports record refining concentration across energy minerals678. China announced export controls on battery supply chains on 9 October 2025, and the IEA records that proposed controls on batteries were suspended until November 20268. The European Union battery regulation requires a battery passport from 18 February 2027 for industrial batteries above 2 kWh10. Evidence on long-duration storage volumes, fire incident rates, recycling capacity and workforce is thin. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no price or deployment figure and ranks no country, vendor or chemistry.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the energy storage baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. 108 GW was added worldwide in 2025, 40% more than in 2024.1

    How fast is storage growing?Reported

  2. About USD 140 per kWh installed for four-hour utility-scale systems in 2025.2

    What does it cost?Reported

  3. Lithium iron phosphate, about 90% to 94% of deployments depending on the source.12

    Which chemistry dominates?Reported

  4. Cobalt in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, natural graphite in China, and refining across energy minerals.678

    Where is the supply concentrated?Reported

  5. A battery passport from 18 February 2027 and safety documentation for stationary systems.10

    What does Europe require?Reported

  6. Pumped storage USD 153 per kWh installed; other options cost more in 2025.2

    What do long-duration options cost?Reported

  7. Incident rates on a common basis are not bound; one 2025 fire is recorded in a secondary source.14

    How safe is it?Reported

  8. A grid that depends on batteries while supply stays concentrated. SCN-XT16-SUP-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

IRENA reports that the installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage fell about 30% in 2025 to USD 140 per kWh, around 95% below the 2010 level.

Figure S.1Installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage (USD per kWh)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
20102,634
2025140

Source: IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 20252. The 2010 value is attributed there to BNEF.

Cheaper storage makes it a routine part of new solar projects: about a quarter of utility-scale solar commissioned in 2025 was paired with a battery2. IRENA also notes that the rebound in battery metal prices in early 2026 is a reminder that input cost volatility can slow the trend2. The IEA records that lithium prices almost doubled between January 2025 and April 20268.

S.4At a glance

108GW

added worldwide, 20251

140USD per kWh

installed cost, 20252

≈90%

lithium iron phosphate share1

≈52GW

US utility-scale capacity, mid-20263

73%

cobalt mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo6

2027date

EU battery passport, 18 February10

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading energy storage as grid infrastructure and as a materials supply chain.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people storage arrives as a headline about a battery plant, a fire or a cheaper bill.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Costs fell about 30% in one year while input prices rebounded, and investment totals are not bound.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Storage is well described by deployment and cost series and thinly measured as a system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of advanced energy storage as infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a forecast of deployment or prices, a technology ranking, an endorsement of any vendor or chemistry, or an assessment of any project or programme. Safety codes, trade measures and subsidies are decisions of competent authorities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 energy storage edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years, Today in Energy, 7 August 2026 (43.6 GW at the end of 2025; nearly 52 GW at mid-2026; planned additions to 2028). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Graphite (Natural) (China share of production, anode material imports, preliminary duties). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Energy Storage (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Advanced Energy Storage.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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