Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the energy storage baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables13 notesNR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Storage is grid infrastructure and a supply chain
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Infrastructure
    3. 2.3 Finance
    4. 2.4 Minerals
    5. 2.5 Governance
    6. 2.6 Energy
    7. 2.7 Safety
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Grid dependence on batteries while supply is restricted
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

IRENA reports that the installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage fell about 30% in 2025 to USD 140 per kWh, around 95% below the 2010 level.

Figure 2.1Installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage (USD per kWh)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
20102,634
2025140

Source: IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 20252. The 2010 value is attributed there to BNEF.

Implication

Cheaper storage makes it a routine part of new solar projects: about a quarter of utility-scale solar commissioned in 2025 was paired with a battery2. IRENA also notes that the rebound in battery metal prices in early 2026 is a reminder that input cost volatility can slow the trend2. The IEA records that lithium prices almost doubled between January 2025 and April 20268.

What would move it

Installed cost in the next IRENA report, lithium and graphite prices, and trade measures would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

    The IEA counts 108 GW of new battery storage capacity deployed worldwide in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; installed capacity is eleven times the 2021 level, and lithium iron phosphate is in about 90% of deployments.12

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004

    US utility-scale battery capacity was 43.6 GW at the end of 2025 and nearly 52 GW by mid-2026; operators plan 14 GW more in the second half of 2026, 26 GW in 2027 and 14 GW in 2028.3

2.3Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

    IRENA reports that the installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage fell about 30% in 2025 to USD 140 per kWh, around 95% below the 2010 level of USD 2,634 per kWh.2

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

    Ember reports that battery costs fell 45% in 2025 after a fall of 20% in 2024, while deployment grew 46% to an estimated 250 GWh; this is a different measure from installed system cost.42

2.4Minerals

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-005

    World lithium mine production rose 31% to about 290,000 tons in 2025, excluding the United States, and batteries account for 88% of lithium end use.5

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-006

    The Democratic Republic of the Congo accounted for an estimated 73% of mined cobalt in 2025 and set export quotas of up to 96,600 tons a year for 2026 and 2027.624

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-007

    China produced an estimated 82% of natural graphite in 2025, and the IEA reports that the average share of the top refined supplier across energy minerals reached about 72%.78

2.5Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008

    Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 requires a battery passport from 18 February 2027 for industrial batteries above 2 kWh, sets safety requirements for stationary storage systems, and sets recycled content targets for cobalt, lead, lithium and nickel to be met by 2031.1011

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-009

    China announced export controls on lithium-ion battery supply chains on 9 October 2025; the IEA records that proposed controls on batteries were suspended until November 2026.8

2.6Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-010

    IRENA reports total installed cost of USD 153 per kWh for pumped storage, USD 245 for thermal storage, USD 381 for compressed air and USD 803 for gravity storage; one vendor states that its iron-air system can discharge for up to 100 hours.213

2.7Safety

  1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SAF-011

    A fire at a 300 MW, 1,200 MWh battery plant at Moss Landing, California, began on 16 January 2025 and about 1,200 residents were evacuated, according to a secondary summary.14

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a grid that depends on batteries while cell, cathode and graphite supply stays concentrated and trade measures change. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 3US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years, Today in Energy, 7 August 2026 (43.6 GW at the end of 2025; nearly 52 GW at mid-2026; planned additions to 2028). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026, 21 April 2026 (battery costs down 45% in 2025 after 20% in 2024; deployment up 46% to an estimated 250 GWh; 14% of new solar generation shifted). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 5USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Lithium (world mine production 2025, end uses, prices, reserves). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 24Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo production share quoted at different values from cited sources). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 7USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Graphite (Natural) (China share of production, anode material imports, preliminary duties). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 11European Commission (ed.), Batteries (policy page; Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 in force 17 August 2023, applies from 18 February 2024; Delegated Regulation (EU) 2025/606 of 4 July 2025 on recycling efficiency). Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 13Form Energy (ed.), Battery technology page (iron-air system described as able to discharge for up to 100 hours). Vendor statement, weak evidence, not independently tested. Form Energy, Somerville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Energy Storage (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Advanced Energy Storage.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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