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Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables11 notesNR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Storage is grid infrastructure and a supply chain
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Grid dependence on batteries while supply is restricted
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

INF · Deployment

Battery storage added worldwide

108GW

40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale.

Reported2025IEA1

FIN · Cost

Installed cost, four-hour utility-scale battery

140USD per kWh

about 30% lower than in 2024.

Reported2025IRENA2

INF · Chemistry

Lithium iron phosphate share of deployments

≈90%

IRENA gives about 94% of new installations.

Reported2025IEA1

MIN · Supply

World lithium mine production

290thousand tons

31% more than in 2024, excluding the United States.

Reported2025USGS5

MIN · Supply

Share of mined cobalt from the Democratic Republic of the Congo

73%

export quotas set for 2026 and 2027.

Reported2025USGS6

INF · National

US utility-scale battery capacity, mid-2026

≈52GW

43.6 GW at the end of 2025.

Reported2026EIA3

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through energy storage, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries energy storage risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATWater use of pumped storage and thermal systems is not bound in this edition.WAT ↔ ENEExpert input EQL 1
ENEThe core system: 108 GW added in 2025; solar and storage pairing is now routine.the core systemReported EQL 5
FOONo documented coupling at baseline; cold-chain backup is not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
HLTNo documented coupling at baseline; backup power for clinics is not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
BIONo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
CLIStorage lets solar output reach evening hours; installed batteries shifted about 14% of new solar generation in 2025.ENE → CLIReported EQL 3
INFGrid infrastructure: 80% of 2025 additions were utility-scale; one 2025 fire is recorded.ENE ↔ INFReported EQL 4
FINInstalled cost fell about 30% in 2025; investment totals are not bound.FIN ↔ ENEReported EQL 4
DATThe EU battery passport brings a data record for each industrial battery above 2 kWh from 2027.ENE → DATReported EQL 3
AICBattery-based backup power for data centres rose 30% to 45 GW in 2025; the share tied to compute load is not bound.AIC → ENEReported EQL 3
MINLithium, cobalt and graphite supply is concentrated; lithium prices almost doubled from January 2025 to April 2026.MIN → ENEReported EQL 4
TRDExport controls on battery supply chains were announced in October 2025; some were suspended until November 2026.TRD → MINReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on energy storage, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemstorage couples to power, minerals and tradesupply shock during rapid grid dependenceTHIN
GS-01Waterwater use of storage not boundpumped storage sitingTHIN
GS-02Energy108 GW added in 20251evening peak relianceGOOD
GS-03Foodno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-04Healthno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-05Financeinstalled cost USD 140 per kWh2investment totals not boundPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentaccess to storage in lower-income markets not boundwidening gapsTHIN
GS-07Climatesolar shifting 14% of new generation4avoided curtailmentPARTIAL
GS-08Disasterbackup power evidence not boundnone documentedTHIN
GS-09Infrastructureutility-scale share about 80%1fire and sitingPARTIAL
GS-10Citiesno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalbattery passport data from 202710data governancePARTIAL
GS-14PolicyEU regulation and trade measures810export controls and subsidiesGOOD
GS-15Sciencepeer-reviewed base on cost and technology383940common cost basisGOOD

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 5USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Lithium (world mine production 2025, end uses, prices, reserves). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 3US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years, Today in Energy, 7 August 2026 (43.6 GW at the end of 2025; nearly 52 GW at mid-2026; planned additions to 2028). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026, 21 April 2026 (battery costs down 45% in 2025 after 20% in 2024; deployment up 46% to an estimated 250 GWh; 14% of new solar generation shifted). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Dunn, B., Kamath, H. and Tarascon, J.-M., Electrical energy storage for the grid: a battery of choices, Science 334, 928 to 935, 2011, cited from memory. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Schmidt, O. et al., Projecting the future levelized cost of electricity storage technologies, Joule 3, 81 to 100, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Albertus, P., Manser, J.S. and Litzelman, S., Long-duration electricity storage applications, economics, and technologies, Joule 4, 21 to 32, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Energy Storage (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Advanced Energy Storage.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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