Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 energy storage agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 energy storage edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Storage is grid infrastructure and a supply chain
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Grid dependence on batteries while supply is restricted
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the energy storage candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. Q-01

    How many battery fires and thermal events occur per unit of capacity, and how do rates differ by chemistry and age?

    INI-XT16-SAF-01 · safety incident data; first output: incident register on a common basis.

  2. Q-02

    Which cell, cathode, anode and equipment steps are single points of failure, and how do export controls change them?

    INI-XT16-SUP-02 · cell and materials supply; first output: dependence map.

  3. Q-03

    How much long-duration storage is operating and under construction, by technology and duration?

    INI-XT16-LDS-03 · long-duration evidence; first output: deployment table by technology.

  4. Q-04

    What recycling capacity exists, and what recovered volumes meet the recycled content targets?

    INI-XT16-REC-04 · recycling and passport; first output: capacity and passport readiness map.

  5. Q-05

    How can installed cost, turnkey price and pack price be compared on one basis?

    INI-XT16-CST-05 · costs on a common basis; first output: cost bridge table.

  6. Q-06

    Which national markets set storage targets or procurement rules, and how do they differ?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: policy overlay.

  7. Q-07

    What workforce exists for installation, operation and fire response?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. Q-08

    Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

    Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 storage portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-XT16-SAF-01Safety incident dataInitiativeQ-01PROPOSED
INI-XT16-SUP-02Cell and materials supplyInitiativeQ-02PROPOSED
INI-XT16-LDS-03Long-duration evidenceInitiativeQ-03PROPOSED
INI-XT16-REC-04Recycling and passportInitiativeQ-04PROPOSED
INI-XT16-CST-05Costs on a common basisInitiativeQ-05PROPOSED
MSN-XT16-2027-01Evening peak Universe missionMissionQ-02Candidate

7.3The pathway

The energy storage edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, minerals and infrastructure, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National readiness chapters

    storage and grid-flexibility readiness in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector couplings

    GS-02 energy · SR-04 minerals · XT-12 materials

    GS-02 DRAFTED · sector baselines

  3. 03

    Technology system model

    cells, long-duration options, minerals, safety, governance

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    XT-16 report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the energy storage candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the energy storage candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-XT16-2027-01 · Evening peak Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
INF-001 · deploymentINI-XT16-CST-05costs on a common basisPUBLIC
FIN-002 · costINI-XT16-CST-05costs on a common basisPUBLIC
INF-004 · US capacityregional consortiapolicy overlayPUBLIC
MIN-006 · cobaltINI-XT16-SUP-02cell and materials supplyPUBLIC
MIN-007 · graphiteINI-XT16-SUP-02cell and materials supplyPUBLIC
GOV-008 · battery regulationINI-XT16-REC-04recycling and passportPUBLIC
SAF-011 · fire recordINI-XT16-SAF-01 · key F reviewsafety incident dataPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-XT16-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Agency capacity statisticsEIA and national agenciesmonthly to annualINF-004
IEA and IRENA annual reportsIEA, IRENAannualINF-001
Electricity reviewsEmberannualFIN-003
Mineral Commodity SummariesUSGSannualMIN-005
Critical minerals outlookIEAannualMIN-007
EU battery regulation pagesEuropean Commissionper releaseGOV-008
Incident databasesEPRI and agenciescontinuousSAF-011

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-XT16-001Installed cost fell about 30% in 20252CORROBORATEDFIN · ENEresearch question Q-05
SIG-XT16-002China battery export controls of October 20258PARTIALTRD · MINinitiative Q-02
SIG-XT16-003Moss Landing fire of January 202514PARTIALINFresearch question Q-01

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Energy Storage (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Advanced Energy Storage.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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