- Advanced Energy Storage 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The energy storage baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Storage is grid infrastructure and a supply chain
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Grid dependence on batteries while supply is restricted
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 energy storage readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Standards Progress | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading energy storage as grid infrastructure and as a materials supply chain. Deployment is large and cost has fallen sharply, and supply is concentrated. Evidence is strongest for deployment and cost, and weakest for safety rates, long-duration volumes and recycling.
INF-001 · FIN-002 · MIN-006 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people storage arrives as a headline about a battery plant, a fire or a cheaper bill. The baseline asks that public debate separate cost series, vendor claims and incident reports, and keep local safety questions in view.
FIN-002 · SAF-011 · INF-004
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Costs fell about 30% in one year while input prices rebounded, and investment totals are not bound28. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-002 · FIN-003
NEXUS
Synthesis
Storage is well described by deployment and cost series and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind incident rates, publish a cost bridge and test the supply-shock pathway before the next trade measure.
SYS-012 · Q-01 · Q-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for energy storage. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Nexus Standards and Academy | technology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capability | technology editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Storage is a grid build-out and a supply chain. The first is fast and falling in cost; the second is concentrated and exposed to trade measures. Keeping them apart avoids both hype and complacency.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Two stories, one technology
An installed system cost, a turnkey price and a battery cost index measure different things. This edition labels each and asks for a common basis before they are compared.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Separate measures of cost
One large fire can shape a local market. Incident rates on a common basis would show whether risk falls with scale, chemistry and standards.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Safety is the blind spot
Cells are cheap while materials are concentrated. Recycled content targets and the battery passport start in Europe, and recycling volumes are not yet measured.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Supply and recycling decide the next decade
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 energy storage readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Energy storage risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- PUBLISHED
- PROGRAMME
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation (EU) 2023/15421011 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | batteries |
| UL 954030 | UL Standards | US and Canada | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | energy storage systems |
| UL 9540A31 | UL Standards | US | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | thermal runaway fire propagation test |
| NFPA 85532 | NFPA | US | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | installation of stationary systems |
| IEC 6261933 | IEC | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | safety of industrial lithium cells |
| IEC 6305634 | IEC | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | safety of lithium systems for storage |
| UN Manual of Tests and Criteria, 38.335 | United Nations | global transport | PUBLISHED | transport testing |
| IEC 62933-5-236 | IEC | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | grid system safety |
| FERC Order 84148 | FERC | US | IN FORCE | wholesale market access |
| DOE Long Duration Storage Shot26 | US Department of Energy | US | PROGRAMME | cost target |
Changed since 2024
- EU rules on carbon footprint declaration and battery passport phase in from 2026 and 202710
- Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2025/606 set the method for recycling efficiency, published 4 July 202511
- China announced battery supply chain export controls on 9 October 2025, with some suspended until November 20268
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers energy storage assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about advanced energy storage as infrastructure and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed journals; agencies and institutions; standards bodies and regulations; supply and market analyses
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunn, Kamath and Tarascon38 | journal article | 2011 | framework | grid storage options |
| Schmidt et al.39 | journal article | 2019 | supports | cost projections |
| Albertus, Manser and Litzelman40 | journal article | 2020 | supports | long-duration economics |
| Sepulveda et al.41 | journal article | 2021 | supports | long-duration design space |
| Hunter et al.42 | journal article | 2021 | supports | long-duration costs |
| Armand and Tarascon43 | journal article | 2008 | framework | battery research |
| Goodenough and Park44 | journal article | 2013 | framework | lithium-ion perspective |
| Larcher and Tarascon45 | journal article | 2015 | context | sustainable batteries |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IEA Global Energy Review 20261 | IEA | 2026 | supports | deployment |
| IRENA cost report2 | IRENA | 2026 | supports | cost |
| EIA Today in Energy3 | EIA | 2026 | supports | US capacity |
| Ember Global Electricity Review4 | Ember | 2026 | supports | cost and solar shifting |
| IEA batteries slides9 | IEA | 2024 | context | outlook to 2030 |
| IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 slides12 | IEA | 2026 | context | battery demand context |
| BNEF cost survey28 | BNEF | 2025 | context | cost series cited by IRENA |
| Lazard LCOE+29 | Lazard | 2025 | context | storage cost comparison |
| NREL Storage Futures Study27 | NREL | 2021 | context | deployment scenarios |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation (EU) 2023/154210 | European Union | 2023 | supports | battery rules |
| European Commission batteries page11 | European Commission | 2025 | supports | implementation dates |
| UL 9540 and 9540A3031 | UL Standards | 2023 | context | system safety and fire testing |
| NFPA 85532 | NFPA | 2023 | context | installation code |
| IEC 6261933 and IEC 6305634 | IEC | 2022 | context | cell and system safety |
| UN Manual 38.335 | United Nations | 2023 | context | transport testing |
| IEC 62933-5-236 | IEC | 2020 | context | grid system safety |
| FERC Order 84148 | FERC | 2018 | context | market access |
| DOE Long Duration Storage Shot26 | US Department of Energy | 2021 | context | cost target |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USGS lithium5 | USGS | 2026 | supports | lithium supply |
| USGS cobalt6 | USGS | 2026 | supports | cobalt supply |
| USGS graphite7 | USGS | 2026 | supports | graphite supply |
| IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 20268 | IEA | 2026 | supports | concentration and controls |
| Form Energy page13 | vendor | 2026 | context | vendor claim |
| EPRI incident database25 | EPRI | 2025 | context | incident data, not read |
| IHA hydropower outlook37 | IHA | 2025 | context | pumped storage |
| CATL announcement47 | vendor | 2025 | context | sodium-ion claim |
| Feng et al.46 | journal article | 2018 | context | thermal runaway |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11European Commission (ed.), Batteries (policy page; Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 in force 17 August 2023, applies from 18 February 2024; Delegated Regulation (EU) 2025/606 of 4 July 2025 on recycling efficiency). Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: UL Standards and Engagement (ed.), UL 9540, Energy Storage Systems and Equipment, third edition 2023, cited from memory; the catalogue page showed no document text. UL, Northbrook. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UL Standards and Engagement (ed.), UL 9540A, Test Method for Evaluating Thermal Runaway Fire Propagation in Battery Energy Storage Systems, cited from memory. UL, Northbrook. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Fire Protection Association (ed.), NFPA 855, Standard for the Installation of Stationary Energy Storage Systems, 2023 edition, cited from memory; the page showed only the title. NFPA, Quincy. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Electrotechnical Commission (ed.), IEC 62619:2022, Safety requirements for secondary lithium cells and batteries for use in industrial applications, cited from memory. IEC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Electrotechnical Commission (ed.), IEC 63056:2020, Safety requirements for secondary lithium cells and batteries for use in electrical energy storage systems, cited from memory. IEC, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Manual of Tests and Criteria, section 38.3, lithium metal and lithium ion batteries, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. United Nations, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Electrotechnical Commission (ed.), IEC 62933-5-2, Electrical energy storage systems, safety requirements for grid-integrated systems, electrochemical-based systems, cited from memory. IEC, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (ed.), Order No. 841, Electric Storage Participation in Markets Operated by Regional Transmission Organizations and Independent System Operators, February 2018, cited from memory. FERC, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Energy (ed.), Long Duration Storage Shot, launched 2021, cited from memory; the page address returned not found. US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Dunn, B., Kamath, H. and Tarascon, J.-M., Electrical energy storage for the grid: a battery of choices, Science 334, 928 to 935, 2011, cited from memory. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Schmidt, O. et al., Projecting the future levelized cost of electricity storage technologies, Joule 3, 81 to 100, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Albertus, P., Manser, J.S. and Litzelman, S., Long-duration electricity storage applications, economics, and technologies, Joule 4, 21 to 32, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sepulveda, N.A. et al., Design space for long-duration energy storage in decarbonised power systems, Nature Energy 6, 506 to 516, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hunter, C.A. et al., Techno-economic analysis of long-duration energy storage and flexible power generation technologies to support high-variable renewable energy grids, Joule 5, 2077 to 2101, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Armand, M. and Tarascon, J.-M., Building better batteries, Nature 451, 652 to 657, 2008, cited from memory. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Goodenough, J.B. and Park, K.-S., The Li-ion rechargeable battery: a perspective, Journal of the American Chemical Society 135, 1167 to 1176, 2013, cited from memory. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Larcher, D. and Tarascon, J.-M., Towards greener and more sustainable batteries for electrical energy storage, Nature Chemistry 7, 19 to 29, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years, Today in Energy, 7 August 2026 (43.6 GW at the end of 2025; nearly 52 GW at mid-2026; planned additions to 2028). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026, 21 April 2026 (battery costs down 45% in 2025 after 20% in 2024; deployment up 46% to an estimated 250 GWh; 14% of new solar generation shifted). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Wanner, B. (IEA), Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions, presentation slides, Energy Storage Summit, London, 18 February 2025 (slides summarising the IEA special report of 2024; storage capacity needed for tripled renewables; stated policies battery additions to 2030; lithium demand measures). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12IEA (ed.), Global EV Outlook 2026, launch webinar slides, 20 May 2026 (electric cars 25% of sales in 2025, 28% forecast for 2026; battery pack price declines in China). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: BloombergNEF (ed.), Energy Storage System Cost Survey 2025, cited only as the source of the series reported by IRENA; not opened. BloombergNEF, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lazard (ed.), Levelized Cost of Energy Plus, 2025 edition, cited from memory. Lazard, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (ed.), Storage Futures Study, 2021, cited from memory; the host was not reachable. NREL, Golden. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Lithium (world mine production 2025, end uses, prices, reserves). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Graphite (Natural) (China share of production, anode material imports, preliminary duties). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Form Energy (ed.), Battery technology page (iron-air system described as able to discharge for up to 100 hours). Vendor statement, weak evidence, not independently tested. Form Energy, Somerville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: EPRI (ed.), Battery Energy Storage System Failure Incident Database (the page returned no data; incident rate figures seen only in a secondary summary). Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Hydropower Association (ed.), World Hydropower Outlook 2025 (the page loaded but the report was not read; the 2025 pumped storage figure appears only in a secondary summary). IHA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: CATL (ed.), announcement of the Naxtra sodium-ion battery brand, April 2025, known only from a secondary summary; the company news page was fetched but no article was read. Contemporary Amperex Technology, Ningde. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Feng, X. et al., Thermal runaway mechanism of lithium ion battery for electric vehicles: a review, Energy Storage Materials 10, 246 to 267, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo production share quoted at different values from cited sources). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back