Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

9 min read0 figures5 tables24 notesNR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Storage is grid infrastructure and a supply chain
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Grid dependence on batteries while supply is restricted
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Cells, chemistries and storage technologies
    2. 8.2 Grid role, energy and water
    3. 8.3 Minerals, materials and supply chain
    4. 8.4 Economy, investment and workforce
    5. 8.5 Safety, regulation and governance watch
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Cells, chemistries and storage technologies

Storage uses several technologies. Evidence is strongest for lithium-ion batteries and pumped storage, and weakest where claims rest on vendor announcements or secondary summaries.

108GW

battery storage added worldwide, 20251

≈90%

lithium iron phosphate share of deployments1

≈80%

utility-scale share of 2025 additions1

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Lithium iron phosphate batteriesabout 90% of deployments, up from well below half five years ago119Reported
Pumped storage hydropowerinstalled cost USD 153 per kWh; round-trip efficiency of 70 to 80%; pumped storage was the largest storage type in 2023 by capacity21716Reported
Sodium-ion batteriesa producer reported 175 Wh per kg for its 2025 line; field data not bound1847Reported
Flow batteries and iron-air systemsa 100 MW, 400 MWh vanadium system began operating in China in 2022; compressed air plants run in Germany, the United States and China; one vendor claims up to 100 hours202113Reported

Couplings

  • ENE ↔ FIN deployment and cost
  • MIN → ENE materials
  • INF → ENE safety and siting

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • long-duration deployment by technology
  • field performance on a common basis

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
  • XT-17 Climate Technologies and Carbon Management

8.2Grid role, energy and water

Batteries shift solar output into the evening and are moving from short ancillary services toward energy shifting. Water and cooling use is not published on a common basis.

≈25%

utility-scale solar paired with batteries, 20252

14%

new solar generation shifted by installed batteries, 20254

45GW

battery backup power additions for data centres, 20251

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Solar pairingabout a quarter of utility-scale solar commissioned in 2025 was paired with batteries2Reported
Solar shiftinginstalled batteries could shift about 14% of new solar generation; Chile and Australia over 50%4Reported
Durationmost projects cluster around two hours; more are four hours or longer1Reported
Water usenot published for pumped storage and thermal systems17Expert input

Couplings

  • ENE → CLI solar shifting
  • ENE ↔ INF facility siting
  • AIC → ENE backup power

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • water use by technology
  • grid service performance data

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
  • XT-17 Climate Technologies and Carbon Management

8.3Minerals, materials and supply chain

Cells depend on lithium, graphite and cobalt, and on refining that is concentrated. Lithium prices almost doubled from January 2025 to April 2026.

290thousand tons

world lithium mine production, 20255

73%

cobalt mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo6

82%

China share of natural graphite production7

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Lithiumproduction up 31% in 2025; batteries are 88% of end use5Reported
Cobaltexport quotas of up to 96,600 tons a year for 2026 and 2027624Reported
Graphitepreliminary antidumping duty of 93.50% on Chinese anode material in the United States7Reported
Refiningtop refined supplier share averaged about 72% across energy minerals in 20258Reported

Couplings

  • MIN → ENE materials
  • TRD → MIN export controls
  • FIN → MIN processing investment

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • cell capacity by country
  • recycled volumes against targets

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
  • XT-17 Climate Technologies and Carbon Management

8.4Economy, investment and workforce

Costs fell sharply in 2025 and deployment rose. Investment totals and workforce numbers are the thin parts of the evidence.

140USD per kWh

installed cost, four-hour battery, 20252

45%

fall in battery costs in 2025, Ember measure4

≈30%

fall in installed cost in 2025, IRENA measure2

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Installed costfell about 30% in 2025 to USD 140 per kWh2Reported
Battery cost indexEmber reports a fall of 45% in 2025 and 20% in 20244Reported
Outlookthe IEA stated policies scenario adds over 700 GW of battery storage from 2024 to 20309Scenario
Workforceskills gaps reported; no figure bound26Expert input

Couplings

  • FIN → ENE scale-up
  • MIN → FIN input prices
  • HLT → ENE workforce

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • investment totals
  • workforce size and skills gaps

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
  • XT-17 Climate Technologies and Carbon Management

8.5Safety, regulation and governance watch

The nearest governance questions for storage are fire safety, battery passports, recycled content and trade measures. Rules exist, and several dates fall in 2026 and 2027.

2027date

EU battery passport from 18 February10

2031date

recycled content targets for cobalt, lead, lithium, nickel10

9 Oct 2025date

China announced battery supply chain export controls8

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Battery regulationRegulation (EU) 2023/1542 applies from 18 February 2024; safety documentation for stationary systems1011Reported
Safety standardssystem safety, fire propagation testing and installation codes exist303132Reported
Incident recordone 2025 fire at a 300 MW, 1,200 MWh plant, from a secondary summary14Reported
Trade measuresexport controls announced in 2025; some suspended until November 20268Reported

Couplings

  • INF → ENE safety and siting
  • GOV → DAT battery passport
  • GOV → TRD trade measures

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • incident rates on a common basis
  • status of delegated acts

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
  • XT-17 Climate Technologies and Carbon Management

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 19Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Lithium iron phosphate battery (energy density, cycle life, market share reports). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 17Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Pumped-storage hydroelectricity (round-trip efficiency of 70 to 80%; world capacity about 200 GW in 2025 attributed to the hydropower association). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 16Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Grid energy storage (pumped storage and battery capacity in 2023 from an IEA dataset). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 18Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Sodium-ion battery (energy density figures; producer announcements of 2025; cost claims marked as needing update). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: CATL (ed.), announcement of the Naxtra sodium-ion battery brand, April 2025, known only from a secondary summary; the company news page was fetched but no article was read. Contemporary Amperex Technology, Ningde. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 20Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Flow battery (vanadium system of 100 MW and 400 MWh in Dalian, 2022). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 21Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Compressed-air energy storage (Huntorf, McIntosh and Zhangjiakou plants). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 13Form Energy (ed.), Battery technology page (iron-air system described as able to discharge for up to 100 hours). Vendor statement, weak evidence, not independently tested. Form Energy, Somerville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026, 21 April 2026 (battery costs down 45% in 2025 after 20% in 2024; deployment up 46% to an estimated 250 GWh; 14% of new solar generation shifted). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 5USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Lithium (world mine production 2025, end uses, prices, reserves). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 7USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Graphite (Natural) (China share of production, anode material imports, preliminary duties). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 24Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo production share quoted at different values from cited sources). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 9Wanner, B. (IEA), Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions, presentation slides, Energy Storage Summit, London, 18 February 2025 (slides summarising the IEA special report of 2024; storage capacity needed for tripled renewables; stated policies battery additions to 2030; lithium demand measures). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Energy (ed.), Long Duration Storage Shot, launched 2021, cited from memory; the page address returned not found. US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 11European Commission (ed.), Batteries (policy page; Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 in force 17 August 2023, applies from 18 February 2024; Delegated Regulation (EU) 2025/606 of 4 July 2025 on recycling efficiency). Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: UL Standards and Engagement (ed.), UL 9540, Energy Storage Systems and Equipment, third edition 2023, cited from memory; the catalogue page showed no document text. UL, Northbrook. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UL Standards and Engagement (ed.), UL 9540A, Test Method for Evaluating Thermal Runaway Fire Propagation in Battery Energy Storage Systems, cited from memory. UL, Northbrook. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Fire Protection Association (ed.), NFPA 855, Standard for the Installation of Stationary Energy Storage Systems, 2023 edition, cited from memory; the page showed only the title. NFPA, Quincy. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Energy Storage (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Advanced Energy Storage.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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