References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

10 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Italy’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Drought-to-flood year
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 40 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.140 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.
  3. 3ISPRA (ed.), Le emissioni di gas serra in Italia: obiettivi di riduzione e scenari emissivi. ISPRA, Rome, 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  4. 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5E. Gallo, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health,” Nature Medicine, vol. 30, pp. 3101–3105, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6ISTAT (ed.), Indicatori demografici, anno 2024. ISTAT, Rome, March 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  7. 7Terna (ed.), Consumi elettrici in Italia nel 2024: dati provvisori. Terna, Rome, January 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale di Adattamento ai Cambiamenti Climatici (PNACC). MASE, Rome, December 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  10. 10Parlamento (ed.), Legge 30 dicembre 2023, n. 213, art. 1, commi 101–111: obbligo di copertura assicurativa contro i rischi catastrofali per le imprese. Gazzetta Ufficiale, Rome, 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  11. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
  14. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  15. 15Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), Sequenza sismica del Centro Italia 2016–2017: bilancio e attività. DPC, Rome, 2017. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
  17. 17Comitato Italiano IUCN and MASE (eds.), Liste Rosse Italiane. Rome, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 8
  18. 18ISPRA (ed.), Annuario dei dati ambientali 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  19. 19K. Schneider, W. van der Werf, M. Cendoya et al., “Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117, pp. 9250–9259, 2020. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2021. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2022. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21ISPRA and SNPA (eds.), Gli indicatori del clima in Italia nel 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  23. 23CREA (ed.), Annuario dell’agricoltura italiana 2022. CREA, Rome, 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 5, chapter 8
  24. 24Autorità di bacino distrettuale del fiume Po (ed.), Osservatorio permanente sugli utilizzi idrici: bollettini di severità idrica 2022. AdBPo, Parma, 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  25. 25Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), National Risk Assessment: Overview of the Potential Major Disasters in Italy. DPC, Rome, 2018. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  26. 26A. Bondesan and R. G. Francese, “The climate-driven disaster of the Marmolada Glacier (Italy),” Geomorphology, vol. 431, 108687, 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  28. 28J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, “Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,” Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025–1028, 2010.
  30. 30P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. WMO, Geneva, March 2026.
  32. 32S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  33. 33S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  34. 34S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  35. 35S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Exponential Technology Report 2026, AI and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  36. 36S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  37. 37S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Germany Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  38. 38European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal L 243, 9 July 2021. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39EIOPA (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale Integrato per l’Energia e il Clima (PNIEC), final version. MASE, Rome, June 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Italy Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
ITANR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-NAT-ITA-2026-BL
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. ITA edition Reports Italy 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; ITA is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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