- Argentina 2026
- Chapter 1
Argentina’s risk is hydrological and fiscal at once
Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no province.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Argentina’s risk is hydrological and fiscal at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Multi-year drought with low Paraná flows
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
1.1The questions this part answers
Key questions
- Where is Argentina’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
- Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
- Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
- What must the 2027 programme measure first?
In this part
- Narrative
- Headline finding
- Lead figure
- Five system chapters
- Twelve-domain reading
- Sector screens
- Dependency matrix
- Risk objects
- Capability ladder
- Scenario
- Three lenses
- Portfolio
1.2The argument
Argentina is a large producer of grain, meat and, increasingly, oil and gas. Its systems are tied to the weather of the Pampas and the flow of the Paraná. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: drought and flood, a power and fuel system that is changing fast, and public finances that leave little room to absorb shocks.
The water layer dominates the farm economy. The 2022–23 drought cut the wheat harvest by 44% to 12.4 million tonnes, soybeans fell to 25 million tonnes, and the grain exchange put farm-sector losses at about US$33 billion12. The Paraná, the route for most grain exports, ran at its lowest flows in 118 years of record across 2019–202218. The other face of the same hydrology is flood. A storm on 7 March 2025 dropped about 290 mm of rain in twelve hours on Bahía Blanca, and sixteen deaths were reported1415.
The fire layer follows drought. Fires affected 723,765 hectares in 2022, more than twice the 2021 area, and satellite analysis put the Corrientes burn at about 1.04 million hectares1617. The wider regional picture for 2025 shows record heat, persistent drought and glacier retreat across Latin America19.
The energy layer is moving on two tracks. Low-carbon sources supplied 42% of electricity in 20258, and crude oil output passed 900,000 barrels a day in 202610. The national inventory reports 400.9 MtCO₂e including land use for 20224, and the 2025 climate contribution sets a net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 20356.
The social layer sets how much shock the country can absorb. INDEC put poverty at 32.3% of people in the first half of 20263. The ageing index reached 53 people aged 65 or over per 100 children in 2022, from 40 in 20102. The public sector operates under a US$20 billion IMF programme agreed in 202526.
This edition therefore reads Argentina’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?
The inventory total including land use was 401 MtCO₂e in 2022, and the net figure on the NDC basis was 378. The ceiling for 2030 and 2035 is 37546. The gap between the two 2022 totals is 23 MtCO₂e and reflects differing accounting scopes.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 net (BUR4) | 366 | |
| 2021 net (NDC basis) | 372 | |
| 2022 net (NDC basis) | 378 | |
| 2022 inventory incl. land use | 401 | |
| 2030 and 2035 ceiling (2025 NDC) | 375 |
Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2022.
Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-01-003
1.3Twenty couplings between five systems
The Argentina matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.
- Strong
- Moderate
- Weak
Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.
| From, to | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT Water | · | STRONG hydropower · cooling | STRONG rain-fed yield · irrigation | MODERATE drinking water | STRONG flows · wetlands |
| ENE Energy | MODERATE pumping · treatment | · | STRONG fuel · fertiliser · cold chain | STRONG facility power · cooling | MODERATE reservoirs · land use |
| FOO Food | MODERATE withdrawals · nutrients | WEAK biofuel feedstock | · | STRONG nutrition · food safety | STRONG land conversion |
| HLT Health | WEAK workforce | WEAK workforce | MODERATE labour · disease | · | WEAK residues |
| BIO Biodiversity | STRONG regulation · filtration | MODERATE fire on lines · biomass | STRONG pollination · soils | MODERATE zoonoses · smoke | · |
| Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A. | |||||
Transmission paths
- 01
CLI → WAT → FOO
Drought and low river flows cut harvests and lift export logistics costs.
- 02
CLI → WAT → INF
Record rain floods a port city and its lifelines.
Reported Bahía Blanca 202514
- 03
CLI → BIO
Dry conditions feed large fires in wetlands and savanna.
Reported Corrientes 202217
- 04
WAT → ENE
Dry years cut hydropower and raise reliance on thermal generation.
Inferred not bound for Argentina
- 05
FOO → FIN
A poor harvest cuts export earnings and public revenue.
Inferred 2022–2312
1.4Reinforcing loops
A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.
| Loop | First direction | Second direction |
|---|---|---|
| WAT and BIO | Water to biodiversity: flows · wetlands | Biodiversity to water: regulation · filtration |
| FOO and BIO | Food to biodiversity: land conversion | Biodiversity to food: pollination · soils |
| A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback. | ||
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
- 18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back
- 14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 15Municipalidad de Bahía Blanca (ed.), Casualty count for the March 2025 floods (sixteen deaths), as reported by Argentine and international press, March and October 2025. Observation year 2025. Press-reported official data.back
- 16Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego, Ministerio de Ambiente (ed.), Fire reports 2022 (723,765 hectares affected nationally), as analysed by Chequeado, “En 2022 se duplicó la superficie de hectáreas incendiadas”. Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022.back
- 17Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (ed.), Satellite monitoring of fires in Corrientes, 2022 (1,042,514 hectares), as reported by the press. INTA, Buenos Aires, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
- 19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://wmo.int/node/38574, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity profile (low-carbon share of generation 42% in 2025). Ember, London, December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://ember-energy.org/es/paises-y-regiones/argentina/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Crude oil production, July 2026 (916,200 barrels a day; +17.2% year on year to June), as reported by Infobae, 9 August 2026. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/08/09/los-records-de-vaca-muerta-acercan-a-la-argentina-al-1-de-la-produccion-petrolera-mundial/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Argentina, Addendum, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/ARG/Add.1. UNFCCC, Bonn, 22 January 2026. Observation years 2021–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/terr1_2024_ARGa01.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Announcement of Argentina’s nationally determined contribution (net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 3 November 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/484146, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03.back
- 2INDEC (ed.), Censo 2022: Indicadores demográficos por sexo y edad (ageing index 53 per 100, against 40 in 2010). INDEC, Buenos Aires, November 2023. Observation year 2022. Figure read via press summary of the report.back
- 26International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 25/095: IMF reaches staff-level agreement with Argentina on a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (US$20 billion). IMF, Washington, DC, 8 April 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/08/pr25095-argentina-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-with-argentina-on-a-48-month-eff, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42Government of Argentina (ed.), Argentina’s updated nationally determined contribution (net ceiling of 349 MtCO₂e in 2030), submitted to the UNFCCC 2 November 2021, as recorded by Climate Action Tracker. Buenos Aires, 2021. Observation year 2021.back