- Argentina 2026
- Chapter 3
Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Argentina’s risk is hydrological and fiscal at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Multi-year drought with low Paraná flows
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
WAT · Water
Hydrological years with the largest negative Paraná flow anomalies in 118 years of record
3yearsThe years 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 were the three lowest-flow years in the Timbúes record.
Reported2022Paraná flow analysis18
ENE · Energy
Low-carbon share of electricity generation
42%Close to the world average of 43%. Renewables including large hydro covered 40.2% of demand.
FOO · Food
Change in the wheat harvest in the 2022–23 drought
−44%Final harvest 12.4 million tonnes. The 2025–26 estimate rose to 25.5 million tonnes.
HLT · Health
Heat-related deaths, national season total
Not boundMinisterio de Salud · blocker: no national total retrievedA national heat-mortality series would fill this tile. None was found at evidence close.
Not boundn/aMinisterio de Salud20
BIO · Biodiversity
Land in protected areas
10.4%Marine protected area 8.5%, against 30% by 2030. An older federal system count gave 15.9% on land.
Reported2025Ecología Austral study21
SYS · Cross-system
Rain in about twelve hours at Bahía Blanca, 7 March 2025
290mmThe previous record was 167.6 mm in 1933. Sixteen deaths were reported.
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Large river basins; record low Paraná flows 2019–22; flash floods in coastal and Pampas cities. | WAT → FOO · WAT ↔ ENE | Reported EQL 4 |
| ENE | Low-carbon share 42%; oil output at a record; gas and hydro balance in dry years not bound. | ENE ← WAT · ENE → all | Reported EQL 3 |
| FOO | Major grain exporter; harvests swing with rainfall; wheat estimate record in 2025–26. | FOO ← WAT, CLI | Reported EQL 3 |
| HLT | Ageing index 53 per 100; dengue season low in 2025–26; chikungunya in the north-west. | HLT ← CLI | Reported EQL 3 |
| BIO | Protected land 10.4% and sea 8.5%; forest loss in the north reported by NGO survey. | BIO ↔ WAT, FOO | Reported EQL 3 |
| CLI | Drought, fire and flood in successive years; record rain at Bahía Blanca in 2025. | forcing on all systems | Reported EQL 4 |
| INF | River ports and grain logistics depend on Paraná depth; wider networks not mapped. | INF → all | Inferred EQL 2 |
| FIN | US$20 billion IMF programme; poverty 32.3% in H1 2026. | FIN ← CLI | Reported EQL 4 |
| DAT | Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution. | DAT → ENE, FIN | Expert input EQL 1 |
| AIC | Data-centre and compute demand on power and water not bound. | AIC → ENE, WAT | Expert input EQL 1 |
| MIN | Second-largest lithium producer in Latin America and the Caribbean. | MIN ← TRD | Reported EQL 3 |
| TRD | Grain, oil and gas exports tie national accounts to weather and prices. | TRD → all | Inferred EQL 3 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | compound drought, river and fiscal stress | drought with low river flows | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | river flows and flash floods1418 | drought; flood | PARTIAL |
| GS-02 | Energy | low-carbon share 42%8; oil record10 | dry-year power balance | PARTIAL |
| GS-03 | Food | drought loss and wheat rebound1213 | harvest swings | GOOD |
| GS-04 | Health | ageing; dengue and chikungunya220 | heat; vector-borne disease | PARTIAL |
| GS-05 | Finance | IMF programme26; poverty3 | fiscal shock cost | PARTIAL |
| GS-06 | Development | poverty 32.3%3 | service strain | PARTIAL |
| GS-07 | Climate | extremes in successive years141619 | drought, rain, fire | GOOD |
| GS-08 | Disaster | national risk-management law30 | flash flood and fire | THIN |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | river ports and grid; not mapped | low river; storms | THIN |
| GS-10 | Cities | Bahía Blanca flood1415 | urban flooding | PARTIAL |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | protected area 10.4% land21 | forest and wetland loss | PARTIAL |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | national weather and satellite records used1417 | continuity | PARTIAL |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | dependencies not yet mapped | systemic outages | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | climate law and forest law2728 | coordination across levels | PARTIAL |
| GS-15 | Science | peer-reviewed basin research18 | translation to regions | PARTIAL |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back
- 8Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity profile (low-carbon share of generation 42% in 2025). Ember, London, December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://ember-energy.org/es/paises-y-regiones/argentina/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9CAMMESA (ed.), Annual electricity demand and renewable coverage 2025 (141,249 GWh; renewables 40.21% including large hydro; 738 MW added), as reported by the generators’ chamber. CAMMESA, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2025. Read via trade press summary.back
- 12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
- 13Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Wheat estimate for 2025/26 (25.5 Mt), as reported by the press, 28 November 2025. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Estimate, not a final figure.back
- 20Ministerio de Salud (ed.), Boletín Epidemiológico Nacional: dengue and chikungunya, season 2025/26 (about 70 confirmed dengue cases; 27,178 suspected; 3,730 chikungunya cases confirmed or probable). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/504298, accessed 2026-11-03. Counts differ between press reports of the bulletin (69 and 71).back
- 21Ecología Austral (ed.), Updated protected-area database for Argentina (land 10.41%, sea 8.49%). Asociación Ecología Austral, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Read via search summary.back
- 14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 15Municipalidad de Bahía Blanca (ed.), Casualty count for the March 2025 floods (sixteen deaths), as reported by Argentine and international press, March and October 2025. Observation year 2025. Press-reported official data.back
- 10Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Crude oil production, July 2026 (916,200 barrels a day; +17.2% year on year to June), as reported by Infobae, 9 August 2026. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/08/09/los-records-de-vaca-muerta-acercan-a-la-argentina-al-1-de-la-produccion-petrolera-mundial/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2INDEC (ed.), Censo 2022: Indicadores demográficos por sexo y edad (ageing index 53 per 100, against 40 in 2010). INDEC, Buenos Aires, November 2023. Observation year 2022. Figure read via press summary of the report.back
- 26International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 25/095: IMF reaches staff-level agreement with Argentina on a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (US$20 billion). IMF, Washington, DC, 8 April 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/08/pr25095-argentina-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-with-argentina-on-a-48-month-eff, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03.back
- 16Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego, Ministerio de Ambiente (ed.), Fire reports 2022 (723,765 hectares affected nationally), as analysed by Chequeado, “En 2022 se duplicó la superficie de hectáreas incendiadas”. Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022.back
- 19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://wmo.int/node/38574, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.287, Sistema Nacional para la Gestión Integral del Riesgo y la Protección Civil. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2016. Observation year 2016.back
- 17Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (ed.), Satellite monitoring of fires in Corrientes, 2022 (1,042,514 hectares), as reported by the press. INTA, Buenos Aires, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
- 27Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.520, Presupuestos mínimos de adaptación y mitigación al cambio climático global. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
- 28Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.331, Presupuestos mínimos de protección ambiental de los bosques nativos. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2007. Observation year 2007.back