Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Argentina’s risk is hydrological and fiscal at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Multi-year drought with low Paraná flows
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a multi-year drought with low Paraná flows cut harvests, river exports, hydropower and public revenue together?

    INI-ARG-WAT-01 · drought–river–revenue test; first output: dependency graph for the Paraná basin.

  2. A-02

    How does the gas and hydro balance hold in a dry, cold year as oil and gas output grow?

    INI-ARG-ENE-02 · power in dry years; first output: generation-mix and storage register.

  3. A-03

    How exposed are grain exports to river logistics and weather together?

    INI-ARG-FOO-03 · export exposure; first output: commodity and route dependence table.

  4. A-04

    How much surge capacity do health services hold for heat and vector-borne disease?

    INI-ARG-HLT-04 · heat and vectors; first output: surge baseline for five provinces.

  5. A-05

    Where do flash floods and storms fall on uninsured households and public budgets?

    INI-ARG-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-province loss table.

  6. A-06

    How do fire and drought interact in the Paraná delta and the north-east?

    INI-ARG-BIO-01 · fire and wetlands; first output: fire-season exposure note.

  7. A-07

    How would a changed forest or glacier law alter basin risk?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only listed?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-ARG-WAT-01Drought, river and revenue test for the Paraná basinInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-ARG-ENE-02Power balance in dry yearsInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-ARG-FOO-03Grain export exposure to weather and river logisticsInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-ARG-HLT-04Heat and vector-borne disease surge baselineInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-ARG-FIN-05Flash flood and storm protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-ARG-WAT-01aParaná basin dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-ARG-2027-01Drought–river–revenue Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

Argentina is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Argentina from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-ARG-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-ARG-2027-01 · Drought–river–revenue Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
WAT-005 · Paraná flowsINI-ARG-WAT-01drought–river–revenue testPUBLIC
ENE-003 · power mixINI-ARG-ENE-02dry-year balancePUBLIC
FOO-006 · droughtINI-ARG-FOO-03export exposurePUBLIC
HLT-009 · vector-borne diseaseINI-ARG-HLT-04heat and vectorsPUBLIC
CLI-007 · Bahía BlancaINI-ARG-FIN-05 · key F reviewprotection gapPUBLIC
BIO-011 · protected landINI-ARG-BIO-01fire and wetlandsPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-ARG-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Weather and rainfall alertsServicio Meteorológico Nacionalreal timeCLI findings
River level and hydrological reportsInstituto Nacional del AguaperiodicWAT-005
Electricity demand and supplyCAMMESAdailyENE findings
Crude oil and gas outputSecretaría de EnergíamonthlyENE-004
Harvest and planting estimatesBolsa de Cereales de Buenos Airesweekly in seasonFOO-006
Fire and burned-area reportsServicio Nacional de Manejo del FuegoseasonalCLI-008
Epidemiological bulletinMinisterio de SaludweeklyHLT-009
Poverty and price seriesINDEChalf-yearly and monthlyFIN-010

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-ARG-001Record rain at Bahía Blanca on 7 March 202514CORROBORATEDCLI · WAT · INFrisk object RSK-ARG-CLI-002
SIG-ARG-002Record crude oil output in 202610CORROBORATEDENE · FINinitiative A-02
SIG-ARG-003Poverty rise in the first half of 20263CORROBORATEDFIN · HLTinitiative A-05

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  2. 10Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Crude oil production, July 2026 (916,200 barrels a day; +17.2% year on year to June), as reported by Infobae, 9 August 2026. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/08/09/los-records-de-vaca-muerta-acercan-a-la-argentina-al-1-de-la-produccion-petrolera-mundial/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Argentina Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Argentina’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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