- Argentina 2026
- Chapter 4
Risks and capability
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Argentina’s risk is hydrological and fiscal at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Multi-year drought with low Paraná flows
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
4.1Risk objects
Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.
ReportedEQL 4RSK-ARG-CLI-001
Multi-year drought and low river flows
- Driver
- rainfall deficit across the Pampas and the Paraná basin
- Exposure
- grain harvests, river ports, hydropower, public revenue
- Vulnerability
- export dependence; fiscal room under an IMF programme
- Capacity
- not bound at evidence close
- Cascade
- CLI → WAT → FOO, ENE, FIN, TRD
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
ReportedEQL 3RSK-ARG-CLI-002
Flash flood and storm in a port or river city
- Driver
- extreme rainfall over urban catchments
- Exposure
- coastal and river cities, lifelines, homes
- Vulnerability
- drainage capacity; uninsured households
- Capacity
- national risk-management law exists30; drill records not bound
- Cascade
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, FIN
- Horizon
- annual
ReportedEQL 3RSK-ARG-BIO-003
Large fire in wetlands, savanna or forest
- Driver
- drought and ignition in dry vegetation
- Exposure
- Corrientes, the Paraná delta, northern forests
- Vulnerability
- dry peat and grass; remote response
- Capacity
- national fire management service reports16
- Cascade
- CLI → BIO → HLT, WAT
- Horizon
- seasonal
InferredEQL 2RSK-ARG-HLT-004
Heat and vector-borne disease load on health services
4.2Capability ladder
Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.
| Function | Rung | Level | Strongest public evidence at baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prevention and mitigation | LISTED | national climate change law sets budgets and plans27 | |
| Monitoring and observation | EXISTS | national weather service and hydrological records used in this edition1418 | |
| Early warning | NOT BOUND | source: SMN and civil protection warning records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close | |
| Preparedness and planning | LISTED | national risk-management system created by law30; drill records not bound | |
| Redundancy and reserves | NOT BOUND | source: Secretaría de Energía and basin storage data · blocker: not retrieved | |
| Response | NOT BOUND | source: civil protection event reports · blocker: not reviewed | |
| Continuity of critical services | NOT BOUND | source: utility restoration records for Bahía Blanca · blocker: not retrieved | |
| Recovery | NOT BOUND | source: recovery and fund disbursement records · blocker: not published in the sources read | |
| Adaptation | LISTED | adaptation duties set by the climate change law27 | |
| Social protection | NOT BOUND | source: national social-protection programme data · blocker: not reviewed | |
| Finance and insurance | NOT BOUND | source: insurance regulator loss and cover data · blocker: not retrieved | |
| Institutional coordination | LISTED | national risk-management system and climate cabinet created by law2730 | |
| Technical infrastructure | NOT BOUND | source: grid and port asset registers · blocker: not mapped at public-safe resolution | |
| Workforce | NOT BOUND | source: health and civil protection workforce data · blocker: not reviewed | |
| Research capacity | EXISTS | peer-reviewed flow analysis of the Paraná basin published18 | |
| A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline. | |||
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 30Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.287, Sistema Nacional para la Gestión Integral del Riesgo y la Protección Civil. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2016. Observation year 2016.back
- 16Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego, Ministerio de Ambiente (ed.), Fire reports 2022 (723,765 hectares affected nationally), as analysed by Chequeado, “En 2022 se duplicó la superficie de hectáreas incendiadas”. Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022.back
- 2INDEC (ed.), Censo 2022: Indicadores demográficos por sexo y edad (ageing index 53 per 100, against 40 in 2010). INDEC, Buenos Aires, November 2023. Observation year 2022. Figure read via press summary of the report.back
- 20Ministerio de Salud (ed.), Boletín Epidemiológico Nacional: dengue and chikungunya, season 2025/26 (about 70 confirmed dengue cases; 27,178 suspected; 3,730 chikungunya cases confirmed or probable). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/504298, accessed 2026-11-03. Counts differ between press reports of the bulletin (69 and 71).back
- 27Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.520, Presupuestos mínimos de adaptación y mitigación al cambio climático global. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
- 14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back