Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables13 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Argentina’s risk is hydrological and fiscal at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Multi-year drought with low Paraná flows
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Argentina (República Argentina) enters 2027 with 46.2 million residents1, an ageing index that rose from 40 to 53 people aged 65 or over per 100 children in twelve years2, and a poverty rate that INDEC put at 32.3% of people in the first half of 2026, up from 28.2% in the second half of 20253. Its risks come from water and from fuel. The 2022–23 drought cut the wheat harvest by 44% and, by the grain exchange’s estimate, cost the farm sector about US$33 billion12. Paraná River flows in 2019–2022 were the lowest in 118 years of record18, and a storm in March 2025 dropped about 290 mm of rain in twelve hours on Bahía Blanca, against a previous record of 167.6 mm14. On energy, low-carbon sources supplied 42% of electricity in 20258 while crude oil output passed 900,000 barrels a day in 202610. The national inventory reports 400.9 MtCO₂e including land use for 20224, and the 2025 climate contribution sets a net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 20356. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Argentina’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which drought, flood, fire and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing and compares no one.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Argentina baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. 400.9 MtCO₂e in 2022 including land use; 377.8 net on the contribution basis. Later years are not bound.4

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. 375 MtCO₂e net for 2030 and 2035, announced November 2025.6

    What is the climate ceiling?Reported

  3. Low-carbon sources gave 42% of electricity in 2025.8

    How secure is power?Reported

  4. The 2022–23 drought cut wheat by 44%. A record wheat harvest was estimated for 2025–26.1213

    How secure is food?Reported

  5. Paraná flows in 2019–2022 were the lowest in 118 years of record.18

    How exposed is water?Reported

  6. A record storm can overwhelm a port city in hours.1415

    What did Bahía Blanca show?Reported

  7. Poverty was 32.3% of people in the first half of 2026.3

    Who carries the strain?Reported

  8. A multi-year drought with low river flows hitting harvests, exports, hydropower and revenue. SCN-ARG-DRT-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

The 2022–23 drought cut the wheat harvest by 44% to 12.4 million tonnes and soybeans to 25 million tonnes, the lowest in 23 years, and the grain exchange put farm-sector losses at about US$33 billion.

Figure S.1Harvest estimates, 2022–23 drought (million tonnes)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Wheat12.4
Soybeans25
Maize36

Source: Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires, as reported12. Soybean and maize figures are estimates made during the season.

Grain exports carry foreign-currency earnings and public revenue. A drought that cuts the harvest also cuts both, and low river flows add a logistics cost on the Paraná1218.

S.4At a glance

46.2million

population, 20221

53per 100

people aged 65+ per 100 aged 0–14, 20222

400.9MtCO₂e

inventory total incl. land use, 20224

42%

low-carbon share of electricity, 20258

10.4%

land protected, 202521

32.3%

people below the poverty line, H1 20263

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Argentina’s risk: water extremes dominate the farm economy, the energy system is changing, and public finances limit the buffer.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a price rise, a flood or a dry season.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Grain earnings carry public revenue, and the IMF programme frames fiscal room.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Argentina holds long weather and river records, and thinner evidence on storage, reserves and service continuity.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Argentina’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC) (ed.), Censo Nacional de Población, Hogares y Viviendas 2022: resultados definitivos (46,234,830 inhabitants; reference date 1 July 2022). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022. Read via press reports of the release, 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2INDEC (ed.), Censo 2022: Indicadores demográficos por sexo y edad (ageing index 53 per 100, against 40 in 2010). INDEC, Buenos Aires, November 2023. Observation year 2022. Figure read via press summary of the report.back
  3. 3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03.back
  4. 12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
  5. 18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back
  6. 14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  7. 8Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity profile (low-carbon share of generation 42% in 2025). Ember, London, December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://ember-energy.org/es/paises-y-regiones/argentina/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 10Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Crude oil production, July 2026 (916,200 barrels a day; +17.2% year on year to June), as reported by Infobae, 9 August 2026. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/08/09/los-records-de-vaca-muerta-acercan-a-la-argentina-al-1-de-la-produccion-petrolera-mundial/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 4UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Argentina, Addendum, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/ARG/Add.1. UNFCCC, Bonn, 22 January 2026. Observation years 2021–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/terr1_2024_ARGa01.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 6Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Announcement of Argentina’s nationally determined contribution (net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 3 November 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/484146, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 13Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Wheat estimate for 2025/26 (25.5 Mt), as reported by the press, 28 November 2025. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Estimate, not a final figure.back
  12. 15Municipalidad de Bahía Blanca (ed.), Casualty count for the March 2025 floods (sixteen deaths), as reported by Argentine and international press, March and October 2025. Observation year 2025. Press-reported official data.back
  13. 21Ecología Austral (ed.), Updated protected-area database for Argentina (land 10.41%, sea 8.49%). Asociación Ecología Austral, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Read via search summary.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Argentina Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Argentina’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Argentina.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskCountry Systems Risk and Resilience

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices