- Argentina 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Argentina’s risk is hydrological and fiscal at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Multi-year drought with low Paraná flows
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of Argentina’s risk: water extremes dominate the farm economy, the energy system is changing, and public finances limit the buffer. Evidence is strongest for emissions, harvests and storms, and weakest for reservoir storage, heat deaths and lifeline continuity.
CLI-001 · FOO-006 · WAT-005 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a price rise, a flood or a dry season. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how poverty at 32.3% changes who can absorb a bad harvest or a flooded home.
FIN-010 · CLI-007 · HLT-009
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Grain earnings carry public revenue, and the IMF programme frames fiscal room26. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or a recommendation.
FIN-010 · FOO-006
NEXUS
Synthesis
Argentina holds long weather and river records, and thinner evidence on storage, reserves and service continuity. The 2027 programme should test the drought–river–revenue chain, map the gas and hydro balance in dry years and bind a national heat-mortality series.
SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Argentina. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability have been developed? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests reveal? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What did the year establish, and what changes next? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Argentina | national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups | national Commons room |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Argentina’s grain earnings rise and fall with rain and river levels. The baseline treats drought and low flows as one coupled problem, not as separate agriculture and logistics issues.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Water decides the farm economy
The country that lost a wheat crop to drought also saw a year of rain fall in hours on one port city. Planning for one without the other leaves a gap.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Flood is the other face of the same hydrology
Low-carbon power and record oil output sit side by side. Dry-year power balance and gas storage are the evidence still missing.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Energy is changing faster than its evidence
Households with little margin absorb a bad harvest or a flood badly. Every risk object in this edition is read through that lens.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Poverty sets the size of the buffer
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First Q1 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | National risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | NWG delivery register | no groups yet | first monthly outputs |
| E5 | NNC capability register | membership opens in Q1 2027 | first contributions |
| E6 | NLC questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | environment prepared | first sealed cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first correction cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- SUBMITTED
- UNDER REVIEW
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Agreement · climate contribution, net ceiling 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035635 | UNFCCC · Argentina | national | ANNOUNCED 2025 | emissions pathway |
| Law 27.520 on minimum budgets for climate change adaptation and mitigation27 | Government of Argentina | national | IN FORCE | climate governance |
| Law 26.331 on minimum budgets for native forests28 | Government of Argentina | national | IN FORCE | forest protection |
| Law 27.191 on renewable energy29 | Government of Argentina | national | IN FORCE | power mix |
| Law 27.287 national risk-management system30 | Government of Argentina | national | IN FORCE | disaster management |
| Law 26.639 on glacier preservation31 | Government of Argentina | national | IN FORCE · AMENDMENT STATUS NOT VERIFIED | water sources |
| Law 25.675 general environmental law41 | Government of Argentina | national | IN FORCE | environmental baseline |
| Kunming-Montreal Framework34 | CBD | international | ADOPTED 2022 | 30by30 |
| Sendai Framework33 | UNDRR | international | ADOPTED 2015 | disaster risk reduction |
Changed since 2024
- The climate contribution announced in November 2025 sets a net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 20356
- The IMF agreed a 48-month programme in 2025 and reached staff-level agreement on its second review in April 20262644
- The UNFCCC technical review of the first transparency report was published in January 20264
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about Argentina’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee and Romero (eds.)32 | assessment | 2023 | context | forcing |
| McElwee et al. (eds.)36 | assessment | 2024 | framework | nexus interlinkages |
| Zscheischler et al.37 | journal article | 2018 | framework | compound events |
| WMO regional report19 | assessment | 2026 | supports | regional extremes |
| Paraná flow analysis18 | journal article | 2022 | supports | low flows |
| Foundational Edition39 | Reports | 2026 | framework | method |
| Global baseline40 | Reports | 2026 | framework | global anchor |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNFCCC technical review4 | UNFCCC | 2026 | supports | inventory |
| Fourth Biennial Update Report5 | Ministry of Environment | 2021 | supports | emissions |
| IMF programme release26 | IMF | 2025 | context | fiscal |
| IEA energy overview11 | IEA | 2023 | context | energy |
| Deforestation report24 | IFPRI | 2025 | supports | forests |
| World Health Statistics38 | WHO | 2025 | context | health |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Census 20221 | INDEC | 2022 | supports | profile |
| Demographic indicators2 | INDEC | 2023 | supports | ageing |
| Poverty release3 | INDEC | 2026 | supports | social strain |
| Epidemiological bulletin20 | Ministerio de Salud | 2026 | supports | vector-borne disease |
| Climate contribution page6 | Government of Argentina | 2025 | supports | targets |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvest estimates1213 | Bolsa de Cereales | 2023–25 | supports | food |
| Fire statistics16 | SNMF via Chequeado | 2023 | supports | fire |
| Electricity data89 | Ember · CAMMESA | 2025 | supports | power |
| Protected-area studies2122 | Ecología Austral · WCS | 2025 | supports | biodiversity |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 26International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 25/095: IMF reaches staff-level agreement with Argentina on a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (US$20 billion). IMF, Washington, DC, 8 April 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/08/pr25095-argentina-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-with-argentina-on-a-48-month-eff, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Announcement of Argentina’s nationally determined contribution (net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 3 November 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/484146, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
- 27Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.520, Presupuestos mínimos de adaptación y mitigación al cambio climático global. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
- 28Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.331, Presupuestos mínimos de protección ambiental de los bosques nativos. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2007. Observation year 2007.back
- 29Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.191, Régimen de fomento nacional para el uso de fuentes renovables de energía destinada a la producción de energía eléctrica. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
- 30Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.287, Sistema Nacional para la Gestión Integral del Riesgo y la Protección Civil. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2016. Observation year 2016.back
- 31Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.639, Régimen de presupuestos mínimos para la preservación de los glaciares y del ambiente periglacial. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2010. Observation year 2010. Amendment status not verified.back
- 41Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 25.675, Ley General del Ambiente. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2002. Observation year 2002.back
- 34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
- 33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
- 44International Monetary Fund (ed.), Argentina: second review under the Extended Fund Facility, staff-level agreement, as reported by MercoPress, 15 April 2026. IMF, Washington, DC, 2026. Observation year 2026. Context only.back
- 4UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Argentina, Addendum, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/ARG/Add.1. UNFCCC, Bonn, 22 January 2026. Observation years 2021–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/terr1_2024_ARGa01.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Argentina: targets. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, data as of June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/argentina/targets/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23Greenpeace Argentina (ed.), Informe anual de deforestación en el norte de Argentina 2025 (94,204 hectares of native forest cleared; 116,498 hectares burned). Greenpeace Argentina, Buenos Aires, February 2026. Observation year 2025. NGO survey, not an official series.back
- 32H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
- 36P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
- 37J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018.back
- 19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://wmo.int/node/38574, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back
- 39S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
- 40S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
- 5Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible (ed.), Cuarto Informe Bienal de Actualización de la República Argentina a la CMNUCC (BUR4). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2021. Observation year 2018. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/4to%20Informe%20Bienal%20de%20la%20Rep%C3%BAblica%20Argentina.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11International Energy Agency (ed.), Latin America Energy Outlook, Overview: Argentina. IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation years 2021–2022. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/1fe309e7-95f1-48a8-b32f-4bea94de4fbe/Argentinaenergyprofile_EN.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24N. Jorge (ed.), Argentina report on deforestation 2000–2024. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, 5 September 2025. Observation years 2000–2024. Listed via the FAO AGRIS record; not read in full.back
- 38World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2025. Context only.back
- 1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC) (ed.), Censo Nacional de Población, Hogares y Viviendas 2022: resultados definitivos (46,234,830 inhabitants; reference date 1 July 2022). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022. Read via press reports of the release, 2026-11-03.back
- 2INDEC (ed.), Censo 2022: Indicadores demográficos por sexo y edad (ageing index 53 per 100, against 40 in 2010). INDEC, Buenos Aires, November 2023. Observation year 2022. Figure read via press summary of the report.back
- 3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03.back
- 20Ministerio de Salud (ed.), Boletín Epidemiológico Nacional: dengue and chikungunya, season 2025/26 (about 70 confirmed dengue cases; 27,178 suspected; 3,730 chikungunya cases confirmed or probable). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/504298, accessed 2026-11-03. Counts differ between press reports of the bulletin (69 and 71).back
- 12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
- 13Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Wheat estimate for 2025/26 (25.5 Mt), as reported by the press, 28 November 2025. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Estimate, not a final figure.back
- 16Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego, Ministerio de Ambiente (ed.), Fire reports 2022 (723,765 hectares affected nationally), as analysed by Chequeado, “En 2022 se duplicó la superficie de hectáreas incendiadas”. Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022.back
- 8Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity profile (low-carbon share of generation 42% in 2025). Ember, London, December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://ember-energy.org/es/paises-y-regiones/argentina/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9CAMMESA (ed.), Annual electricity demand and renewable coverage 2025 (141,249 GWh; renewables 40.21% including large hydro; 738 MW added), as reported by the generators’ chamber. CAMMESA, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2025. Read via trade press summary.back
- 21Ecología Austral (ed.), Updated protected-area database for Argentina (land 10.41%, sea 8.49%). Asociación Ecología Austral, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Read via search summary.back
- 22Wildlife Conservation Society Argentina (ed.), Protected-area coverage and strict protection (about 2.2% of land and 5.8% of sea). WCS Argentina, Buenos Aires, June 2025. Observation year 2025.back