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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables20 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Argentina’s risk is hydrological and fiscal at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Multi-year drought with low Paraná flows
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Argentina’s farm and export economy runs on rain and on the Paraná. Low flows, flash floods and drought are the binding water risks. Drinking-water coverage was not bound at evidence close.

118years

of Paraná record, lowest flows 2019–2218

290mm

rain in 12 hours at Bahía Blanca, 202514

Not boundJMP

drinking-water coverage46

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Low flowslargest negative anomalies in 118 years of record18Reported
Flash floodrecord rain at Bahía Blanca, sixteen deaths reported1415Reported
Glaciersglacier preservation law in force31Reported
Coveragewater and sanitation coverage by province46NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → FOO rainfall and river flow
  • WAT → ENE hydropower
  • CLI → WAT drought and heavy rain
  • WAT → HLT drinking water

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • reservoir and aquifer storage
  • drinking-water and sanitation coverage

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Low-carbon sources supplied 42% of electricity in 2025, and crude oil output passed 900,000 barrels a day in 2026. Dry-year power balance and gas output were not bound.

42%

low-carbon share of electricity, 20258

916,200barrels a day

crude oil, Jul 202610

738MW

new renewable capacity, 20259

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Power mixlow-carbon 42% of electricity8Reported
Demand141,249 GWh, with renewables covering 40.2%9Reported
Oilrecord output led by shale1011Reported
Gas outputofficial series not retrieved47NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → ENE hydropower
  • ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
  • CLI → ENE peak demand
  • BIO → ENE fire on lines

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • gas production series
  • dry-year hydropower shortfall

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Argentina is a large grain exporter, and harvests swing with rainfall. The 2022–23 drought cut wheat by 44%, and a record wheat harvest was estimated for 2025–26.

44%

wheat fall, 2022–2312

12.4Mt

wheat harvest, 2022–2312

25.5Mt

wheat estimate, 2025–2613

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Drought losswheat 12.4 Mt, soybeans 25 Mt, maize 36 Mt12Reported
Lossesabout US$33 billion, grain exchange estimate12Reported
Reboundwheat estimate 25.5 Mt for 2025–2613Reported
Trade flowsmaize and feed trade volumes not retrieved47NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → FOO rain and irrigation
  • ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
  • CLI → FOO heat and drought

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • final 2025–26 harvest
  • export volumes by route

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Argentina is an ageing country, and its health services face vector-borne disease and, in some seasons, heat. A national heat-mortality series was not bound at evidence close.

53per 100

ageing index, 20222

≈70cases

dengue confirmed, 2025–2620

3,730cases

chikungunya, 2025–2620

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Ageingindex of 53 per 100, from 40 in 20102Reported
Dengueabout 70 confirmed against 27,178 suspected20Reported
Chikungunya3,730 confirmed or probable, mostly north-west20Reported
Heat deathsnational season total not retrieved20NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat and vectors
  • WAT → HLT drinking water
  • ENE → HLT cooling and power

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • heat deaths
  • surge capacity in health services

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Protected areas cover about 10.4% of land and 8.5% of the sea, well short of the 30% goal, and fire and clearing continue in the north. Official forest area was not bound.

10.4%

of land protected, 202521

8.5%

of sea protected, 202521

30%

target by 203034

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Protectionland 10.41%, sea 8.49%; older federal count gave 15.9% on land2122Reported
Strict protectionabout 2.2% of land and 5.8% of sea22Reported
Clearing94,204 hectares cleared in the north in 2025, NGO survey23Reported
Forest areaofficial area and loss not retrieved; the Chaco region holds about 31.6 million hectares of native forest4525NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT forest and watershed regulation
  • BIO → FOO pollination and soils
  • CLI → BIO drought and fire

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • official forest area and loss
  • wetland condition

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back
  2. 14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  3. 46World Health Organization and UNICEF (eds.), Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene: Argentina country file. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Observation year 2024. Source that would fill the water-coverage gap; not retrieved.back
  4. 15Municipalidad de Bahía Blanca (ed.), Casualty count for the March 2025 floods (sixteen deaths), as reported by Argentine and international press, March and October 2025. Observation year 2025. Press-reported official data.back
  5. 31Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.639, Régimen de presupuestos mínimos para la preservación de los glaciares y del ambiente periglacial. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2010. Observation year 2010. Amendment status not verified.back
  6. 8Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity profile (low-carbon share of generation 42% in 2025). Ember, London, December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://ember-energy.org/es/paises-y-regiones/argentina/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 10Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Crude oil production, July 2026 (916,200 barrels a day; +17.2% year on year to June), as reported by Infobae, 9 August 2026. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/08/09/los-records-de-vaca-muerta-acercan-a-la-argentina-al-1-de-la-produccion-petrolera-mundial/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 9CAMMESA (ed.), Annual electricity demand and renewable coverage 2025 (141,249 GWh; renewables 40.21% including large hydro; 738 MW added), as reported by the generators’ chamber. CAMMESA, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2025. Read via trade press summary.back
  9. 11International Energy Agency (ed.), Latin America Energy Outlook, Overview: Argentina. IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation years 2021–2022. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/1fe309e7-95f1-48a8-b32f-4bea94de4fbe/Argentinaenergyprofile_EN.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 47Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Balance energético nacional and gas production series. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the gas-output and trade-flow gaps; not retrieved at evidence close.back
  11. 12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
  12. 13Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Wheat estimate for 2025/26 (25.5 Mt), as reported by the press, 28 November 2025. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Estimate, not a final figure.back
  13. 2INDEC (ed.), Censo 2022: Indicadores demográficos por sexo y edad (ageing index 53 per 100, against 40 in 2010). INDEC, Buenos Aires, November 2023. Observation year 2022. Figure read via press summary of the report.back
  14. 20Ministerio de Salud (ed.), Boletín Epidemiológico Nacional: dengue and chikungunya, season 2025/26 (about 70 confirmed dengue cases; 27,178 suspected; 3,730 chikungunya cases confirmed or probable). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/504298, accessed 2026-11-03. Counts differ between press reports of the bulletin (69 and 71).back
  15. 21Ecología Austral (ed.), Updated protected-area database for Argentina (land 10.41%, sea 8.49%). Asociación Ecología Austral, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Read via search summary.back
  16. 34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  17. 22Wildlife Conservation Society Argentina (ed.), Protected-area coverage and strict protection (about 2.2% of land and 5.8% of sea). WCS Argentina, Buenos Aires, June 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  18. 23Greenpeace Argentina (ed.), Informe anual de deforestación en el norte de Argentina 2025 (94,204 hectares of native forest cleared; 116,498 hectares burned). Greenpeace Argentina, Buenos Aires, February 2026. Observation year 2025. NGO survey, not an official series.back
  19. 45Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025: Argentina country report. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2025. Source that would fill the forest-area gap; not reached at evidence close.back
  20. 25Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria and Ministerio de Ambiente (eds.), Segundo Inventario Nacional de Bosques Nativos (Parque Chaqueño about 31.6 million hectares of native forest), as summarised by CGIAR. Buenos Aires, 2020s. Observation year to be confirmed. Used as context only.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Argentina Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Argentina’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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