- Argentina 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Argentina’s risk is hydrological and fiscal at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Multi-year drought with low Paraná flows
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Gap between 2022 inventory total and net on NDC basis | 400.9 − 377.8 | ≈ 23.1 MtCO₂e |
| (2) | Net 2022 against 2030 and 2035 ceiling | 377.8 − 375 | ≈ 2.8 MtCO₂e |
| (3) | Poverty change, H2 2025 to H1 2026 | 32.3 − 28.2 | 4.1 points |
| (4) | Ageing index change, 2010 to 2022 | 53 − 40 | 13 per 100 |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, National Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-ARG-NATIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent Argentina as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- national scale; not for province or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
9strong
documented within one season
7moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-ARG-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 47 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-ARG-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | qualified source bindings with versions |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | National Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to the cut |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 2022 | Nov 2023 | decennial | next census |
| Poverty | H1 2026 | Sep 2026 | half-yearly | Mar 2027 |
| GHG inventory (reviewed) | 2022 | Jan 2026 | biennial | next transparency report |
| Climate contribution | 2025 | Nov 2025 | periodic | next update |
| Electricity mix | 2025 | Dec 2025 | annual | annual |
| Crude oil output | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | monthly | monthly |
| Wheat estimate | 2025–26 | Nov 2025 | weekly | season close |
| Dengue season | 2025–26 | Sep 2026 | weekly | season close |
| Protected areas | 2025 | 2025 | irregular | not scheduled |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Climate forcing | GOOD | regional rainfall extremes |
| Food | GOOD | export routes and fertiliser |
| Energy | PARTIAL | dry-year balance and storage |
| Water | PARTIAL | basin storage and sanitation |
| Health | PARTIAL | heat deaths |
| Biodiversity | PARTIAL | official forest loss |
| Finance | PARTIAL | insurance cover |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the UNFCCC secretariat review team on 22 January 2026. Reviews the 2022 inventory and the NDC tracking tables. Role: binds CLI-001 and the 2022 totals.
EVD-ARG-001
Technical review of the first biennial transparency report4
Issued by INDEC on 24 September 2026. Half-yearly, 31 urban agglomerations, projected nationally. Role: binds FIN-010. Primary release retrieved only through press summaries at evidence close.
EVD-ARG-002
Poverty and indigence release, first half 20263
| Dimension | EVD-ARG-001 | EVD-ARG-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | all sectors and gases reported | urban agglomerations only, projected |
| Timeliness | about 3 years after the inventory year | about 3 months after the period |
| Revision | inventory back-revised each cycle | half-yearly series |
| Method transparency | review text public | method public; not read in full |
| External validation | expert review team | national statistics authority |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| BCBA | Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (Buenos Aires Grain Exchange) |
| BUR4 | Fourth Biennial Update Report |
| CAMMESA | Compañía Administradora del Mercado Mayorista Eléctrico |
| INA | Instituto Nacional del Agua |
| INDEC | Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (National Institute of Statistics and Censuses) |
| INTA | Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria |
| NDC | nationally determined contribution |
| SMN | Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (National Weather Service) |
| SNMF | Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego (National Fire Management Service) |
| UNFCCC | United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the baseline indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-ARG-DRT-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | Q1 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | Q2 2027 |
| A.7 | Provincial notes | atlas cards for every province | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition, net greenhouse-gas emissions on the NDC basis
- Construct
- annual emissions minus removals, on the basis used to track the climate contribution
- Unit
- MtCO₂e
- Scope
- calendar year, national
- Source
- UNFCCC technical review4
- Revision
- back-revised at each transparency report
- Known limits
- differs from the inventory total including land use by about 23 MtCO₂e in 2022
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 4UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Argentina, Addendum, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/ARG/Add.1. UNFCCC, Bonn, 22 January 2026. Observation years 2021–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/terr1_2024_ARGa01.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03.back
- 45Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025: Argentina country report. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2025. Source that would fill the forest-area gap; not reached at evidence close.back
- 46World Health Organization and UNICEF (eds.), Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene: Argentina country file. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Observation year 2024. Source that would fill the water-coverage gap; not retrieved.back
- 47Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Balance energético nacional and gas production series. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the gas-output and trade-flow gaps; not retrieved at evidence close.back
- 20Ministerio de Salud (ed.), Boletín Epidemiológico Nacional: dengue and chikungunya, season 2025/26 (about 70 confirmed dengue cases; 27,178 suspected; 3,730 chikungunya cases confirmed or probable). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/504298, accessed 2026-11-03. Counts differ between press reports of the bulletin (69 and 71).back