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Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables19 notesNR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Brazil’s risk runs through water, forest and fire
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Biodiversity
    4. 2.4 Energy
    5. 2.5 Water
    6. 2.6 Food
    7. 2.7 Health
    8. 2.8 Finance
    9. 2.9 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

The 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods affected about 2.4 million people in 478 of the state’s 497 municipalities, and the joint assessment estimates their effects at R$88.9 billion, 69% of it in productive sectors.

Figure 2.1Estimated effects of the 2024 floods by sector group (R$ billion)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Productive sectors61
Social sectors19
Infrastructure7
Environment1.6

Source: World Bank, IDB and ECLAC Damage and Loss Assessment15. Total R$88.9 billion.

Implication

Floods in one state hit production, housing and lifelines at once. The assessment reports that visible damage is only about half of the economic effect, with the rest in lost output and cascading losses to small firms and farms15. The state’s civil defence recorded 185 confirmed deaths, 23 people missing and a peak of 581,638 displaced people16.

What would move it

Progress on levees and pumping, the next rainy season in the south, early warning coverage and updated master plans would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Gross greenhouse-gas emissions fell 16.7% in 2024 to 2,145 Mt CO₂e, led by lower land-use change; net emissions were 1.49 Gt CO₂e. SEEG is a civil-society estimate, not the official inventory.9

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    The 2035 target is a net reduction of 59 to 67% below 2005, equal to 0.85 to 1.05 Gt CO₂e on the latest inventory data.8

2.3Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-BIO-003

    The PRODES estimate for the Amazon was 5,796 km² for August 2024 to July 2025, 11.08% below the previous year; MapBiomas counted 984,794 hectares lost nationally in 2025, 20.6% fewer than in 2024.1112

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-BIO-004

    About 30 million hectares burned in 2024 and about 12.7 million in 2025, against an annual mean of 18.4 million.1314

2.4Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

    Renewables supplied 86.8% of electricity in 2025. Hydropower fell 4.8% to 401.4 TWh while gas generation rose 22.7%, and wind and solar together supplied 26.4%.10

2.5Water

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

    The Negro River at Manaus fell to 12.70 m in October 2023 and to 12.66 m in October 2024, record lows in a gauge record from 1902.2144

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

    The 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods affected about 2.4 million people in 478 of 497 municipalities and caused 185 confirmed deaths; effects are estimated at R$88.9 billion.1516

2.6Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008

    The 2025/26 grain harvest is estimated at 360.8 Mt on 83.5 million hectares, and agricultural value added grew 11.7% in 2025.324

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

    Brazil stayed outside the FAO Hunger Map; moderate or severe food insecurity was 9.6% in 2023 to 2025, and 3.2% of households were in severe insecurity in 2024.67

2.7Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

    Dengue caused 6,484,890 probable cases and 5,972 confirmed deaths in 2024; WHO had already counted 6.3 million suspected cases in Brazil by 30 April. Life expectancy reached 76.6 years.51745

2.8Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

    General government gross debt was 93.3% of GDP in 2025 on IMF definitions, with the policy rate at 14.0% at end-2025.46

2.9Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a strong El Niño drought that lowers Amazon rivers and hydropower while fire and thermal dispatch rise together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
  2. 16Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), “Situação nos municípios,” SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).back
  3. 9Observatório do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: Análise das emissões brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implicações para as metas climáticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observatório do Clima, São Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.back
  4. 8Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Brasília, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).back
  5. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
  6. 12MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relatório Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, São Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  7. 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
  8. 14MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edição do Relatório Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, “Área queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milhões de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,” July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  9. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  10. 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.back
  11. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
  12. 3Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), “PIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilhões,” Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  13. 24Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11º Levantamento da Safra de Grãos 2025/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Agência Brasil. CONAB, Brasília. Observation year: 2025/26 (agency estimate).back
  14. 6Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua: Segurança Alimentar 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 10 October 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
  15. 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025.back
  16. 5Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Tábuas Completas de Mortalidade 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 November 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
  17. 17Ministério da Saúde (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Agência Brasil, “Casos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milhões; mortes somam 5,9 mil,” January 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
  18. 45World Health Organization (ed.), “Dengue: global situation,” Disease Outbreak News, 2024-DON518. WHO, Geneva, 30 May 2024. Observation year: 2024 (to 30 April).back
  19. 46International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,” Press Release No. 26/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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