Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

7 min read1 figure0 tables17 notesNR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Brazil’s risk runs through water, forest and fire
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Brazil (Brasil) enters 2027 with 214.2 million residents1, an electricity system that was 86.8% renewable in 202510 and a sharp fall in forest loss. Gross greenhouse-gas emissions fell 16.7% in 2024 to 2,145 Mt CO₂e, driven by lower deforestation, while net emissions of 1.49 Gt CO₂e remain above the 0.85 to 1.05 Gt range set for 203589. The Amazon deforestation estimate for August 2024 to July 2025 was 5,796 km², 11.08% below the year before11. Water, drought and fire are the main stressors. The Negro River at Manaus reached record lows in 2023 and 20242144, about 30 million hectares burned in 202413, and the 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul affected about 2.4 million people, with effects estimated at R$88.9 billion1516. Hydropower fell 4.8% in 2025 while gas generation rose 22.7%10. Hunger has eased: Brazil stayed outside the FAO Hunger Map7, and 23.1% of people lived below the poverty line in 20244. Dengue caused 5,972 confirmed deaths in 202417. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Brazil’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which drought, flood, fire and price shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. Several values could not be bound at evidence close and are shown as designed empty states, each naming the source that would fill it. The edition ranks nothing and decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Brazil baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. 2,145 Mt CO₂e gross in 2024, 16.7% below 2023; 1.49 Gt net.9

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. A net cut of 59 to 67% below 2005, or 0.85 to 1.05 Gt CO₂e.8

    What is the 2035 target?Reported

  3. PRODES estimate 5,796 km², 11.08% below the year before; fire burned 12.7 million hectares nationally in 2025.1114

    How is the Amazon changing?Reported

  4. 86.8% renewable, but hydropower is about half of generation and fell 4.8% in 2025.10

    How secure is power?Reported

  5. About 2.4 million people affected and R$88.9 billion in estimated effects in one state.1516

    What did the 2024 floods show?Reported

  6. Harvest estimate of 360.8 Mt, 2.4% above the previous crop year; Brazil outside the FAO Hunger Map.724

    How secure is food?Reported

  7. Dengue is bound; heat-attributable deaths were not bound at evidence close. Ministry of Health

    Is heat now a health hazard?Not bound

  8. A strong El Niño drought across Amazon rivers, hydropower and fire. SCN-BRA-DRT-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

The 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods affected about 2.4 million people in 478 of the state’s 497 municipalities, and the joint assessment estimates their effects at R$88.9 billion, 69% of it in productive sectors.

Figure S.1Estimated effects of the 2024 floods by sector group (R$ billion)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Productive sectors61
Social sectors19
Infrastructure7
Environment1.6

Source: World Bank, IDB and ECLAC Damage and Loss Assessment15. Total R$88.9 billion.

Floods in one state hit production, housing and lifelines at once. The assessment reports that visible damage is only about half of the economic effect, with the rest in lost output and cascading losses to small firms and farms15. The state’s civil defence recorded 185 confirmed deaths, 23 people missing and a peak of 581,638 displaced people16.

S.4At a glance

214.2million

population, 1 July 20261

10.9%

aged 65 or over, 2022 (derived)2

2,145Mt CO₂e

gross emissions, 20249

86.8%

renewable electricity, 202510

2.3%

GDP growth, 20253

27federative units

26 states and the Federal District

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Brazil’s risk: drought, flood and fire share one hydrological cycle, and power, food and logistics depend on it.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a flood, a smoke-filled season or a dengue wave.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. General government gross debt was 93.3% of GDP in 2025, climate-risk rules for banks have applied since 2022, and an emissions trading system has been legislated.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Brazil has world-class monitoring of forests and a very clean grid, and thinner evidence on reserves, continuity and heat health.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Brazil’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Estimativas da população residente no Brasil e unidades da federação com data de referência em 1º de julho de 2026 (SIDRA table 6579). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 August 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
  2. 10Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026: Relatório Síntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Ministério de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  3. 8Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Brasília, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).back
  4. 9Observatório do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: Análise das emissões brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implicações para as metas climáticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observatório do Clima, São Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.back
  5. 11Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal para 2025 é de 5.796 km², Nota técnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, São José dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).back
  6. 21Serviço Geológico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, “Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,” October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.back
  7. 44J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., “The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
  8. 13MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relatório Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, São Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
  9. 15World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), “BID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atuação tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,” press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Brasília, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
  10. 16Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), “Situação nos municípios,” SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).back
  11. 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025.back
  12. 4Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Síntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.back
  13. 17Ministério da Saúde (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Agência Brasil, “Casos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milhões; mortes somam 5,9 mil,” January 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
  14. 14MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edição do Relatório Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, “Área queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milhões de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,” July 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
  15. 24Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11º Levantamento da Safra de Grãos 2025/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Agência Brasil. CONAB, Brasília. Observation year: 2025/26 (agency estimate).back
  16. 2Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), Censo Demográfico 2022: população residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.back
  17. 3Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (ed.), “PIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilhões,” Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Brazil’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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